7 / 8 months into 2024 (Halving, Bitcoin ETF, FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, and Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Roger Ver (Bitcoin Jesus), Ethereum ETF, Mt. Gox repayments, Donald Trump speaks at Bitcoin Conference 2024 Strategic Reserve)

7 / 8 months into 2024 and already these major events have happened:

1. The Bitcoin Halving (reducing supply from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC)

2. The Bitcoin ETF approval in the USA (by the SEC)

3. Sam Bankman-Fried imprisonment (FTX)

4. Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto (UK judge)

5. Changpeng Zhao (CZ) from Binance sentenced to 4 months in prison (USA)

6. Roger Ver (Bitcoin Jesus) charged with mail fraud and tax evasion, arrested in Spain

7. Ethereum ETF approval in the USA (by the SEC)

8. Mt. Gox begins paying creditors after a decade 

9. Donald Trump speaks at Bitcoin Conference 2024 Nashville announces Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Ready for the next 4 / 5 months of 2024?...

Could this break the log/log power law for Bitcoin?

The log/log power law governing Bitcoin appears robust. However, could there be a plausible and logical scenario in which this power law is disrupted or abruptly halted? 

Drawing parallels with historical events, such as Executive Order 6102 under the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration, wherein all gold bullion and coins were seized, one might speculate on the potential for a similar intervention by the US Government or Federal Reserve in the realm of Bitcoin. It wouldn't be unfathomable for them to accumulate over 51%—equivalent to 11 million—of all Bitcoins, as well as a majority share in Bitcoin mining capacity. In my estimation, such a scenario is not improbable. 

For instance, if financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity were compelled to relinquish their Bitcoin holdings and associated assets, or if companies like Riot and Marathon were coerced into nationalizing their Bitcoin mining operations, this could significantly alter the landscape of Bitcoin ownership and control.

Here are some more resources:

1. https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
2. https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111
3. https://twitter.com/hcburger1
4. https://twitter.com/apsk32
5. https://twitter.com/dotkrueger

BlackRock has big influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but who owns BlackRock?

BlackRock has big influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem. For example with the development of the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and investments within the Bitcoin Mining Industry (such as Marathon and Riot) but who owns large chunks of BlackRock?

• The Vanguard Group, Inc. = 8.23%
• BlackRock Fund Advisors = 4.42%
• SSgA Funds Management, Inc. = 3.93%
• Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. (Investment Management) = 3.42%
• Capital Research & Management Co. (Global Investors) =2.63%
• Capital Research & Management Co. (World Investors) = 2.36%
• Managed Account Advisors LLC = 2.16%
• Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. = 2.13%
• Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (Investment Management) = 1.90%
• Geode Capital Management LLC = 1.78%

(Source: The Financial Times 12 April 2024 

[https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=BLK:NYQ]

BlackRock, Vanguard, et al own a large percentage of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA), Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT) and Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)

As a snapshot, it is interesting and enlightening to see some of the large percentage of owners within the Bitcoin ecosystem:

• Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA): The Vanguard Group owns 8.55% and BlackRock 5.73%
• Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT): 10.21% is owned by The Vanguard Group and 6.74% by BlackRock
• Coinbase Global Inc (COIN): 7.19% is owned by The Vanguard Group, 4.4% by ARK Investment Management, and 3.38% by BlackRock

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) 

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) 

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT)

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT)

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) 

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) 

(Source: The Financial Times, 10 April 2024)

Year 2009 to 2050 - find any date and price - Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor

Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor

• Find any date and see the Mid, Low or High price in US Dollars from the year 2009 to 2050 (table format).
• This is Inspired by BTC POWER LAW (@Giovann35084111) and Harold Burger (@hcburger1)
• Click here or the full URL is:

https://www.bbcdsatoshi.com/gallery/Live%20Bitcoin%20Price%20Log%20Log%20Power%20Law%20Data%20BBCDSatoshi.html

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

https://vimeo.com/840192125

Bitcoin: Asset Allocation with Crypto Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness (BlackRock)

Bitcoin: Asset Allocation with Crypto Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness (BlackRock)

Bitcoin (BTC) returns exhibit pronounced positive skewness with a third central moment of approximately 150% per year. They are well characterized by a mixture of Normals distribution with one “normal” regime and a small probability of a “bliss” regime where the price appreciation is more than 100 times at the annual horizon. The large right-tail skew induces investors with preferences for positive skewness to add significant BTC holdings to equity-bond portfolios. Even when BTC is forecast to lose half of its value in the normal regime, investors with power utility optimally add 3% allocations to BTC when the probability of the bliss regime is around 1%. Cumulative Prospect Theory investors are even more sensitive to positive skewness and hold BTC allocations of around 3% when the probability of the bliss regime is 0.0006 and the mean of BTC in the normal regime corresponds to a loss of 90%.

Source:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4042239

BlackRock filing with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923017574/bit20230608_s1.htm

On each Business Day, as soon as practicable after 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time (“ET”), the Trust Administrator evaluates the bitcoin held by the Trust as reflected by the CF Benchmarks Index and determines the net asset value of the Trust and the NAV. For purposes of making these calculations, a Business Day means any day other than a day when NASDAQ is closed for regular trading. The CF Benchmarks Index employed by the Trust is calculated on each Business Day by aggregating the notional value of bitcoin trading activity across major bitcoin spot exchanges. 

The CF Benchmarks Index is designed based on the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks and is a Registered Benchmark under the UK Benchmark Regulations (“BMR”). The administrator of the CF Benchmarks Index is CF Benchmarks Ltd. (the “Index Administrator”) a UK-incorporated company, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) of the UK as a Benchmark Administrator, under UK BMR. The CF Benchmarks Index serves as a once-a-day benchmark rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin (USD/BTC), calculated as of 4:00 p.m. ET. The CF Benchmarks Index aggregates the trade flow of several bitcoin exchanges, during an observation window between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. ET into the U.S. dollar price of one bitcoin at 4:00 p.m. ET. Specifically, the CF Benchmarks Index is calculated based on the “Relevant Transactions” (as defined in “Business of the Trust—Valuation of Bitcoin; the CF Benchmarks Index”) of all of its constituent bitcoin exchanges, which are currently Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit, Kraken, Gemini, and LMAX Digital (the “Constituent Platforms”), and which may change from time to time.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923017574/bit20230608_s1.htm

Will the 2024 Bitcoin Halving be a 'disappointment'?

I wouldn't be surprised if the 2024 Bitcoin halving becomes a massive 'disappointment' for those people with unrealistic high expectations.

Bitcoins will then flow towards large institutional investors who have lower time preferences. This will be from individual/retail investors and traders who will either fully or partially capitulate, by selling their Bitcoins on the open market. Fidelity, BlackRock, et al will scoop up the fire sale Bitcoins and add to their ever growing inventory.

The Bitcoin halving in 2028 and 2032 will be the halvings to watch. FOMO and FOLO (Fear Of Losing Out) will again be the watch words.

Remember, Bitcoin tends to do the opposite of what you expect.

I guess there is a 50% chance I'm either right or wrong...

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/