Thursday, June 12, 2025

Too Big to HODL? The Hidden Risks of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet. Is MicroStrategy Bitcoin’s Next FTX?

The original tweet is this...

“Can’t put my finger on it, but I’ve got a feeling Michael Saylor’s and MicroStrategy are introducing a level of risk for the Bitcoin ecosystem in a similar way that Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX did... Hope I’m wrong.”

I then asked ChatGPT to create a blog post based on the above tweet...

At first glance, comparing MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor to Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX may sound alarmist, even conspiratorial. Saylor has been one of the most vocal and consistent proponents of Bitcoin since MicroStrategy began its aggressive BTC buying spree in August 2020. He has made regular public appearances championing Bitcoin as “digital energy” and a “technological imperative.” Unlike the tangled mess of fraud and mismanagement uncovered at FTX, MicroStrategy’s operations appear clean, and its holdings are transparent.

Yet, the concern doesn’t stem from fraud, at least not yet. It stems from something far subtler and more dangerous: concentration risk, leverage, and the potential for unintended contagion. As the Bitcoin ecosystem grows, it's important to recognise that new systemic risks don’t always emerge from malevolence. Sometimes, they grow from overconfidence, hero worship, and too much leverage in the hands of too few.

Let’s break it down.

MicroStrategy: A Corporate Bitcoin Whale

MicroStrategy, a publicly traded business intelligence company, started accumulating Bitcoin in August 2020 under the leadership of Michael Saylor. By June 2025, the company will have amassed over 226,331 BTC worth more than $15 billion at current prices.

To put that in perspective:

  • MicroStrategy holds more Bitcoin than any ETF, any single publicly listed company, and possibly any private entity aside from some early miners or Satoshi Nakamoto himself.

  • Its holdings represent over 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, and a significantly higher share of the circulating supply available on exchanges.

These figures alone introduce a form of single-entity exposure that no one anticipated during Bitcoin’s early days. Bitcoin was supposed to be decentralised, censorship-resistant, and robust against any single point of failure. But when one entity controls such a significant percentage of the asset and does so in a leveraged, debt-financed way, it’s worth asking: what happens if they fail?

Leverage: The Ghost of FTX

MicroStrategy has used a mix of convertible bonds, secured loans, and stock sales to finance its Bitcoin purchases. Notably:

  • In 2021, MicroStrategy raised $1.05 billion through convertible notes at a 0% interest rate to buy Bitcoin. (SEC filing)

  • In 2022, they took out a $205 million loan from Silvergate Bank (yes, that Silvergate) using Bitcoin as collateral.

  • In 2024, they began selling shares to raise capital to buy more Bitcoin, effectively tying shareholder equity to Bitcoin price performance.

The concern here isn’t that MicroStrategy will rug pull its Bitcoin or engage in fraud. It’s that it has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin that could trigger volatility if things go south.

Sound familiar? This is similar to what FTX did, albeit with far less transparency and outright fraud. FTX, through Alameda Research, became a concentrated node of risk. When FTX collapsed, it sent cascading ripples through the entire crypto market, affecting retail investors, institutional funds, and even regulated firms like BlockFi and Genesis.

Now imagine MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate a substantial portion of its Bitcoin to meet margin calls or debt obligations. That sale could:

  • Send shockwaves through the market.

  • Damage investor confidence.

  • Create the perception (even if unfair) that Bitcoin itself is risky or unstable.

The parallels may be uncomfortable, but they’re real.

Hero Worship and the Saylor Doctrine

One of the key cultural problems that enabled the FTX debacle was the cult of personality around Sam Bankman-Fried. He was seen as a genius, a philanthropist, a regulator-whisperer who could do no wrong, until it all came crashing down.

Michael Saylor has earned his followers differently, through consistent messaging and big bets. But the end result is similar: a significant segment of the crypto community now sees him as a prophet rather than a CEO. That creates blind spots.

MicroStrategy is not a decentralised protocol. It is a company with obligations to shareholders, debt holders, and regulators. It can fail. And if it fails, it will not be just Saylor that pays the price, Bitcoin’s reputation and price could also suffer, even if only temporarily.

Liquidity and Exit Risk

Unlike most Bitcoin hodlers, MicroStrategy has the legal ability to sell BTC at any time to meet financial obligations. If bondholders or creditors begin to doubt MicroStrategy’s solvency, or if equity markets turn hostile, the firm may be forced to sell Bitcoin. Even a modest sale by MicroStrategy could have outsized effects, not just on price but on market psychology.

Again, the comparison to FTX is instructive. Alameda and FTX were tied together in a feedback loop of confidence and collateral. When one faltered, the other collapsed. MicroStrategy isn’t doing anything nefarious, but its fate is increasingly tied to Bitcoin’s price and Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by MicroStrategy’s behaviour. That’s a dangerous loop.

Regulatory Blowback

Let’s not forget the regulatory angle. The SEC and other global regulators have recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, ostensibly “de-risking” access to BTC for institutional investors. But if MicroStrategy an SEC-regulated public company starts experiencing financial strain due to its Bitcoin exposure, it could draw regulatory scrutiny on BTC as an asset class.

Consider what happened post-FTX: Congress rushed in with multiple bills, the SEC launched lawsuits, and regulatory uncertainty increased. A high-profile Bitcoin-centred implosion could reintroduce political risk into an ecosystem that’s just beginning to gain mainstream traction.

So, Is MicroStrategy the Next FTX?

No. But also... maybe.

To be clear: MicroStrategy has not committed fraud. It has disclosed its holdings transparently. Its accounting, while unusual, is open to public scrutiny. And Michael Saylor has never made promises he hasn’t backed with action.

But what makes systemic risk systemic is interdependence, confidence, and leverage not just bad intentions.

In the 2008 financial crisis, Lehman Brothers didn’t collapse because it was uniquely corrupt. It collapsed because it was too leveraged, too opaque, and too deeply embedded into the financial system. Its fall triggered panic, because the system had come to rely on its stability. The same was true with FTX.

Bitcoin’s entire value proposition rests on trustless, decentralised finance. But we must recognise when centralised actors become so large, so influential, and so intertwined with the asset’s perception that their collapse could hurt the broader ecosystem.

Conclusion: Hope I’m Wrong

This post isn’t a hit piece. It’s a warning not of Saylor’s malice, but of Bitcoin’s creeping fragility as it becomes increasingly financialised.

Bitcoin survived Mt. Gox. It survived China’s mining ban. It survived the collapse of FTX. But each crisis reshaped the ecosystem.

If MicroStrategy’s strategy fails or even stumbles it may not bring Bitcoin down with it. But it could inflict temporary damage to price, investor sentiment, and global regulatory posture.

Michael Saylor may not be Sam Bankman-Fried. But we shouldn’t need another FTX to remind us that hero worship, leverage, and centralisation are antithetical to the very ethos Bitcoin was built on.

Let’s just hope we’re wrong.

Sources and Further Reading:













Saturday, May 31, 2025

Nigel Farage + Bitcoin = The Way

Nigel Farage mentioned in the book "Buy Bitcoin, You'll Thank Yourself In The Future: A book about Bitcoin"

Nigel Farage mentioned in the book "Buy Bitcoin, You'll Thank Yourself In The Future: A book about Bitcoin"
Nigel Farage + Bitcoin = The Way

Download the book now:

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

BIG NEWS: BlackRock Launches Bitcoin ETP in Europe Following USA Success

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETP will be listed on:

a) Euronext Paris and Xetra under the "IB1T" ticker

b) On Euronext Amsterdam under "BTCN" today

For obvious reasons, this is BIG news!

Friday, March 14, 2025

Bitcoin Futures and Options: How can options and or futures for Bitcoin be used to drive down the price of Bitcoin, with the intention of buying Bitcoin at a lower price knowing Bitcoin in the future will be much higher in value?

Using Bitcoin options and futures to drive down the price and accumulate BTC at lower levels is a strategy often employed by large institutional players, hedge funds, and whales. Here’s how this could be done:

[Bogdanoff driving prices down for the future :-)]

1. Using Bitcoin Futures to Push the Price Down

Bitcoin futures allow traders to take leveraged short positions, meaning they can profit from a price drop. Here’s how this can be used to suppress BTC price:

Step-by-Step Manipulative Strategy Using Futures:

  1. Open Large Short Positions:

    • A trader (or coordinated group) opens a massive short position on Bitcoin using Bitcoin futures contracts on exchanges like CME, Binance, or Deribit.
    • This creates an impression of bearish sentiment and increases selling pressure.
  2. Sell Spot Bitcoin Aggressively:

    • At the same time, the trader sells a large amount of Bitcoin in the spot market, causing a short-term price drop.
    • Since BTC markets are highly liquid but still relatively small compared to traditional markets, a large sell order can trigger cascading liquidations.
  3. Trigger Liquidations (Short Cascade Attack):

    • Many traders use leveraged long positions. If the price drops suddenly, it triggers margin calls and liquidations, causing the price to drop further.
    • This reinforces the downward momentum and may lead to panic selling.
  4. Use Media & FUD to Amplify Fear:

    • Institutions or whales may spread negative news (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to further drive panic selling.
    • News about regulations, exchange hacks, or bans can trigger emotional reactions, increasing selling pressure.
  5. Close the Short Position at a Profit & Accumulate Spot Bitcoin Cheaply:

    • Once the price has dropped significantly, the trader closes the short positions at a profit.
    • They then start accumulating BTC at lower prices in the spot market before the next bullish cycle.


2. Using Bitcoin Options to Suppress Price

Bitcoin options provide a way to influence market sentiment and cause price suppression. Here’s how:

Step-by-Step Strategy Using Options:

  1. Buy Large Amounts of Put Options:

    • The trader buys a significant amount of put options (which profit when Bitcoin falls).
    • Large put buying can signal to the market that a big player is betting on a price drop, causing others to sell.
  2. Short Sell in Spot & Futures Market:

    • Simultaneously, they sell BTC in the spot market and open short futures positions to force a decline.
    • If the price drops, put options increase in value, generating profits.
  3. Gamma Squeeze & Options Market Impact:

    • Market makers who sold the put options need to hedge their risk by shorting Bitcoin, increasing selling pressure.
    • If Bitcoin price nears a critical option strike level, market makers may further sell BTC to remain hedged, reinforcing the decline.
  4. Close Put Options & Buy BTC at Lower Prices:

    • Once Bitcoin reaches the target lower level, the trader sells their put options for profit.
    • Then, they start accumulating Bitcoin at a discount before the price recovers.


Real-World Example:

  1. CME Bitcoin Futures Expirations:
    • Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to decline before CME Bitcoin futures contract expirations. This is often attributed to large players manipulating the market to profit from shorts before expiration.
  2. May 2021 & November 2022 Crashes:
    • Institutions took advantage of negative sentiment (China mining bans, FTX collapse, interest rate hikes) to short BTC aggressively.
    • Once liquidations happened, they bought back BTC at lower prices before the next rally.


Conclusion:

By strategically using futures and options, sophisticated traders can temporarily suppress Bitcoin’s price, profit from the downturn, and then buy BTC at lower levels. This requires large capital, leverage, and market influence, but similar tactics have been observed repeatedly in Bitcoin’s history.


***************

Source: ChatGPT

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Bitcoin Power Law Code for TradingView (Pine Editor Pinescript) by @apsk32

Step 1: Copy/paste this code into the Pine Editor window and click save.

//
@version
=6 indicator("Power Law", overlay=true) // Days X-Axis Value start = time == timestamp(2010, 7, 18, 0, 0) days = request.security('INDEX:BTCUSD', 'D', ta.barssince(start)) offset = 561 // days between 2009/1/3 and "start" d = days + offset a = input(-17.668, 'Power Law Intercept',group = "Power Law Settings") b = input(5.926, 'Power Law Slope',group = "Power Law Settings") price_power_law_0 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d)) price_power_law_1 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+1*365)) price_power_law_2 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+2*365)) price_power_law_3 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+3*365)) price_power_law_4 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+4*365)) price_power_law_5 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+5*365)) p0 = plot(price_power_law_0, color=#ffffffaa, title='Power Law',linewidth = 1) p1 = plot(price_power_law_1, title='Power Law 1',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p2 = plot(price_power_law_2, title='Power Law 2',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p3 = plot(price_power_law_3, title='Power Law 3',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p4 = plot(price_power_law_4, title='Power Law 4',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p5 = plot(price_power_law_5, title='Power Law 5',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)


Step 2: Go to "Indicators" "Personal" and select the "Power Law" script. The years ahead metric should now be displayed.

************************************************

Credit: 





Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Will the USA Establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026? Analysing the Prospects

The idea of governments incorporating cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into their fiscal strategies is becoming less far-fetched. However, the notion that the United States might announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) by 2026 remains highly speculative and is mired in economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties. Here’s a deeper dive into the feasibility of such a development.

Understanding the Concept of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would mean that the federal government, much like with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, holds a stockpile of Bitcoin as part of its national treasury assets. This could serve multiple purposes: hedging against financial crises, bolstering the dollar's position by diversifying reserves, or even as a strategic asset in trade negotiations. But the path to such an initiative is fraught with hurdles.

Economic and Regulatory Challenges

The volatile nature of Bitcoin poses a significant risk for any government considering its reserve status. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are notorious, and its valuation can swing wildly based on market sentiment, regulatory news, and technological developments. For a conservative entity like a national government, these characteristics make Bitcoin a risky reserve asset.

Moreover, regulatory frameworks in the USA are still catching up with the fast-paced evolution of cryptocurrencies. Issues surrounding tax implications, anti-money laundering (AML) standards, and consumer protection are still being debated. Establishing a reserve would require robust legal frameworks that are currently lacking.

Political Landscape

The political environment regarding cryptocurrencies in the USA is complex and varied. While some lawmakers advocate for progressive cryptocurrency regulations and promote innovation in blockchain technologies, others are staunchly opposed, citing financial risks and potential misuse for illicit activities. This division makes it difficult to achieve the consensus needed to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.

Public Perception and Institutional Readiness

Public trust in Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency technologies is mixed. While there is significant interest and investment from the private sector, the general population remains skeptical about the stability and utility of cryptocurrencies. Without broad public support, a move as bold as establishing a Bitcoin reserve could be politically unviable.

Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department would also need to significantly adapt their operations to manage a Bitcoin reserve. This includes developing new tools for risk assessment, market intervention, and asset management specific to cryptocurrencies.

Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond

Predicting a strategic move such as establishing a Bitcoin reserve by 2026 is challenging. It would require a dramatic shift in regulatory posture, economic strategy, and political will, all within a relatively short timeframe. Given the current landscape, it appears unlikely that the United States will announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026. However, as with all things crypto, the unexpected can always happen.

As stakeholders in the financial world continue to watch the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in global economics, the discussion about its potential integration into national reserves remains a topic of hot debate and speculation. Whether or not the USA takes a monumental step towards such an integration by 2026 remains to be seen, but what is certain is that the conversation isn’t going away anytime soon.

Monday, January 20, 2025

How Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto Helped Donald Trump Become the 47th President

On January 20th, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. His return to the Oval Office has sparked discussions worldwide, but one perspective stands out: the pivotal role Bitcoin and cryptocurrency played in enabling his second presidency. Without Satoshi Nakamoto's revolutionary invention, this political outcome, and its broader implications for the world, might never have come to pass.

The Power of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency, was introduced in 2009 by the pseudonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto. Initially dismissed by many as an experimental oddity, Bitcoin became the foundation for a new global financial system. It empowered individuals to transact and store value without relying on traditional banks or governments, ushering in a new era of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Over the years, Bitcoin’s influence has expanded beyond finance. It became a symbol of freedom from central authority, appealing to millions who sought transparency, privacy, and self-sovereignty. By the 2020s, its influence permeated politics, as the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency became a rallying cry for many.

Bitcoin’s Role in Trump’s 2024 Campaign

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency owes much to the grassroots support powered by cryptocurrency. Campaign financing in the modern era increasingly relies on small, direct contributions from individuals. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin allowed Trump's supporters to contribute to his campaign without traditional banking barriers, transcending geographical boundaries and political restrictions.

Moreover, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin helped counteract censorship and traditional financial roadblocks. During his 2024 campaign, there were significant efforts to deplatform and financially stifle his movement. Cryptocurrency provided an alternative, unshackled medium for fundraising and communication, enabling a resilient and resourceful campaign infrastructure.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Unlikely Role in Global Politics

It’s fascinating to consider the chain of events set in motion by Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention. Without Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency revolution might never have occurred. Without the decentralization and financial freedom Bitcoin enabled, Trump's political movement may have been unable to thrive in the face of institutional challenges.

Bitcoin not only financed the campaign but symbolized a deeper message: a rejection of centralized control. Trump's campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” resonated with the crypto community’s ethos of empowering individuals over institutions. For many, Bitcoin became a metaphor for self-determination, a fitting parallel to Trump's own brand of populist politics.

Bitcoin, Trump, and the World Stage

Donald Trump's second presidency, made possible in part by Bitcoin, presents a unique opportunity for cryptocurrency on the global stage. Trump has publicly expressed mixed views on Bitcoin in the past, but his second term could see a dramatic policy shift. Bitcoin and blockchain technology might now find a champion in the White House, shaping U.S. economic and technological policy for decades to come.

The geopolitical implications are enormous. A pro-Bitcoin administration could position the U.S. as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption and innovation, further decentralizing power and reshaping the global financial order. Trump’s presidency, enabled by Bitcoin, may also accelerate discussions about digital currencies' role in fostering individual freedoms and countering authoritarian control worldwide.

The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin Saved the World

The story doesn’t end with Trump. Bitcoin’s rise signifies something much larger: the dawn of a decentralized world. By removing the need for intermediaries, Bitcoin has empowered billions, fostering financial inclusion and innovation.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation didn’t just change finance, it reshaped society’s understanding of power, freedom, and trust. Whether they intended it or not, Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention has influenced everything from technology to politics, culminating in Donald Trump’s second presidency.

Conclusion

Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention of Bitcoin set off a chain reaction that, years later, helped Donald Trump become the 47th President of the United States. This event underscores the profound and unexpected ways Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are reshaping our world.

In the years to come, Trump’s presidency and its relationship with Bitcoin may redefine the global order. And while history will judge Trump’s leadership, one thing is clear: Satoshi Nakamoto’s legacy extends far beyond technology, it is now intertwined with the fate of nations.

Bitcoin saved the world. Satoshi Nakamoto saved the world. And now, Donald Trump has a chance to do the same.

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Happy New Year for 2025 and beyond

As we bid farewell to 2024 and welcome the dawn of 2025, I wish everyone health, happiness, and success in the year ahead. 

Stay positive, embrace gratitude, and cherish all that you have. 

How will these factors unfold in 2025 and beyond? 

  • The return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
  • Shifting geopolitics involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, North Korea, Yemen, the Houthis, and Israel, each could shape the global landscape.
  • Economic concerns like inflation, interest rates, and the rise of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve also loom large. 
  • What will become of Bitcoin’s price and the Bitcoin Power Law? 
  • How will artificial intelligence continue to redefine our world? 

The future holds many questions, and the answers will shape the path ahead.

Happy New Year,

BBCD SATOSHI

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Any date from 2009 to 2051 Bitcoin Price (Log/Log) Power Law Growth Corridor

Use this table to find the price of Bitcoin on any given date up to the year 2051

This table shows the low, medium or high price based on the Bitcoin Power Law (Log/Log) Power Law Growth Corridor.

https://bbcdsatoshi.blogspot.com/p/bitcoin-power-law-any-dateprice.html

Bitcoin Price (Log/Log) Power Law Support Levels


4 Year table and graph of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048)
Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
(Inspired by @Giovann35084111 and @hcburger1)
YearLogLow ($)Mid ($)High ($)
20121$2$3$84
20162$267$415$5,917
20203$3,621$5,637$57,442
20244$21,689$33,762$273,292
20285$84,861$132,103$897,271
20326$255,603$397,897$2,345,362
20367$644,835$1,003,814$5,253,133
20408$1,431,231$2,227,997$10,523,428
20449$2,883,306$4,488,441$19,374,316
204810$5,384,182$8,381,554$33,387,243


5 Year table and graph of the Bitcoin Price (2010 - 2050)
Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
(Inspired by @Giovann35084111 and @hcburger1)
YearLogLow ($)Mid ($)High ($)
20101$0$0$0.34
20152$110$171$2,726.95
20203$3,621$5,637$57,441.76
20254$31,500$49,036$378,325.53
20305$151,258$235,463$1,484,770.10
20356$518,707$807,470$4,345,563.89
20407$1,431,231$2,227,997$10,523,428.19
20458$3,393,452$5,282,586$22,329,561.35
20509$7,187,053$11,188,084$42,942,137.09

Yearly support line (lowest price)
Table of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048)
Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
Inspired by the work of:
@Giovann35084111 @hcburger1 @dotkrueger
@apsk32 @math_sci_tech @TheRealPlanC
YearLogLow/Support ($)
20121$2.01
20162$266.73
20203$3,621.41
20244$21,688.51
20285$84,860.75
20326$255,602.64
20367$644,834.51
20408$1,431,230.91
20449$2,883,305.70
204810$5,384,181.98


10 Year support line (lowest price)
Table of the Bitcoin Price for 10 years (2024 - 2033)
Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
Inspired by the work of:
@Giovann35084111 @hcburger1 @dotkrueger
@apsk32 @math_sci_tech @TheRealPlanC
YearLogLow/Support ($)
20241$21,689
20252$31,500
20263$44,682
20274$62,128
20285$84,861
20296$114,163
20307$151,258
20318$197,802
20329$255,603
203310$326,927


Too Big to HODL? The Hidden Risks of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet. Is MicroStrategy Bitcoin’s Next FTX?

The original tweet is this... “Can’t put my finger on it, but I’ve got a feeling Michael Saylor’s and MicroStrategy are introducing a level ...