4 months into 2024 (Halving, Bitcoin ETF, FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, and Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto)

We are only 4 months into 2024 and already these major events have happened:

1. The Bitcoin Halving (reducing supply from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC)

2. The Bitcoin ETF approval in the USA (by the SEC)

3. Sam Bankman-Fried imprisonment (FTX)

4. Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto (UK judge)

Ready for the next 8 months of 2024?...

BlackRock has big influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but who owns BlackRock?

BlackRock has big influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem. For example with the development of the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and investments within the Bitcoin Mining Industry (such as Marathon and Riot) but who owns large chunks of BlackRock?

• The Vanguard Group, Inc. = 8.23%
• BlackRock Fund Advisors = 4.42%
• SSgA Funds Management, Inc. = 3.93%
• Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. (Investment Management) = 3.42%
• Capital Research & Management Co. (Global Investors) =2.63%
• Capital Research & Management Co. (World Investors) = 2.36%
• Managed Account Advisors LLC = 2.16%
• Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. = 2.13%
• Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (Investment Management) = 1.90%
• Geode Capital Management LLC = 1.78%

(Source: The Financial Times 12 April 2024 

[https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=BLK:NYQ]

BlackRock, Vanguard, et al own a large percentage of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA), Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT) and Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)

As a snapshot, it is interesting and enlightening to see some of the large percentage of owners within the Bitcoin ecosystem:

• Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA): The Vanguard Group owns 8.55% and BlackRock 5.73%
• Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT): 10.21% is owned by The Vanguard Group and 6.74% by BlackRock
• Coinbase Global Inc (COIN): 7.19% is owned by The Vanguard Group, 4.4% by ARK Investment Management, and 3.38% by BlackRock

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) 

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) 

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT)

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT)

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) 

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) 

(Source: The Financial Times, 10 April 2024)

Lowest prices projected for Bitcoin on the 1st of January each year (Bitcoin Power Law Model)

Using the Bitcoin Power Law Model, these are the LOWEST (the floor) prices projected for Bitcoin on the 1st of January each year. 

These figures have been rounded down and are approximate:

2024 = $24,000

2025 = $35,000

2026 = $50,000

2027 = $70,000

2028 = $96,000

2029 = $130,000

2030 = $174,000

2031 = $228,000

2032 = $295,000

2033 = $375,000

2034 = $480,000

2035 = $600,000

2036 = $750,000

2037 = $930,000

2038 = $1,140,000

2039 = $1,390,000

2040 = $1,600,000

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory

Everyone interested in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and Satoshi Nakamoto must watch this video by https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111 (Giovanni Santostasi) about The Bitcoin Power Law Theory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYfLbCZJWqY

Year 2009 to 2050 - find any date and price - Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor

Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor

• Find any date and see the Mid, Low or High price in US Dollars from the year 2009 to 2050 (table format).
• This is Inspired by BTC POWER LAW (@Giovann35084111) and Harold Burger (@hcburger1)
• Click here or the full URL is:

https://www.bbcdsatoshi.com/gallery/Live%20Bitcoin%20Price%20Log%20Log%20Power%20Law%20Data%20BBCDSatoshi.html

Bitcoin is not crypto, and crypto is not Bitcoin

Bitcoin and crypto are not the same thing. This is an important point. Yes, Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but do not be misguided and lump Bitcoin with all other cryptocurrencies, (known as crypto or alt coins). Once this is understood, everything becomes much clearer about Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not crypto

2024 is here, strap yourself in... The Fourth Turning

2024 will be a massive year for bitcoin, economics, elections, geopolitics and war. 

I predict calm will return in 2028

The period around 2024 is predicted to be a time of significant global change and upheaval, potentially marking the midst of the Crisis phase in their historical cycle model. This phase is characterized by societal upheaval and the reconstruction of social and political structures.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Impact: Within this framework, the rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is seen as a reflection of a broader societal shift away from traditional financial systems. The integration of blockchain technology in various sectors, reaching a pivotal stage by 2024, aligns with the theme of the Crisis phase, which involves overthrowing the old order and experimenting with new economic structures. The growth and volatility in the cryptocurrency sector could be indicative of significant economic shifts.

Global Economic Trends: The economic turbulence predicted for 2024 is in line with the Fourth Turning's themes of crisis and transformation. This period might see a deeper restructuring of global economic systems and ideologies, leading to innovative economic models and policies. This could include potential recovery from current economic slowdowns, adjustments to inflation rates, and the impacts of emerging technologies and policies, as countries adapt to post-pandemic realities and new trade dynamics.

Elections and Political Changes: Political shifts anticipated in 2024, including major elections in influential countries, can be viewed through the lens of the Fourth Turning as a redefinition of societal values and governance structures. These shifts could lead to significant changes in global diplomacy, trade policies, and internal governance, marking the rise of new leaders and the fall of old ones.

Geopolitical Dynamics: Geopolitical tensions and conflicts, often seen as culminations of unresolved issues from previous turnings, are expected to reach a climax in 2024. This could involve issues like climate change policies, territorial disputes, or shifts in alliances, contributing to the geopolitical landscape and potentially leading to significant global realignments.

War and Conflict Resolution: The Crisis phase often involves major conflicts that can redefine nations and global alliances. Escalated conflicts, whether through direct wars, cyber warfare, economic sanctions, or proxy battles, could heavily influence global peace and security, possibly leading to a new world order and setting the stage for the next High phase.

Return to Calm in 2028: The prediction of a return to calm by 2028 suggests an end to the Crisis phase and the beginning of a new High. This period is marked by a feeling of collective recovery and the establishment of a new social, political, and economic order, built on the foundations laid during the turbulent period of the Crisis phase. This could be due to diplomatic efforts, technological advancements, or a natural resolution of economic and political cycles.

In summary, the Fourth Turning theory provides a framework for understanding the potential significant changes and upheavals expected around 2024 in various domains such as economics, politics, technology, and global relations, followed by a period of stabilization and recovery leading into 2028.

The Bitcoin Power Law Growth Corridor (by Harold Burger)... excellent video explanation

The Bitcoin Power Law Growth Corridor (by Harold Burger)... excellent video explanation by Chad Thackray

https://youtu.be/wfi-bst4hmA?si=jolV5-xhxa7JhNrr

Text from YouTube video:

"We implement a model popularised by Harold Burger, which uses a log-log chart of bitcoin and then applies linear regression to establish a long term corridor of price action, which has worked well over the past 10 years. It's a useful indicator to zoom out and see the big picture, without getting worked up over day to day price action."

See also:

https://medium.com/quantodian-publications/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

Bitcoin Stock To Flow (S2F) Trading Rule, by PlanB

The PlanB Bitcoin Stock To Flow (S2F) Trading Rule is worth looking into...

• Approximately 6 months before the halving purchase Bitcoin
• And then 18 months after the halving sell the Bitcoin

Here is his video breaking down his theory/trading rule:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJXl_bCQMKc

Bitcoin as an investment with research from major institutions

This post is focused on Bitcoin as an investment with research from major institutions:

• ARK
• Fidelity
• Franklin Templeton

ARK

• https://ark-invest.com/the-bitcoin-monthly/

Fidelity Digital Assets

• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoin-first
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/default/files/documents/bitcoin-first.pdf
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoin-supply-demand
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/default/files/documents/valuing-bitcoin-report.pdf
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/understanding-bitcoin-halving
• https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/topics/digital-assets-and-traditional-investing

Franklin Templeton

• https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/podcasts/cryptocurrency-blockchain-and-digital-assets-love-em-hate-em-but-dont-ignore-em

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

https://vimeo.com/840192125

Bitcoin: Asset Allocation with Crypto Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness (BlackRock)

Bitcoin: Asset Allocation with Crypto Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness (BlackRock)

Bitcoin (BTC) returns exhibit pronounced positive skewness with a third central moment of approximately 150% per year. They are well characterized by a mixture of Normals distribution with one “normal” regime and a small probability of a “bliss” regime where the price appreciation is more than 100 times at the annual horizon. The large right-tail skew induces investors with preferences for positive skewness to add significant BTC holdings to equity-bond portfolios. Even when BTC is forecast to lose half of its value in the normal regime, investors with power utility optimally add 3% allocations to BTC when the probability of the bliss regime is around 1%. Cumulative Prospect Theory investors are even more sensitive to positive skewness and hold BTC allocations of around 3% when the probability of the bliss regime is 0.0006 and the mean of BTC in the normal regime corresponds to a loss of 90%.

Source:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4042239

Everything You Want To Know About Bitcoin (But Are Afraid To Ask). Questions and Answers About Bitcoin

Everything You Want To Know About Bitcoin (But Are Afraid To Ask). Questions and Answers About Bitcoin

Now available in these formats:

 

• Digital download (Amazon Kindle eBook)

• Paperback (black and white printed ISBN-13: 9798852862839)
• Hardcover (colour printed ISBN-13: 9798852864031)
• Audiobook (coming soon)
• Limited edition copies (coming soon)
• Special Limited edition signed copies (coming soon)

 

Available to purchase from:

• Amazon
• Apple
• Barnes & Noble
• Books2Read
• Kobo

 

Description:

Discover the intriguing world of Bitcoin, with "Everything You Want To Know About Bitcoin (But Are Afraid To Ask). Questions and Answers About Bitcoin". As we traverse an era of economic unpredictability, there's a financial game-changer breaking boundaries - Bitcoin. Despite its transformative power, understanding its intricacies can often feel like decrypting an enigma due to the dispersed and scattered information available.

 

This comprehensive guide is your reliable navigator through the labyrinth of Bitcoin, perfect for eager novices and seasoned investors alike. It unravels the complex layers of cryptocurrency, takes you through the pivotal infrastructure of blockchain, unveils the mechanics of Bitcoin mining, and much more.

 

"Everything You Want To Know About Bitcoin (But Are Afraid To Ask). Questions and Answers About Bitcoin" rises above the fray to address over 100 of the most probing questions about Bitcoin, offering both digestible and in-depth responses that cater to beginners and advanced enthusiasts. Your quest for answers ends here, within the groundbreaking chapters of this book.

 

• What is the process of 'Halvening' and why is it significant?
• Could the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto be more than one person?
• What role could Bitcoin play in your investment portfolio?
• How does it intersect with global economics and regulations?
• What challenges could impede its future?

 

This enlightening guide promises to equip you with:

 

• A profound comprehension of Bitcoin's mechanics and the underlying blockchain technology.
• An objective perspective on Bitcoin's legal ramifications, potential rewards, and inherent risks.
• Proficiency in buying, selling, and securely storing Bitcoin.
• An insightful exploration into Bitcoin's influence on the global financial terrain and its prospects for future expansion.

 

Embark on your digital revolution today. Don't allow fear or confusion to cloud your understanding of Bitcoin.

Let "Everything You Want To Know About Bitcoin (But Are Afraid To Ask). Questions and Answers About Bitcoin" be your launchpad into the future of finance.

BlackRock filing with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923017574/bit20230608_s1.htm

On each Business Day, as soon as practicable after 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time (“ET”), the Trust Administrator evaluates the bitcoin held by the Trust as reflected by the CF Benchmarks Index and determines the net asset value of the Trust and the NAV. For purposes of making these calculations, a Business Day means any day other than a day when NASDAQ is closed for regular trading. The CF Benchmarks Index employed by the Trust is calculated on each Business Day by aggregating the notional value of bitcoin trading activity across major bitcoin spot exchanges. 

The CF Benchmarks Index is designed based on the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks and is a Registered Benchmark under the UK Benchmark Regulations (“BMR”). The administrator of the CF Benchmarks Index is CF Benchmarks Ltd. (the “Index Administrator”) a UK-incorporated company, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) of the UK as a Benchmark Administrator, under UK BMR. The CF Benchmarks Index serves as a once-a-day benchmark rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin (USD/BTC), calculated as of 4:00 p.m. ET. The CF Benchmarks Index aggregates the trade flow of several bitcoin exchanges, during an observation window between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. ET into the U.S. dollar price of one bitcoin at 4:00 p.m. ET. Specifically, the CF Benchmarks Index is calculated based on the “Relevant Transactions” (as defined in “Business of the Trust—Valuation of Bitcoin; the CF Benchmarks Index”) of all of its constituent bitcoin exchanges, which are currently Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit, Kraken, Gemini, and LMAX Digital (the “Constituent Platforms”), and which may change from time to time.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923017574/bit20230608_s1.htm

Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor (Inspired by Harold Burger) up to the year 2050

The Bitcoin Price Log/Log Power Law Growth Corridor (Inspired by Harold Burger).

Data presented in table format from 2009 - 2050. 

Find any date and see the Mid, Low or High price in US Dollars.

Notice how close the price of Bitcoin in US Dollars was in November 2022 to the "Low" within the log/log power law corridor of growth...

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/gallery/Live%20Bitcoin%20Price%20Log%20Log%20Power%20Law%20Data%20BBCDSatoshi.html

From the WBD Podcast... Michael Saylor's 10 Rules for Life

Michael Saylor's 10 Rules for Life:

1. Focus your energy  

2. Guard your time  

3. Train your mind  

4. Train your body  

5. Think for yourself  

6. Curate your friends  

7. Curate your environment  

8. Keep your promises  

9. Stay cheerful, be constructive 

10. Upgrade the world

Bonus...

1. Study history

2. Study applied statistics

3. Take advantage of new technology

• What Bitcoin Did: https://youtu.be/-w-aYVXcOk4 
• https://bbcdsatoshi.com/

Bitcoin price prediction 2023 - 2033 lowest price based on log log power law devised by Harold Burger

Forecasting Bitcoin's Minimum Value. This provides an estimate of the lowest potential value, expressed in US Dollars (USD), for a single unit of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the logarithmic power law model developed by Harold Burger. It's crucial to underscore that these figures represent the absolute minimum values, suggesting that actual prices could only be higher.

Please approach these predictions with an understanding of their inherent uncertainty.

2023: $16,000

2024: $24,000

2025: $35,000

2026: $50,000

2027: $70,000

2028: $95,000

2029: $125,000

2030: $165,000

2031: $225,000

2032: $285,000

2033: $375,000

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/

Bitcoin live price added to BBCDSatoshi website

The live price of Bitcoin in USD and GBP has been added to the BBCDSatoshi website. You can see the live price of Bitcoin by clicking here or https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Bitcoin-Price/

Please note: These prices are from the CoinMarketCap.

Occam's razor = Bitcoin (the simplest solution is almost always the best)

Occam's razor = Bitcoin

Occam's razor, also known as the principle of parsimony, is a fundamental philosophical and scientific principle that suggests that when there are multiple explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest explanation is usually the best one. This principle has significant implications when applied to the world of technology, specifically to the concept of Bitcoin and blockchain.

Bitcoin is a digital asset and payment system that is based on a decentralized and trustless blockchain system. It allows for the creation and transfer of value without the need for intermediaries such as banks or financial institutions. This system has been designed to be secure, transparent, and decentralized, providing a means of value transfer that is not subject to the control or manipulation of any single entity or organization.

Applying Occam's razor to Bitcoin, we can see that the simplest explanation for the creation and transfer of value without the need for intermediaries is through the use of a decentralized and trustless blockchain system, rather than complex and centralized financial structures. This principle suggests that the design and implementation of the Bitcoin system were driven by the need to create a simple and efficient means of value transfer that is free from the constraints and inefficiencies of traditional financial institutions.

Moreover, Occam's razor can also be used to analyze the security and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin system. The principle suggests that the simplest explanation for a secure and trustworthy system is one that is designed to be transparent and decentralized, rather than one that relies on complex and opaque security measures. The blockchain system underlying Bitcoin is built on a network of nodes that are distributed around the world, each holding a copy of the blockchain ledger. This decentralization makes it difficult for any single entity or organization to manipulate the system, ensuring the integrity and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin network.

Furthermore, the simplicity of the Bitcoin system makes it easier to understand and use, which has contributed to its widespread adoption and success. Occam's razor suggests that a simple and straightforward explanation is more likely to be understood and accepted than a complex and convoluted one. Bitcoin's design and implementation have been guided by this principle, resulting in a system that is easy to use and accessible to a wide range of users.

In conclusion, Occam's razor is a powerful principle that has significant implications when applied to the world of technology, specifically to the concept of Bitcoin and blockchain. The principle suggests that the simplest explanation for the creation and transfer of value without intermediaries is through the use of a decentralized and trustless blockchain system. This principle also suggests that the security and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin system are due to its transparent and decentralized design. Finally, the simplicity of the Bitcoin system has contributed to its widespread adoption and success.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/