This Bitcoin Cycle Is Different: The ETF and Trump Factor

The 2024-2025 Bitcoin cycle represents a fundamental departure from previous market cycles, driven by two unprecedented catalysts: the January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Donald Trump's return to the presidency with an explicitly pro-crypto agenda. These factors have transformed Bitcoin from a predominantly retail-driven, speculative asset into an institutionally-accessible investment vehicle backed by regulatory momentum at the highest levels of government.

Historical Context: Previous Bitcoin Cycles

To understand why this cycle differs, we must first examine the patterns of previous cycles:

2011-2013 Cycle: Bitcoin rose from $1 to $1,100, driven primarily by early adopters and libertarian idealists. The collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 exemplified the infrastructure immaturity.

2015-2017 Cycle: Bitcoin surged from $200 to nearly $20,000, fueled by ICO mania and retail FOMO. Institutional participation remained minimal, with most traditional finance viewing Bitcoin skeptically.

2018-2021 Cycle: Bitcoin recovered to reach $69,000 in November 2021. This cycle saw the first major institutional adopters (MicroStrategy, Tesla) and the emergence of institutional custody solutions. However, investment remained direct purchases, requiring companies to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets—a regulatory and accounting burden that limited widespread adoption.

Each previous cycle followed a similar pattern: halving event, retail enthusiasm, parabolic rise, 80%+ drawdown, and institutional skepticism. Regulatory hostility or ambiguity characterized the environment, with governments viewing Bitcoin as a threat rather than an opportunity.

The ETF Revolution: Democratizing Institutional Access

The Approval That Changed Everything

On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously, including offerings from BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust - IBIT), Fidelity (Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - FBTC), and Grayscale (converted from GBTC). This approval marked the end of a decade-long regulatory battle and represented the SEC's implicit endorsement of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.

Record-Breaking Adoption Metrics

The impact was immediate and unprecedented:

• Fastest ETF Launch in History: BlackRock's IBIT gathered $10 billion in assets within seven weeks, shattering records previously held by gold ETFs that took years to reach similar milestones.

• Total AUM Growth: By mid-2024, Bitcoin ETFs collectively held over $60 billion in assets, with net inflows consistently ranging from $200-500 million daily during strong market periods.

• Institutional Allocation: Financial advisors, pension funds, and wealth management platforms that were previously barred from Bitcoin exposure can now allocate with a simple ticker symbol. A typical portfolio manager can now add BTC exposure alongside SPY and AGG without custody concerns, security risks, or regulatory complications.

Why ETFs Change the Game

The structural advantages of ETFs over direct Bitcoin ownership include:

Regulatory Clarity: ETFs operate within established SEC frameworks, providing legal certainty for institutional investors bound by fiduciary duties.

Operational Simplicity: No need for cold storage, private key management, or specialized custody solutions. Bitcoin exposure trades like any equity.

Tax Efficiency: ETFs offer potential tax advantages over direct ownership, particularly for retirement accounts (401k, IRA) where Bitcoin ETFs can now be held tax-deferred.

Liquidity and Price Discovery: With billions in daily trading volume, ETFs provide deep liquidity and tighter spreads than many cryptocurrency exchanges.

Mainstream Distribution: ETFs are available through every major brokerage—Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard—bringing Bitcoin to hundreds of millions of investors who would never open a Coinbase account.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Previous cycles saw institutional adoption measured in dozens of companies. This cycle has seen:

• Over 1,000 institutional investors filing 13F forms disclosing Bitcoin ETF holdings
• State pension funds (Wisconsin Investment Board) allocating to Bitcoin ETFs
• Major hedge funds (Millennium Management, Citadel) taking positions totaling billions
• Traditional asset managers recommending 1-5% Bitcoin allocations in balanced portfolios

This represents a 100x increase in institutional accessibility compared to the previous cycle.

The Trump Factor: Political Tailwinds Replace Headwinds

From Hostile to Champion

Previous Bitcoin cycles occurred under administrations ranging from indifferent to hostile toward cryptocurrency:

• The Obama administration's focus on AML/KYC led to aggressive enforcement actions
• The Trump administration (2017-2021) saw Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warn against Bitcoin's use in illicit activities
• The Biden administration's approach through 2024 was characterized by enforcement-heavy regulation via agencies like the SEC under Gary Gensler

Trump's 2024 Pro-Bitcoin Transformation

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign marked an extraordinary reversal. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Trump pledged to:

• Make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet"
• Fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler (viewed as crypto-hostile)
• End the regulatory "war on crypto"
• Create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government
• Prevent the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

Policy Implications

With Trump's January 2025 inauguration, the regulatory environment has shifted dramatically:

Personnel Changes: The appointment of crypto-friendly regulators signals a departure from enforcement-first approaches. Reports suggest potential SEC leadership that understands blockchain technology.

Legislative Momentum: Republican control of Congress increases the likelihood of comprehensive crypto legislation, including stablecoin frameworks and clear custody rules.

Strategic Reserve Concept: While controversial, Trump's proposal to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve would represent unprecedented sovereign legitimization. Even if not fully implemented, the discussion alone validates Bitcoin's role as a monetary asset.

Global Competition Narrative: Trump's framing of crypto leadership as a national competitiveness issue changes the conversation from "should we allow this?" to "how do we win this?"

Historical Parallel: Gold in 1971

The closest historical parallel may be President Nixon's 1971 decision to end dollar-gold convertibility. While that severed the link to gold, it recognized gold's role in the monetary system. Trump's embrace of Bitcoin could represent a similar inflection point—not returning to a gold standard, but acknowledging Bitcoin's emergence as "digital gold" in a multipolar monetary system.

Quantitative Differences: This Cycle vs. Previous Cycles

Supply Dynamics

Previous Cycles: Bitcoin traded primarily on crypto-native exchanges with limited fiat on-ramps. Supply and demand were driven by retail speculation.

This Cycle:

• ETF inflows absorb 5,000-10,000 BTC weekly during strong periods
• Post-April 2024 halving, only 450 BTC are mined daily (approximately 3,150 weekly)
• Simple math: demand exceeds new supply by 2-3x, creating structural scarcity

Volatility Profile

Historical Bitcoin volatility exceeded 80% annualized during previous cycles. Early data from 2024 suggests:

• 30-day realized volatility averaging 40-50% with ETF flows
• Deeper liquidity cushioning extreme moves
• Institutional participation reducing panic selling

While still volatile by traditional asset standards, the trend toward lower volatility makes Bitcoin more palatable for risk-managed institutional portfolios.

Market Structure

Previous Cycles:

• 90%+ retail participation
• Thin order books
• Weekend/after-hours gaps common
• Manipulation concerns (whale wallets, exchange manipulation)

This Cycle:

• 40-50% institutional participation estimated
• 24/7 crypto markets now integrated with regulated ETF markets
• Improved custody and reporting standards
• Reduced manipulation risk through regulated products

Counter-Arguments and Risks

A balanced thesis must acknowledge significant counter-arguments:

"This Time Is Different" Is Dangerous

Financial history is littered with "this time is different" proclamations preceding crashes. The 2000 dot-com bubble and 2008 housing crisis both featured narratives of fundamental change that proved illusory. Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition—decentralized, censorship-resistant money—hasn't changed. Perhaps the cycle dynamics remain intact, and we're simply experiencing a larger version of previous patterns.

Regulatory Risk Remains

Despite Trump's rhetoric, actual policy implementation is uncertain:

• Congress may not pass meaningful crypto legislation
• Courts could overturn favorable regulatory changes
• A future administration could reverse course
• Global regulatory coordination (EU, China) may constrain U.S. policy

Market Maturation May Mean Lower Returns

ETFs and institutional adoption may signal Bitcoin's maturation from a high-risk/high-reward speculation to a moderate-risk/moderate-reward asset. Previous cycles saw 10x-100x gains. This cycle may see more modest 2x-5x appreciation as Bitcoin's market cap approaches $2-3 trillion, making parabolic gains mathematically harder.

Centralization Concerns

ETFs introduce custodial centralization—the antithesis of Bitcoin's core ethos. BlackRock and Fidelity now control hundreds of thousands of BTC. This concentration creates:

• Regulatory capture risk
• Potential government seizure points
• Dilution of Bitcoin's censorship-resistance properties

Trump Administration Uncertainty

Political promises often diverge from political reality. Trump's attention may shift to other priorities. His administration may face constraints from:

• Federal Reserve independence on monetary policy
• Congressional gridlock
• International pressure from allies concerned about dollar stability

Synthesis: A Structurally Different Cycle

Despite valid counter-arguments, the evidence supports the thesis that this cycle is fundamentally different:

Institutional Infrastructure: The ETF approval represents 10+ years of custody, security, and regulatory evolution. This infrastructure didn't exist in previous cycles and cannot be easily undone.

Political Legitimacy: Regardless of Trump's policy success, the president of the United States publicly championing Bitcoin marks a Rubicon crossing. No previous cycle had top-level political support; most had opposition.

Demand Profile: Institutional treasurers, pension funds, and wealth advisors operate on multi-year time horizons with fiduciary obligations. This "patient capital" differs markedly from retail traders chasing momentum.

Supply Shock Mechanics: With ETF demand potentially absorbing 2-3x new Bitcoin issuance weekly, the supply-demand imbalance is mathematically more severe than previous cycles, even accounting for slower demand growth.

Reduced Binary Risk: Previous cycles faced existential questions: "Will Bitcoin survive?" "Will governments ban it?" "Is it a scam?" These questions aren't fully resolved, but they're substantially de-risked by institutional adoption and political support.

Implications and Predictions

If this cycle is indeed structurally different, several implications follow:

Price Trajectory

Rather than the 80%+ drawdowns of previous cycles, this cycle may experience:

• Shallower corrections (40-50% maximum)
• Extended consolidation periods rather than sharp crashes
• Higher cycle lows (potentially $40,000-50,000 range)
• More modest but sustainable gains

Adoption Curve

Bitcoin may transition from the "early adopter" phase to "early majority" on the technology adoption curve:

• 1-2% portfolio allocations becoming standard practice
• Sovereign wealth funds following ETF entry points
• Central banks acknowledging Bitcoin in reserve discussions (even if not holding)
• Emerging markets using Bitcoin for cross-border settlement

Regulatory Endgame

This cycle may establish the regulatory framework that governs crypto for decades:

• Clear custody and taxation rules
• Stablecoin legislation creating dollar-backed digital rails
• DeFi regulations distinguishing decentralized protocols from securities
• International coordination on crypto standards

Market Evolution

Bitcoin may increasingly trade based on macroeconomic factors rather than crypto-specific narratives:

• Correlation with tech stocks and risk assets
• Sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy and inflation data
• Integration into multi-asset portfolio optimization models
• Derivatives markets (options, futures) providing sophisticated hedging tools

Conclusion

This Bitcoin cycle is different—not because Bitcoin itself has changed, but because the infrastructure around it and the political environment supporting it have transformed. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs created institutional accessibility that didn't exist in any previous cycle, bringing patient capital and regulatory legitimacy. Donald Trump's presidency provides political tailwinds replacing the headwinds that characterized previous administrations.

These are not merely incremental improvements; they represent structural changes to Bitcoin's market dynamics. However, "different" does not mean "immune to cycles" or "guaranteed success." Bitcoin remains volatile, speculative, and subject to regulatory and technological risks.

The most balanced conclusion: this cycle likely exhibits lower highs, higher lows, and a maturation of Bitcoin from a fringe speculation to a recognized—if controversial—component of the global financial system. The dramatic 100x gains of early cycles are probably behind us, but so too may be the existential crises that threatened Bitcoin's survival.

For investors, this suggests a more nuanced approach than "diamond hands" or "HODL" mantras of previous cycles. This is the cycle where Bitcoin either consolidates its position as "digital gold" with a permanent seat at the institutional table, or reveals itself as a temporary financial phenomenon. The ETF and Trump factors have stacked the odds in Bitcoin's favor, but the outcome remains to be written.

How Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto Helped Donald Trump Become the 47th President

On January 20th, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. His return to the Oval Office has sparked discussions worldwide, but one perspective stands out: the pivotal role Bitcoin and cryptocurrency played in enabling his second presidency. Without Satoshi Nakamoto's revolutionary invention, this political outcome, and its broader implications for the world, might never have come to pass.

The Power of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency, was introduced in 2009 by the pseudonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto. Initially dismissed by many as an experimental oddity, Bitcoin became the foundation for a new global financial system. It empowered individuals to transact and store value without relying on traditional banks or governments, ushering in a new era of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Over the years, Bitcoin’s influence has expanded beyond finance. It became a symbol of freedom from central authority, appealing to millions who sought transparency, privacy, and self-sovereignty. By the 2020s, its influence permeated politics, as the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency became a rallying cry for many.

Bitcoin’s Role in Trump’s 2024 Campaign

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency owes much to the grassroots support powered by cryptocurrency. Campaign financing in the modern era increasingly relies on small, direct contributions from individuals. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin allowed Trump's supporters to contribute to his campaign without traditional banking barriers, transcending geographical boundaries and political restrictions.

Moreover, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin helped counteract censorship and traditional financial roadblocks. During his 2024 campaign, there were significant efforts to deplatform and financially stifle his movement. Cryptocurrency provided an alternative, unshackled medium for fundraising and communication, enabling a resilient and resourceful campaign infrastructure.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Unlikely Role in Global Politics

It’s fascinating to consider the chain of events set in motion by Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention. Without Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency revolution might never have occurred. Without the decentralization and financial freedom Bitcoin enabled, Trump's political movement may have been unable to thrive in the face of institutional challenges.

Bitcoin not only financed the campaign but symbolized a deeper message: a rejection of centralized control. Trump's campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” resonated with the crypto community’s ethos of empowering individuals over institutions. For many, Bitcoin became a metaphor for self-determination, a fitting parallel to Trump's own brand of populist politics.

Bitcoin, Trump, and the World Stage

Donald Trump's second presidency, made possible in part by Bitcoin, presents a unique opportunity for cryptocurrency on the global stage. Trump has publicly expressed mixed views on Bitcoin in the past, but his second term could see a dramatic policy shift. Bitcoin and blockchain technology might now find a champion in the White House, shaping U.S. economic and technological policy for decades to come.

The geopolitical implications are enormous. A pro-Bitcoin administration could position the U.S. as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption and innovation, further decentralizing power and reshaping the global financial order. Trump’s presidency, enabled by Bitcoin, may also accelerate discussions about digital currencies' role in fostering individual freedoms and countering authoritarian control worldwide.

The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin Saved the World

The story doesn’t end with Trump. Bitcoin’s rise signifies something much larger: the dawn of a decentralized world. By removing the need for intermediaries, Bitcoin has empowered billions, fostering financial inclusion and innovation.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation didn’t just change finance, it reshaped society’s understanding of power, freedom, and trust. Whether they intended it or not, Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention has influenced everything from technology to politics, culminating in Donald Trump’s second presidency.

Conclusion

Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention of Bitcoin set off a chain reaction that, years later, helped Donald Trump become the 47th President of the United States. This event underscores the profound and unexpected ways Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are reshaping our world.

In the years to come, Trump’s presidency and its relationship with Bitcoin may redefine the global order. And while history will judge Trump’s leadership, one thing is clear: Satoshi Nakamoto’s legacy extends far beyond technology, it is now intertwined with the fate of nations.

Bitcoin saved the world. Satoshi Nakamoto saved the world. And now, Donald Trump has a chance to do the same.

Bitcoin’s Big Bet: How Trump’s Return Could Reshape Finance by 2035

Donald Trump returns to office in January 2025, his policies are expected to significantly impact Bitcoin, the broader cryptocurrency industry, and traditional finance. Here’s how the landscape may evolve over the next decade and what it could look like by 2035.

Potential Impact on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Trump's pro-crypto stance could accelerate Bitcoin adoption. He has previously suggested replacing the SEC's leadership, which many believe could foster a more favorable environment for Bitcoin ETFs and other crypto products. If these ETFs receive approval, it would likely drive increased institutional investment, which could lead to Bitcoin reaching all-time highs as early as 2025. By 2035, Bitcoin’s market position might solidify, becoming an integral asset class alongside traditional financial instruments​

Moreover, Trump's intention to create a crypto advisory council and reduce regulatory hurdles could spur development across the crypto sector, potentially attracting global investments. This regulatory shift may benefit not only Bitcoin but also the altcoin market and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, which could see fewer restrictions and greater innovation​

Challenges and Concerns

While Trump's policies might catalyze growth, they could also introduce volatility. His proposed tariffs and other protectionist policies may heighten inflation, which could impact crypto in unpredictable ways. Higher inflation might benefit Bitcoin initially due to its appeal as a hedge, yet sustained inflation could increase interest rates, dampening speculative investments in crypto​

Another potential downside lies in Trump’s inclination to work with large financial players like Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan. If Trump's administration prioritizes Wall Street over decentralization, smaller crypto startups might struggle, as major banks could dominate crypto services. This alignment could shift the ecosystem toward centralization, contrary to Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos​

Impact on Traditional Finance and the Broader Economy

By 2035, traditional finance may increasingly integrate crypto if a Trump administration normalizes cryptocurrency usage. Major banks could expand crypto offerings and investment products, allowing customers to hold and transact digital assets more freely. However, this could blur the lines between centralized finance (CeFi) and decentralized finance, potentially leading to regulatory challenges and market power consolidation among large financial institutions​

The 2035 Financial Landscape

If these trends continue, by 2035, the financial world could look like a hybrid system where traditional finance and decentralized assets coexist. Bitcoin may serve as a "digital gold" for institutional portfolios, while a limited number of cryptocurrencies find mainstream adoption. Regulatory clarity could attract more retail and institutional investors, but potential over-regulation might stifle innovation and limit smaller players’ market share.

In summary, Trump’s presidency could bring both opportunities and risks to the crypto industry. A supportive regulatory environment could boost adoption and market growth, while potential inflation and favoritism toward large institutions could curb the decentralized, open-access nature of cryptocurrency.

USA Elections 2024 and Bonfire Night in the UK: A Night of Democracy, History, and Anticipation For Bitcoin

November 5, 2024, is shaping up to be a night of high energy and deep significance on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, millions of Americans are heading to the polls to vote in a critical presidential election. At the same time, in the United Kingdom, people are gathering to celebrate Bonfire Night, or Guy Fawkes Night, with fireworks and bonfires. While these events are distinct in purpose and tradition, both involve themes of civic engagement, historical reflection, and the power of the people.

USA Elections 2024: The Stakes Are Higher Than Ever

In the United States, the 2024 election has captured global attention with a rematch that’s as polarizing as it is consequential. Voters are choosing between Donald Trump, who has mounted an unprecedented return campaign, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who represents continuity from the current administration. This election is not just a contest between two individuals; it reflects broader ideological divides within the country, from economic policies to healthcare reform to the United States' role on the world stage.

Donald Trump’s campaign has emphasized a return to his brand of economic populism, and border security, and promises to “drain the swamp” in Washington. His supporters view him as a champion of the working class and a force against establishment politics. Trump’s campaign has also centred on deregulatory policies, pledging to free businesses from perceived governmental constraints to foster economic growth. He’s taken a hard line on immigration, pushing for stricter policies and promising to restore "law and order."

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has focused on continuing the policies she supported as Vice President, such as affordable healthcare, climate action, and progressive social policies. Her campaign has emphasized unity, justice, and inclusivity, appealing to a broad coalition of young voters, minorities, and moderate Democrats. Harris has also made history as the first woman of colour to serve as Vice President, and if she wins, she would become the first female President in U.S. history—a milestone with enormous symbolic and practical impact.

The outcome of this election will shape the United States for years to come, impacting both domestic policy and international relations. The world will be watching as swing states tally their votes, and communities across the U.S. hold their breath in anticipation of the results.

Bitcoin and the Future of U.S. Financial Policy

One of the unique issues in this election has been the role of cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, in the American economy. Digital currencies have gained popularity as both an investment asset and a potential alternative to traditional banking systems. Each candidate has a different stance on how the U.S. should engage with Bitcoin and other digital currencies, which could impact the future of financial policy and the economy at large.

Donald Trump has been vocal in his scepticism of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, often warning of its potential risks and volatility. He has argued that cryptocurrency could undermine the U.S. dollar and facilitate illegal activities. A second Trump administration might push for stricter regulations on digital currencies to protect traditional banking and national economic stability. This could lead to policies that discourage or even restrict Bitcoin use, potentially limiting the growth of cryptocurrency markets within the U.S.

Kamala Harris, however, has taken a more open-minded approach to digital assets, considering cryptocurrency as an area ripe for innovation. While Harris has not fully endorsed Bitcoin as an alternative currency, she has signalled a willingness to work with blockchain experts and has proposed regulations that balance innovation with consumer protection. If Harris were to win, it’s possible that the U.S. would adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrency, integrating it more fully into the economy and even exploring a government-backed digital dollar, as some other countries have done.

Bonfire Night in the UK: A Celebration of Democracy and Tradition

While Americans are casting their votes, British people are marking Bonfire Night, a beloved tradition with its own unique historical significance. Also known as Guy Fawkes Night, Bonfire Night commemorates the failed Gunpowder Plot of 1605, when Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators attempted to blow up the Houses of Parliament and assassinate King James I. The plot was foiled, and the king survived, leading to annual celebrations of the monarchy's preservation and, over time, a broader reflection on British governance and unity.

Across the UK, communities come together to celebrate with firework displays, bonfires, and the burning of effigies of Guy Fawkes. Families gather in parks and back gardens to enjoy seasonal treats and watch the skies light up with bright, colourful displays. For many, Bonfire Night is a reminder of the long-standing democratic traditions in Britain and the importance of protecting freedom from the threat of violence and tyranny.

Bridging Two Worlds on November 5th

Although separated by geography and purpose, the events in the United States and the United Kingdom on November 5th are bonded by themes of history, tradition, and civic duty. For Americans, this election represents a chance to set a new direction or reaffirm a previous path, with the future of the economy, the climate, healthcare, and more hanging in the balance. For Britons, Bonfire Night is an opportunity to celebrate their rich history and the triumph of democratic ideals, while remembering that political engagement is as crucial today as it was in 1605.

Both the election and Bonfire Night evoke a shared spirit of community and collective action. While Americans await the final vote tallies, the skies over the UK will be filled with fireworks—a reminder that democracy, in all its forms, remains a powerful force for unity and progress. This November 5th, as votes are counted and bonfires are lit, the world is reminded of the enduring importance of people-powered change, from the streets of Washington to the parks of London.