BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETP will be listed on:
Tuesday, March 25, 2025
Friday, March 14, 2025
Bitcoin Futures and Options: How can options and or futures for Bitcoin be used to drive down the price of Bitcoin, with the intention of buying Bitcoin at a lower price knowing Bitcoin in the future will be much higher in value?
Using Bitcoin options and futures to drive down the price and accumulate BTC at lower levels is a strategy often employed by large institutional players, hedge funds, and whales. Here’s how this could be done:
[Bogdanoff driving prices down for the future :-)]
1. Using Bitcoin Futures to Push the Price Down
Bitcoin futures allow traders to take leveraged short positions, meaning they can profit from a price drop. Here’s how this can be used to suppress BTC price:
Step-by-Step Manipulative Strategy Using Futures:
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Open Large Short Positions:
- A trader (or coordinated group) opens a massive short position on Bitcoin using Bitcoin futures contracts on exchanges like CME, Binance, or Deribit.
- This creates an impression of bearish sentiment and increases selling pressure.
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Sell Spot Bitcoin Aggressively:
- At the same time, the trader sells a large amount of Bitcoin in the spot market, causing a short-term price drop.
- Since BTC markets are highly liquid but still relatively small compared to traditional markets, a large sell order can trigger cascading liquidations.
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Trigger Liquidations (Short Cascade Attack):
- Many traders use leveraged long positions. If the price drops suddenly, it triggers margin calls and liquidations, causing the price to drop further.
- This reinforces the downward momentum and may lead to panic selling.
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Use Media & FUD to Amplify Fear:
- Institutions or whales may spread negative news (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to further drive panic selling.
- News about regulations, exchange hacks, or bans can trigger emotional reactions, increasing selling pressure.
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Close the Short Position at a Profit & Accumulate Spot Bitcoin Cheaply:
- Once the price has dropped significantly, the trader closes the short positions at a profit.
- They then start accumulating BTC at lower prices in the spot market before the next bullish cycle.
2. Using Bitcoin Options to Suppress Price
Bitcoin options provide a way to influence market sentiment and cause price suppression. Here’s how:
Step-by-Step Strategy Using Options:
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Buy Large Amounts of Put Options:
- The trader buys a significant amount of put options (which profit when Bitcoin falls).
- Large put buying can signal to the market that a big player is betting on a price drop, causing others to sell.
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Short Sell in Spot & Futures Market:
- Simultaneously, they sell BTC in the spot market and open short futures positions to force a decline.
- If the price drops, put options increase in value, generating profits.
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Gamma Squeeze & Options Market Impact:
- Market makers who sold the put options need to hedge their risk by shorting Bitcoin, increasing selling pressure.
- If Bitcoin price nears a critical option strike level, market makers may further sell BTC to remain hedged, reinforcing the decline.
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Close Put Options & Buy BTC at Lower Prices:
- Once Bitcoin reaches the target lower level, the trader sells their put options for profit.
- Then, they start accumulating Bitcoin at a discount before the price recovers.
Real-World Example:
- CME Bitcoin Futures Expirations:
- Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to decline before CME Bitcoin futures contract expirations. This is often attributed to large players manipulating the market to profit from shorts before expiration.
- May 2021 & November 2022 Crashes:
- Institutions took advantage of negative sentiment (China mining bans, FTX collapse, interest rate hikes) to short BTC aggressively.
- Once liquidations happened, they bought back BTC at lower prices before the next rally.
Conclusion:
By strategically using futures and options, sophisticated traders can temporarily suppress Bitcoin’s price, profit from the downturn, and then buy BTC at lower levels. This requires large capital, leverage, and market influence, but similar tactics have been observed repeatedly in Bitcoin’s history.
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Source: ChatGPT
Tuesday, March 4, 2025
Bitcoin Power Law Code for TradingView (Pine Editor Pinescript) by @apsk32
Step 1: Copy/paste this code into the Pine Editor window and click save.
//@version
=6
indicator("Power Law", overlay=true)
// Days X-Axis Value
start = time == timestamp(2010, 7, 18, 0, 0)
days = request.security('INDEX:BTCUSD', 'D', ta.barssince(start))
offset = 561 // days between 2009/1/3 and "start"
d = days + offset
a = input(-17.668, 'Power Law Intercept',group = "Power Law Settings")
b = input(5.926, 'Power Law Slope',group = "Power Law Settings")
price_power_law_0 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d))
price_power_law_1 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+1*365))
price_power_law_2 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+2*365))
price_power_law_3 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+3*365))
price_power_law_4 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+4*365))
price_power_law_5 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+5*365))
p0 = plot(price_power_law_0, color=#ffffffaa, title='Power Law',linewidth = 1)
p1 = plot(price_power_law_1, title='Power Law 1',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p2 = plot(price_power_law_2, title='Power Law 2',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p3 = plot(price_power_law_3, title='Power Law 3',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p4 = plot(price_power_law_4, title='Power Law 4',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p5 = plot(price_power_law_5, title='Power Law 5',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)Step 2: Go to "Indicators" "Personal" and select the "Power Law" script. The years ahead metric should now be displayed.
************************************************
Credit:
- All goes to APSK32 on X/Twitter.
- The original post is https://x.com/apsk32/status/1891203202017644943
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Will the USA Establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026? Analysing the Prospects
The idea of governments incorporating cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into their fiscal strategies is becoming less far-fetched. However, the notion that the United States might announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) by 2026 remains highly speculative and is mired in economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties. Here’s a deeper dive into the feasibility of such a development.
Understanding the Concept of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would mean that the federal government, much like with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, holds a stockpile of Bitcoin as part of its national treasury assets. This could serve multiple purposes: hedging against financial crises, bolstering the dollar's position by diversifying reserves, or even as a strategic asset in trade negotiations. But the path to such an initiative is fraught with hurdles.
Economic and Regulatory Challenges
The volatile nature of Bitcoin poses a significant risk for any government considering its reserve status. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are notorious, and its valuation can swing wildly based on market sentiment, regulatory news, and technological developments. For a conservative entity like a national government, these characteristics make Bitcoin a risky reserve asset.
Moreover, regulatory frameworks in the USA are still catching up with the fast-paced evolution of cryptocurrencies. Issues surrounding tax implications, anti-money laundering (AML) standards, and consumer protection are still being debated. Establishing a reserve would require robust legal frameworks that are currently lacking.
Political Landscape
The political environment regarding cryptocurrencies in the USA is complex and varied. While some lawmakers advocate for progressive cryptocurrency regulations and promote innovation in blockchain technologies, others are staunchly opposed, citing financial risks and potential misuse for illicit activities. This division makes it difficult to achieve the consensus needed to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
Public Perception and Institutional Readiness
Public trust in Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency technologies is mixed. While there is significant interest and investment from the private sector, the general population remains skeptical about the stability and utility of cryptocurrencies. Without broad public support, a move as bold as establishing a Bitcoin reserve could be politically unviable.
Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department would also need to significantly adapt their operations to manage a Bitcoin reserve. This includes developing new tools for risk assessment, market intervention, and asset management specific to cryptocurrencies.
Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
Predicting a strategic move such as establishing a Bitcoin reserve by 2026 is challenging. It would require a dramatic shift in regulatory posture, economic strategy, and political will, all within a relatively short timeframe. Given the current landscape, it appears unlikely that the United States will announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026. However, as with all things crypto, the unexpected can always happen.
As stakeholders in the financial world continue to watch the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in global economics, the discussion about its potential integration into national reserves remains a topic of hot debate and speculation. Whether or not the USA takes a monumental step towards such an integration by 2026 remains to be seen, but what is certain is that the conversation isn’t going away anytime soon.
Monday, January 20, 2025
How Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto Helped Donald Trump Become the 47th President
On January 20th, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. His return to the Oval Office has sparked discussions worldwide, but one perspective stands out: the pivotal role Bitcoin and cryptocurrency played in enabling his second presidency. Without Satoshi Nakamoto's revolutionary invention, this political outcome, and its broader implications for the world, might never have come to pass.
The Power of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency, was introduced in 2009 by the pseudonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto. Initially dismissed by many as an experimental oddity, Bitcoin became the foundation for a new global financial system. It empowered individuals to transact and store value without relying on traditional banks or governments, ushering in a new era of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Over the years, Bitcoin’s influence has expanded beyond finance. It became a symbol of freedom from central authority, appealing to millions who sought transparency, privacy, and self-sovereignty. By the 2020s, its influence permeated politics, as the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency became a rallying cry for many.
Bitcoin’s Role in Trump’s 2024 Campaign
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency owes much to the grassroots support powered by cryptocurrency. Campaign financing in the modern era increasingly relies on small, direct contributions from individuals. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin allowed Trump's supporters to contribute to his campaign without traditional banking barriers, transcending geographical boundaries and political restrictions.
Moreover, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin helped counteract censorship and traditional financial roadblocks. During his 2024 campaign, there were significant efforts to deplatform and financially stifle his movement. Cryptocurrency provided an alternative, unshackled medium for fundraising and communication, enabling a resilient and resourceful campaign infrastructure.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s Unlikely Role in Global Politics
It’s fascinating to consider the chain of events set in motion by Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention. Without Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency revolution might never have occurred. Without the decentralization and financial freedom Bitcoin enabled, Trump's political movement may have been unable to thrive in the face of institutional challenges.
Bitcoin not only financed the campaign but symbolized a deeper message: a rejection of centralized control. Trump's campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” resonated with the crypto community’s ethos of empowering individuals over institutions. For many, Bitcoin became a metaphor for self-determination, a fitting parallel to Trump's own brand of populist politics.
Bitcoin, Trump, and the World Stage
Donald Trump's second presidency, made possible in part by Bitcoin, presents a unique opportunity for cryptocurrency on the global stage. Trump has publicly expressed mixed views on Bitcoin in the past, but his second term could see a dramatic policy shift. Bitcoin and blockchain technology might now find a champion in the White House, shaping U.S. economic and technological policy for decades to come.
The geopolitical implications are enormous. A pro-Bitcoin administration could position the U.S. as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption and innovation, further decentralizing power and reshaping the global financial order. Trump’s presidency, enabled by Bitcoin, may also accelerate discussions about digital currencies' role in fostering individual freedoms and countering authoritarian control worldwide.
The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin Saved the World
The story doesn’t end with Trump. Bitcoin’s rise signifies something much larger: the dawn of a decentralized world. By removing the need for intermediaries, Bitcoin has empowered billions, fostering financial inclusion and innovation.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation didn’t just change finance, it reshaped society’s understanding of power, freedom, and trust. Whether they intended it or not, Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention has influenced everything from technology to politics, culminating in Donald Trump’s second presidency.
Conclusion
Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention of Bitcoin set off a chain reaction that, years later, helped Donald Trump become the 47th President of the United States. This event underscores the profound and unexpected ways Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are reshaping our world.
In the years to come, Trump’s presidency and its relationship with Bitcoin may redefine the global order. And while history will judge Trump’s leadership, one thing is clear: Satoshi Nakamoto’s legacy extends far beyond technology, it is now intertwined with the fate of nations.
Bitcoin saved the world. Satoshi Nakamoto saved the world. And now, Donald Trump has a chance to do the same.
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Happy New Year for 2025 and beyond
As we bid farewell to 2024 and welcome the dawn of 2025, I wish everyone health, happiness, and success in the year ahead.
Stay positive, embrace gratitude, and cherish all that you have.
How will these factors unfold in 2025 and beyond?
- The return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
- Shifting geopolitics involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, North Korea, Yemen, the Houthis, and Israel, each could shape the global landscape.
- Economic concerns like inflation, interest rates, and the rise of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve also loom large.
- What will become of Bitcoin’s price and the Bitcoin Power Law?
- How will artificial intelligence continue to redefine our world?
Happy New Year,
BBCD SATOSHI
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Any date from 2009 to 2051 Bitcoin Price (Log/Log) Power Law Growth Corridor
Use this table to find the price of Bitcoin on any given date up to the year 2051
This table shows the low, medium or high price based on the Bitcoin Power Law (Log/Log) Power Law Growth Corridor.
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The log/log power law governing Bitcoin appears robust. However, could there be a plausible and logical scenario in which this power law i...
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Donald Trump returns to office in January 2025, his policies are expected to significantly impact Bitcoin, the broader cryptocurrency indust...
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BlackRock has big influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem. For example with the development of the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and investments within the ...