Will the 2024 Bitcoin Halving be a 'disappointment'?

I wouldn't be surprised if the 2024 Bitcoin halving becomes a massive 'disappointment' for those people with unrealistic high expectations.

Bitcoins will then flow towards large institutional investors who have lower time preferences. This will be from individual/retail investors and traders who will either fully or partially capitulate, by selling their Bitcoins on the open market. Fidelity, BlackRock, et al will scoop up the fire sale Bitcoins and add to their ever growing inventory.

The Bitcoin halving in 2028 and 2032 will be the halvings to watch. FOMO and FOLO (Fear Of Losing Out) will again be the watch words.

Remember, Bitcoin tends to do the opposite of what you expect.

I guess there is a 50% chance I'm either right or wrong...

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/

Nostr public key for BBCD Satoshi

You can now find me on Nostr. I've joined the herd!

Time will tell if it is a flash in the pan or a winner. I think it will be a winner if it is somehow integrated with Twitter in some form or another, or Elon Musk uses the protocol for his vision of an everything app.

The public key for BBCD Satoshi is:

• npub1873zdgumgaaruxamzrh3x6uvvtfzum947trfrs2plpl0gxek0ztqlfzsva
• https://astral.ninja/npub1873zdgumgaaruxamzrh3x6uvvtfzum947trfrs2plpl0gxek0ztqlfzsva
• Please note: When using Nostr, try using https://astral.ninja/ or https://snort.social/

• Nostr, stands for “Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays,” doesn't rely on a central server, nor is it a peer-to-peer architecture. 
• In its most fundamental form, it allows people to exchange signed messages. 
• It does so through a network of relays, which are servers anyone can sign up to run.
• Nostr is a simple, open protocol that enables global, decentralized, and censorship-resistant social media.
• Understanding keys... Each Nostr account is based on a public/private key pair. 
• A simple way to think about this is that your public key is your username and your private key is your password, with one major caveat. 
• Unlike a password, your private key cannot be reset if lost. 
• The public key is generally presented as a string with the prefix npub1 and the private key with the prefix nsec1. 
• Make sure you store you private key somewhere safe, like a password manager.

1. https://nostr.com/
2. https://nostr.how/
3. https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nostr
4. https://nostr.directory/
5. https://astral.ninja/
6. https://snort.social/

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/

Is there a salary or wage effect on the price of Bitcoin?

A few questions and thoughts about a salary or wage effect on the price of Bitcoin?...

1. With people choosing to be paid their salary and wages in Bitcoin, is there a notable effect on the price of Bitcoin? This means someone who is paid in Bitcoin may then choose to sell that Bitcoin or parts into fiat currency.
2. If there is an effect, will this become stronger and more notable overtime as Bitcoin adoption increases?
3. If x number of people are being paid in Bitcoin, does this mean there is a spike in Bitcoins being purchased for salary and wages to be paid by companies?
4. If x number of people are being paid in Bitcoin, how many of those people either save/HODL their Bitcoin or decide to sell their Bitcoin into fiat money?
5. Can these buying and selling periods be correlated at certain times of each month, e.g beginning, middle of end of the months to co-inside when people are paid and consequently cash out?
6. Can AI such as OpenAI ChatGPT spot any correlations for a salary or wage effect on the price of Bitcoin?

Thoughts?

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/

Interview with BBCD Satoshi about the book “Buy Bitcoin, You’ll Thank Yourself In The Future”

Interview with BBCD Satoshi about the book “Buy Bitcoin, You’ll Thank Yourself In The Future”

Why did you write the book?

• “The purpose of writing the book, and also setting up the accompanying website is to show and give confidence to someone looking to dip their toes into buying and or holding (hodling) Bitcoin.” 

• “At a basic level, I wanted to impart the small amount of knowledge I had learned about Bitcoin which took me several years of reading and discovery. With the knowledge just in my head, that would be no good when I am no longer here! I was diagnosed with a type of cancer in 2022, and that was a wake up call to me. So, the idea of writing the book was a way of imparting knowledge in a non ephemeral, long lasting way. Maybe one day my son will read the book and either laugh or cry out of hope or despair.”

• “The other purpose was to help guide and sort the wheat from the chaff. This is to focus on quality products and services, rather than fly by night untrustworthy businesses. Another way of saying that would be to help people focus on the signal rather than the noise.”

• “Everything in the book is focused on Bitcoin, and I make a clear distinction between the meaning of Bitcoin versus Crypto. There is only one true cryptocurrency and that is Bitcoin. All other cryptocurrencies are known as crypto and they are not Bitcoin, in my opinion.”

Who is the book aimed at?

• “The book is aimed at someone with no knowledge of Bitcoin or someone with a little knowledge." 

• "It is also aimed at someone that is interested and curious how Bitcoin could be an investment for the long term. Someone looking for a catalyst or a primer to help them on their journey of learning about Bitcoin."

• "Holding onto a volatile asset for 10 years is not easy. The book aims to focus on someone looking to have a plan and strategy to hold on to Bitcoin for 10 years, if not 20 years. As an example the Log Time Log Price model created by Harold Christopher Burger gets a thorough mention in the new book which is a fascinating graph/chart to look at when looking at Bitcoin on a long term perspective.”

What is the purpose of the book?

• “This comes back to the first question. The purpose of the book is to impart a few years of non programming, general Bitcoin knowledge to the reader, which can potentially give confidence to someone looking to buy and hold Bitcoin. It took me about 12 months to gain confidence before I eventually bought Bitcoin. The learning curve is steep.”

• “The issue with Bitcoin and buying some is trust. How can you trust the place or business where you are buying Bitcoin? This is central, because people have worked hard for their money and to just buy Bitcoin from an entity they have potentially never done business with is a risk. Especially when the item they are buying exists only within the digital realm, i.e something they can’t physically hold. Of course, the way that this can be held is with a physical hardware wallet, and your seed phrase either written down on paper or inscribed into metal. Getting back to trust, this is very important. We are starting to see some major household brands enter into the realm of Bitcoin. This is very important to give someone the confidence to invest. The two names that spring to mind are Fidelity and PayPal. The point I am making is that until major household brands enter and stay in the Bitcoin and Digital Asset space, trust will be in short supply.”

• “Trust can also be for the reader. How can the reader trust themselves that they will stick to their plan/strategy? How can they trust that they will keep their private key secure? How can they trust they won’t lose their seed/recovery phrase?”

• “In summary, I’d say that the purpose of the book is to help someone do their own research and find answers to their questions before buying Bitcoin. Ultimately to give them confidence to dip their toes into buying and or holding (hodling) Bitcoin. All with the caveat that one day, all their investment for whatever reason may have gone or disappeared.”

• https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/

• Available to purchase from:

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • Kobo
  • Barnes & Noble

Book now available ("Buy Bitcoin, You'll Thank Yourself In The Future")

I wrote a simple book about Bitcoin... with the purpose to show and give confidence to someone looking to dip their toes into buying and or holding (hodling) Bitcoin. It's called "Buy Bitcoin, You'll Thank Yourself In The Future".

https://bbcdsatoshi.com/Books/

New book

I'm in the process of writing and publishing a new book. More details to follow in the next few weeks and months. As always, lots of interesting and dynamic things happening.

Gotta love Bitcoin memes and humour - CRAB-17 STAGE II (Rothschilds bow to Bogdanoff)

Memes and humour always tell a small truth. This is especially true in any field of interest, the community and sub culture. This holds true for Bitcoin. 

Gotta love this one from the content producer Bizonacci on YouTube. This video is deftly edited and contains a possible grain of truth in the area of manipulation and human psychology pertaining to the markets, notably Bitcoin. Brilliant video, enjoy.

Rothschilds bow to Bogdanoff. CRAB-17 STAGE II

https://youtu.be/y28Diszaoo4

End of Q2 2022 - wow!

Well that was a rocky Q2 2022! Wonder what we have coming for Q3...?

There is literally too much to talk about, thus I feel there is no place or need to discuss at length until next year on January 2023.

If things get rocky, zoom out and remember why you are focused on Bitcoin:

https://bbcdsatoshi.blogspot.com/p/rationale.html

Annual Review (Rather Than Quarterly Review)

I've decided to do "Annual Reviews", rather than "Quarterly Reviews" (for the time being).

The Quarterly Reviews were taking up too much time and felt too zoomed in (micro), rather than taking a more zoomed out (macro) approach. 

There is too much happening in the world economically, financially, politically and also within the Bitcoin world and wider cryptocurrency industry to focus on a quarterly basis. Things were too noisy. Hopefully by keeping to an annual cadence there will be more signal amongst the noise.

Here is the first annual review for 2021:

https://bbcdsatoshi.blogspot.com/2022/03/bbcd-satoshi-quarterly-newsletter.html

Contrarian View and Opinions for Bitcoin (from The Financial Times)

Contrarian Views and Opinions for Bitcoin from The Financial Times

It's always good to have health skepticism. Listen to both sides of the story and opinions. This is especially true for Bitcoin.

Jemima Kelly from the Financial Times has written an article which I recommend reading:
https://www.ft.com/content/f220f44f-3627-4797-b6fe-9253563db49d

The best part of the article is reading the comments section:
https://www.ft.com/content/f220f44f-3627-4797-b6fe-9253563db49d#comments-anchor

As taken from the website: "Jemima writes for FT Alphaville. She was previously a reporter at Reuters, where she mainly wrote about the foreign exchange market, cryptocurrencies and fintech. She has also written for The Economist."

jemima.kelly@ft.com
https://twitter.com/jemimajoanna
https://www.ft.com/stream/29cd35b2-bbfb-4a4c-9b2a-5bddbcde7ee7

Recommended Products and Services

Here is a list of BBCD Satoshi recommended products and services:

• Ledger
• Trezor
• Cryptosteel
• Casa
• Coinbase
• Gemini
• Kraken
• Fireblocks

Bradbury Pound

“Why was the Bradbury Pound introduced in 1914?”

The Bradbury pound was introduced in 1914 at the outbreak of the First World War. The Government at the time needed to preserve its stock of bullion so asked the Bank of England to cease paying out gold for its notes. Instead the Treasury printed and issued 10 shilling and £1 notes (so called Bradbury pounds). The gold standard was then partially restored in 1925 and the Bank of England was again obliged to exchange its notes for gold, but only in multiples of 400 ounces or more. Britain left the gold standard in 1931 and the note issue became entirely fiduciary, that is wholly backed by securities instead of gold.

I wonder if this was introduced again as version 2.0, what the impact would be for Bitcoin?

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/683458/FOI2018-00037_Bradbury_Pound.pdf

Best dashboard for Bitcoin, by Clark Moody

This is a fantastic dashboard from Clark Moody (don't forget to scroll right and left!)

https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

Q1 2022 Newsletter (Issue 2: Q1 2022)

Issue 2: Q1 2022

Dear Reader,

Hello and Welcome. This is the second issue of the Bitcoin Investing Quarterly Newsletter & Report.

This issue looks at Q1 2022 (January, February and March).

Introduction

The focus for this newsletter is long term investing, so our view looks on a monthly and yearly basis. “Buy Bitcoin, you’ll thank yourself in the future”.

In this newsletter the main fiat currency used will be the British Pound Sterling (GBP). In the previous issue I also focused on US dollar (USD), however as I am based in the UK and only focus on GBP I’ll focus on that for the time being. It’s possible in subsequent newsletters I’ll go back to US dollar (USD) and possibly include the Euro (EUR) and or Japanese Yen (JPY). I’m still working on creating a metric for measuring Bitcoin in price of Gold per kilo, will let you know when/if this is in a publishable state.

This newsletter is a compilation of notes, research and analysis that I use for my own Bitcoin investing. Rather than keeping this closed and only for me, my thought has been to open this up for subscribers. For the time taken for the research that is where the subscription fee comes in. Hopefully you’ll find this newsletter useful and or valuable and will subscribe as a paying member.

This newsletter is for simple decision making, based on your own strategy and goals that you define for holding or selling Bitcoin. This newsletter is not about exotic investing such as margin trading, shorting, futures, options or other derivatives. Just simple spot buying and selling of Bitcoin, nothing fancy. An alternative name for the newsletter could be: “The HODL report with a bit of Buying and Selling of Bitcoin”.

Q1 2022 Summary

Q1 2022 (January, February and March):

• A lot can happen in 3 months or 12 weeks. We’ve now entered a hot war between Ukraine and Russia.
• Some commentators have said this is the start of World War 3.
• As of today (1st April 2022), Putin has said he will shut off gas to some countries.
• Cost of living crisis is spiralling in the UK and elsewhere.
• Governments seem to be asleep at the wheel while we all watch a slow motion train crash of inflation and living cost pressures.
• With all of the above, there seems to be more and more prescience from Satoshi Nakamoto and the Bitcoin believers. Almost to the point of foreseeing the future. Was all  this inevitable?
• Will there have to be a war which will then lead to a financial reset?
• Jack Dorsey said months ago we are entering a period of hyperinflation.
• I’m not sure it will be a sustained period of hyperinflation, but there will be a shock of inflation. Will this lead to a recession World Wide? It may depend on government responses. For example, it’s worth looking at the Bradbury Pounds in the UK from 1914 (First World War) and see how a similar system could be put in place.

All the above factors play into the narrative of geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty in the World.

This is an environment that Bitcoin was either created for, or has naturally come to embrace. Bitcoin embodies its role as the financial and monetary release valve or black hole of monetary gravity.

This enables Bitcoin to be harnessed by ordinary people to protect their money, capital and wealth.

Q1 2022 Bitcoin Results for GBP

How did Bitcoin fair in Q1 2022 within the above macro environment?

Bitcoin reached a high of:

£36,825.74

Bitcoin reached a low of:

£24,450.00

Based on the results from Q1 2022, I will be looking to use the best day to buy and sell for Q2 2022.

The best day to buy (lowest price) is likely to be:

• Week 1 of month on Monday, Friday or Sunday at 13:00 UTC

The best day to sell (highest price) is likely to be:

• Week 5 (or last week) of month on Thursday at 21:00 UTC

Source: Data for above USD and GBP compiled from Coinbase via TradingView. Please note the figures above are accurate compared to the visual graph figures which are approximate.

Graph Visualisations for Investing In & Out:

Note: The following graphs were compiled by BBCD Satoshi using data from Coinbase via TradingView. Please note the figures shown on the graphs are approximate, whereas the figures in tables are accurate.

British Pound (GBP)

Logarithmic View of GBP: All time

Logarithmic View of GBP: 2022

Logarithmic View of GBP: 2022 Daily

Logarithmic View of GBP: 2022 MACD and RSI

Experiment for Best Day, Week Number and Time to Buy/Sell Bitcoin

This is based on looking at each month in the year to see pattern(s). There can be many factors that cause these patterns.

• One hypothesis could be the salary effect, whereby people paid in Bitcoin are sent their Bitcoin and then cash out into their local currency within a day or two of receiving their salary/wages.
• Another hypothesis can be looking at Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)  into and out of Bitcoin. Algo Trading, Bots and also humans setting a specific day of the week, week number in the month and time in UTC to either buy or sell Bitcoin. As institutions and corporations invest in Bitcoin, the other aspect to consider will be quarters in the year when portfolios are rebalanced.
• I personally think both of these hypotheses will have a bigger impact going forward. Maybe we’ll see the DCA effect clearer

GBP

• I’ve limited this experiment to only GBP.
• This is an experiment currently, but so far has indeed been useful for buying and selling.
• On a rolling basis:
• The best day to buy (lowest price) is likely to be: Week 1 of month on Monday, Friday or Sunday at 13:00 UTC
• The best day to sell (highest price) is likely to be: Week 5 (or last week) of month on Thursday at 21:00 UTC

Data download:

For subscribers please click on the download area for formatted data files. These should be in CSV and Excel format.

Further project for AI and Machine Learning

Over the coming year I’m hoping to make use of machine learning and or artificial intelligence to start making predictions based on previous data. This will enable Bitcoin investors to focus on specific days of the week, week number in a month and quarter for planning ahead to optimise entry and exit for Bitcoin investments. Watch this space.

Publically Available Graphs, Statistics & Metrics for Bitcoin:

These very useful and excellent charts have been created by third parties. Please take your time to become familiar with them if you are not already. I highly recommend subscribing to the authors websites and social media posts.

• Puell Multiple
• Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
• Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves/Power Law

Puell Multiple:

Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

See also:

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=indicators.PuellMultiple

https://medium.com/unconfiscatable/the-puell-multiple-bed755cfe358

https://twitter.com/cryptopoiesis

Stock-to-Flow:

Source: https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=indicators.StockToFlowRatio

See also:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD

Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves:

Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

See also:

https://twitter.com/hcburger1

https://t.co/Qi94ZDV14p

https://medium.com/quantodian-publications/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

Selected Products and Services:

Kraken OTC (https://www.kraken.com/features/otc-exchange/)

If you are considering making considerable purchases of Bitcoin, I would consider using the OTC (Over The Counter) desk at Kraken.

This would be for purchases over $100,000

I recommend looking at and considering Kraken OTC:

From their website marketing:

“Over-the-counter (OTC) trading takes place off the open Kraken exchange. We offer deeper liquidity and a private, more personalized service to institutions and high net-worth individuals needing to fill large orders that might be too disruptive if placed on open markets at the exchanges. Whether you are trading blocks of $100,000, €10,000,000 or 2,000 Bitcoin, the OTC desk will provide you with execution and settlement services that are discreet, secure and ultra-competitive.”

https://www.kraken.com/features/otc-exchange/

Casa (https://keys.casa)

Something to seriously consider with Bitcoin is what would happen to your Bitcoin in the event of your death.

Alternatively, how can you securely plan your inheritance with respect to your Bitcoin holdings?

I recommend looking at and considering Casa.

From their website marketing:

“Casa Inheritance keeps your bitcoin safe, even after you pass away. Included with every Casa Diamond membership.”

https://keys.casa

Google Trends:

Searches for the word “Bitcoin”

Past Year

Last 5 Years

Halving Countdown:

The next Bitcoin halving where the supply is cut in half is likely to be in 2024.

Please see this dashboard for further details (scroll right and left for the full dashboard)

https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

Selected Important News from Q1 2022:

1. What’s up with the S2F? A look at the popular Bitcoin model. The model that attempts to predict the price of bitcoin has come under much scrutiny — is the criticism valid?

Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/whats-up-with-bitcoin-stock-to-flow

2. El Salvador Postpones Bitcoin Bond: Report The country's finance minister said the offering may come as late as September, according to Reuters.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/03/22/el-salvador-postpones-planned-bitcoin-bond-report/

3. Crypto vs gold: the search for an investment bolt hole

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/d497772f-7422-4372-b72d-f74f96884466

4. MicroStrategy Takes Out $205M Bitcoin-Backed Loan to Buy More Bitcoin. A subsidiary of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is leveraging its Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin with a $205 million loan from Silvergate Bank

Source: https://decrypt.co/96313/microstrategy-takes-out-205m-bitcoin-backed-loan-buy-more-bitcoin

Q1 2022 Conclusion

For Q1 2022, GBP Bitcoin reached a high of £36,826 and a low of £24,450. The median Bitcoin price was £30,638.

There has been talk of a crypto winter and also rises in the value of Bitcoin, so it’s hard to gauge which way the market will go. People in the Bitcoin space are literally hedging their bets with the geo political, economic, and financial uncertainty.

The weekly RSI went above 50 and also the MACD flipped a green bar which historically is a good sign.

Q1 2022 saw increases in the value of Bitcoin when measured against fiat currency.

In terms of safety and a place to keep capital, this is a 50/50 based on a risk management perspective. If you need access to a portable, secure, non confiscatable asset then Bitcoin is the choice.

A Lot can happen in the world of Bitcoin in 3 x months (1 x quarter), so let's see how Q2 of 2022 does in the next issue.

Thank you for reading.

Any comments or suggestions are welcome at Twitter/bbcdsatoshi

“Buy Bitcoin, you’ll thank yourself in the future”.

BBCD Satoshi Quarterly Newsletter (Issue 1: 2021 Review)

Issue 1: 2021 Review

Hello and Welcome,

This is the first issue of the Bitcoin Investing Quarterly Newsletter & Report.

This issue is a look back at 2021 to set the stage for this current year 2022 and beyond.

Contents

• Introduction
• 2021 Macro Summary
• 2021 Bitcoin Results
• Graph Visualisation for Investing In & Out (DCA) USD and GBP
• High, Low and Median tables
• Experiment for Best Day, Week Number and Time to Buy/Sell Bitcoin
• Recommended Publically Available Graphs, Statistics & Metrics for Bitcoin
• Selected Products and Services
• Google Trends
• Halving Countdown
• Selected Important News from 2021
• Conclusion

Introduction

The focus for this newsletter is long term investing, so our view looks on a monthly and yearly basis. “Buy Bitcoin, you’ll thank yourself in the future”.

This newsletter is a compilation of notes, research and analysis that I use for my own Bitcoin investing. Rather than keeping this closed and only for me, my thought has been to open this up for subscribers. For the time taken for the research that is where the subscription fee comes in. Hopefully you’ll find this newsletter useful and or valuable and will subscribe as a paying member.

This newsletter is for simple decision making, based on your own strategy and goals that you define for holding or selling Bitcoin. This newsletter is not about exotic investing such as margin trading, shorting, futures, options or other derivatives. Just simple spot buying and selling of Bitcoin, nothing fancy. An alternative name for the newsletter could be: “The HODL report with a bit of Buying and Selling of Bitcoin”.

In this newsletter the main fiat currency used will be the US dollar (USD) and British Pound Sterling (GBP). However, in subsequent newsletter issues the Euro (EUR) and or Japanese Yen (JPY) may be used if I am able to and also if there is any interest. Incidentally, I’ve always thought measuring Bitcoin in price of Gold per kilo would be a more accurate measure of the true value of Bitcoin, rather than in fiat currency.

2021 Macro Summary

2021 was a year that remained in COVID 19 limbo. This resulted in issues such as:

• Supply chain fragility e.g. Ever Given tanker that was stuck in the Suez Canal
• Semiconductor shortages
• All time high stock markets
• Discussion of reducing quantitative easing by central banks
• Discussion of increasing interest rates
• Russia and Ukraine potential conflict (as of writing, this is now a hot war)
• Geopolitical tensions including China, Taiwan, USA

All the above factors play into the narrative of geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty in the World.

This is an environment that Bitcoin was either created for, or has naturally come to embrace. Bitcoin embodies its role as the financial and monetary release valve or black hole of monetary gravity.

This enables Bitcoin to be harnessed by ordinary people to protect their money, capital and wealth.

2021 Bitcoin Results

How did Bitcoin fair in 2021 within the above macro environment?

USD ($) in 2021

• Bitcoin reached a high of $69,000
• Bitcoin reached a low of $27,678
• The spread for the year was $41,322

USD ($) in 2021

GBP (£) in 2021

• Bitcoin reached a high of £51,000
• Bitcoin reached a low of £19,500
• The spread for the year was £31,500

GBP (£) in 2021

Source: Data for above USD and GBP compiled from Coinbase via TradingView. Please note the figures above are accurate compared to the visual graph figures which are approximate.

Graph Visualisations for Investing In & Out:

Graph Dotted Lines Legend :

Note: The following graphs were compiled by BBCD Satoshi using data from Coinbase via TradingView. Please note the figures shown on the graphs are approximate, whereas the figures in tables are accurate.

US Dollar (USD)

Logarithmic View of USD: All time

Logarithmic View of USD: 2021

Logarithmic View of USD: Fibonacci Retracement

Logarithmic View of USD: Target for 2030

British Pound (GBP)

Logarithmic View of GBP: All time

Logarithmic View of GBP: 2021

Logarithmic View of GBP: Fibonacci Retracement

Logarithmic View of GBP: Target for 2030

USD

GBP

Experiment for Best Day, Week Number and Time to Buy/Sell Bitcoin

This is based on looking at each month in the year to see pattern(s). There can be many factors that cause these patterns.

• One hypothesis could be the salary effect, whereby people paid in Bitcoin are sent their Bitcoin and then cash out into their local currency within a day or two of receiving their salary/wages.
• Another hypothesis can be looking at Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)  into and out of Bitcoin. Algo Trading, Bots and also humans setting a specific day of the week, week number in the month and time in UTC to either buy or sell Bitcoin. As institutions and corporations invest in Bitcoin, the other aspect to consider will be quarters in the year when portfolios are rebalanced.
• I personally think both of these hypotheses will have a bigger impact going forward. Maybe we’ll see the DCA effect clearer

GBP

• I’ve limited this experiment to only GBP.
• This is an experiment currently, but so far has indeed been useful for buying and selling.
• On a rolling basis, only looking at 1 year of data:
• In 2021 the best day, week number to Buy (at lowest point) Bitcoin was on
• last week of the month
• Thursday or Saturday at 4pm or 9pm
• In 2021 the best day, week number to Sell (at highest point) Bitcoin was on
• first week of the month on Monday, Wednesday, Friday or Sunday at 1pm

Data download:

For subscribers please click on the download area for formatted data files. These should be in CSV and Excel format.

Further project for AI and Machine Learning

Over the coming year I’m hoping to make use of machine learning and or artificial intelligence to start making predictions based on previous data. This will enable Bitcoin investors to focus on specific days of the week, week number in a month and quarter for planning ahead to optimise entry and exit for Bitcoin investments. Watch this space.

Publically Available Graphs, Statistics & Metrics for Bitcoin:

These very useful and excellent charts have been created by third parties. Please take your time to become familiar with them if you are not already. I highly recommend subscribing to the authors websites and social media posts.

• Puell Multiple
• Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
• Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves/Power Law

Puell Multiple:

Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

See also:

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=indicators.PuellMultiple

https://medium.com/unconfiscatable/the-puell-multiple-bed755cfe358

https://twitter.com/cryptopoiesis

Stock-to-Flow:

Source: https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=indicators.StockToFlowRatio

See also:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD

Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves:

Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

See also:

https://twitter.com/hcburger1

https://t.co/Qi94ZDV14p

https://medium.com/quantodian-publications/bitcoins-natural-long-term-power-law-corridor-of-growth-649d0e9b3c94

Selected Products and Services:

Casa (https://keys.casa)

Something to seriously consider with Bitcoin is what would happen to your Bitcoin in the event of your death.

Alternatively, how can you securely plan your inheritance with respect to your Bitcoin holdings?

I recommend looking at and considering Casa.

From their website marketing:

“Casa Inheritance keeps your bitcoin safe, even after you pass away. Included with every Casa Diamond membership.”

https://keys.casa

Kraken OTC (https://www.kraken.com/features/otc-exchange/)

If you are considering making considerable purchases of Bitcoin, I would consider using the OTC (Over The Counter) desk at Kraken.

This would be for purchases over $100,000

I recommend looking at and considering Kraken OTC:

From their website marketing:

“Over-the-counter (OTC) trading takes place off the open Kraken exchange. We offer deeper liquidity and a private, more personalized service to institutions and high net-worth individuals needing to fill large orders that might be too disruptive if placed on open markets at the exchanges. Whether you are trading blocks of $100,000, €10,000,000 or 2,000 Bitcoin, the OTC desk will provide you with execution and settlement services that are discreet, secure and ultra-competitive.”

https://www.kraken.com/features/otc-exchange/

Google Trends:

Searches for the word “Bitcoin”

2021

Last 5 Years

Halving Countdown:

The next Bitcoin halving where the supply is cut in half is likely to be in 2024.

Please see this dashboard for further details (scroll right and left for the full dashboard)

https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

Selected Important News from 2021

1. TESLA Bought $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/28/investing/tesla-bitcoin/index.html

1. Coinbase Listed on the Nasdaq with an Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coinbase-ipo-idUSKBN2C10K7

1. China banned Bitcoin mining

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58896545

1. Bitcoin upgrade called Taproot

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/14/bitcoin-taproot-upgrade-what-it-means-for-investors.html

Conclusion

2021 was marked by the continued COVID 19 Pandemic and associated knock on effect from societal and economical lock downs. I believe the effects of this will be felt for many years to come ranging from inflation and interest rate increases, to disruption and changes for global supply chains.

At the time of writing this (March 2022) Oil has just peaked at $140 USD per barrel. There is discussion that this could become $300 USD per barrel. This can be attributed to the conflict in Ukraine by Russia. The USA is considering banning Russian oil imports. It was not that long ago when oil was negative, during the pandemic. There is open talk of nuclear conflict. How will this impact the price of Bitcoin? Only time will tell.

In terms of USD Bitcoin reached a high of $69,000 and a low of $27,678. The median Bitcoin price was $48,339.00

In terms of GBP Bitcoin reached a high of £51,000 and a low of £19,500. The median Bitcoin price was £35,250.00

2022 and beyond should see increases in the value of Bitcoin when measured against fiat currency. However, the rate of increase is likely to be reduced as Harold Christopher Burger (https://twitter.com/hcburger1) says due to diminishing returns.

In terms of safety and a place to keep capital, this is a 50/50 based on a risk management perspective. If you need access to a portable, secure, non confiscatable asset then Bitcoin is the choice.

The next newsletter will be looking at quarterly one for 2022 (Q1 January, February and March 2022).

A Lot can happen in the world of Bitcoin in 3 x months (1 x quarter), so let's see how Q1 of 2022 does in the next issue.

Thank you for reading.

Any comments or suggestions are welcome at Twitter/bbcdsatoshi

“Buy Bitcoin, you’ll thank yourself in the future”.