"You work for it"... This Bitcoin focused AI generated video sounds like a Foo Fighter/Dave Grohl song...

 

"You work for it"... This Bitcoin-focused AI-generated video sounds like a Foo Fighter/Dave Grohl song...

Bitcoin Charts to Watch (The Puell Multiple, Power Law, Pi Cycle Top Prediction/Top Indicator, Stock-to-Flow Model)

1) Bitcoin: The Puell Multiple

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/puell-multiple/

2) Bitcoin: Power Law

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-power-law/

3) Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Prediction

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

4) Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

5) Bitcoin: Stock-to-Flow Model

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

Bitcoin Power Law code in TradingView

I can't remember who posted this for the Bitcoin Power Law code. Anyway, here is the code to be used with TradingView:

***************************************************************************

// This Pine Script™ code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/

//@version=6

indicator("Power Law", overlay=true)

// Days X-Axis Value

start = time == timestamp(2010, 7, 18, 0, 0)

days = request.security('INDEX:BTCUSD', 'D', ta.barssince(start))

offset = 561 // days between 2009/1/3 and "start"

d = days + offset

a = input(-17.668, 'Power Law Intercept',group = "Power Law Settings")

b = input(5.926, 'Power Law Slope',group = "Power Law Settings")

price_power_law_0 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d))

price_power_law_1 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+1*365))

price_power_law_2 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+2*365))

price_power_law_3 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+3*365))

price_power_law_4 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+4*365))

price_power_law_5 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+5*365))

p0 = plot(price_power_law_0, color=#ffffffaa, title='Power Law',linewidth = 1)

p1 = plot(price_power_law_1, title='Power Law 1',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

p2 = plot(price_power_law_2, title='Power Law 2',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

p3 = plot(price_power_law_3, title='Power Law 3',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

p4 = plot(price_power_law_4, title='Power Law 4',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

p5 = plot(price_power_law_5, title='Power Law 5',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

***************************************************************************

Farage and Bailey = Bitcoin Strategic Reserve?

Farage is also expected to challenge Bailey over cryptocurrency. He believes the Bank is behaving like “dinosaurs” over what he has described as the “crypto-revolution” and has urged it to store bitcoin in a strategic reserve.

Source: The Times (25/09/2025)

Bitcoin Power Law (by ChatGPT 5)

1) Tell me about the Bitcoin power law. Give me example graphs:

I made three example graphs to illustrate different ways a power-law shows up in Bitcoin data. 

• Power law = a relationship where P(X ≥ x) ∝ x^{-α} for large x (heavy tails). On log–log axes a pure power law is a straight line.
• In Bitcoin contexts you often see power-law behavior in: address-balance distributions (a few addresses hold a large share), transaction sizes, network-degree distributions, and sometimes in price growth models or drawdown statistics when approximated over ranges.
• Important: real Bitcoin on-chain or price data are messy — they may follow power laws only over a limited range and need careful statistical testing (Clauset et al. methods) to claim a true power-law.

What I produced

1. Histogram of synthetic Bitcoin address balances (log–log) — shows a heavy tail.

2. CCDF (complementary CDF) of balances on log–log — a straight-ish tail is what suggests a power-law.

3. Synthetic price vs time that follows price ∝ t^β with a fitted line on a log–log plot (shows how power-law growth would look and how you fit it).

2) With the halving event for Bitcoin supply, tell me all about that. Show tables and graphs:

Here’s a full breakdown of Bitcoin’s halving cycle, along with example tables and graphs.

Key facts

• Bitcoin starts with a 50 BTC reward per block (2009).

• Every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), the block reward halves.

• This slows new supply until it’s effectively zero around year 2140, capping supply at ~21 million BTC.

• Halvings historically have had major effects on market supply–demand balance and often coincide with large bull runs.

---

Table of Halving Events (past + future)

Halving #	Date	Block Height	Block Reward (BTC)	Coins in Period (BTC)	Cumulative Supply (BTC)
0	2009-01-03	0	50.0000	50	50
1	2012-12-31	210,000	25.0000	5,250,000	5,250,050
2	2016-12-28	420,000	12.5000	2,625,000	7,875,050
3	2020-12-26	630,000	6.2500	1,312,500	9,187,550
4	2024-12-23	840,000	3.1250	656,250	9,843,800
5	2028-12-20	1,050,000	1.5625	328,125	10,171,925
6	2032-12-18	1,260,000	0.7813	164,063	10,335,988

---

Graphs

1. Block Reward Over Time (log scale) — clearly shows the halving “steps” that cut issuance in half each cycle.

2. Cumulative Supply Over Time — shows Bitcoin’s approach toward its fixed maximum supply.

3) Is the having supply event every 4 years an example of a powerlaw?

Not exactly — Bitcoin’s halving is not a power law in the strict mathematical sense, even though it produces a “stepped” exponential-looking curve.

Here’s why:

Power law definition

A power law says something scales like:

$$y \propto x^{-\alpha}$$

or in growth form:

$$y \propto x^\alpha$$

On a log–log plot, a true power law is a straight line.

Bitcoin halving pattern

• The block reward halves every fixed number of blocks (210,000), so it follows:

$$\text{Reward at halving } n = 50 \times \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n$$

• That’s exponential decay, not a power law.

• On a semi-log plot (log y vs. linear x), halvings produce a straight line.

• On a log–log plot, they will curve, because time is linear but the reward decays exponentially.

Why people sometimes confuse the two

In Bitcoin price models, you sometimes see “power-law” charts where price $\propto$ (time since launch)$^\alpha$. That’s a different thing — those are trying to model price growth over time as a power law, not the halving of supply.

So:

• Halving schedule → exponential decay (not a power law)

• Some price models → may fit a power law over certain time ranges

Here you go — two views of the same halving schedule:

1. Semi-log plot (log y vs. linear x) → straight line, showing exponential decay of block rewards.

2. Log-log plot (log y vs. log x) → curved line, meaning not a true power law.

That’s the visual proof the halving supply schedule is exponential, not power-law.

Bitcoin Power Law Line by JimSixOneEight (TradingView PineScript Indicator)

This is from https://x.com/JimSixOneEight/ (Jim618)...

**********

//@version=5

indicator("Bitcoin Power Law with 100-Day Extrapolation - @JimSixOneEight on Twitter ", overlay=true)

// Calculate days since Bitcoin genesis block (Jan 3, 2009)

days_since_genesis = (time - timestamp("UTC", 2009, 1, 3, 0, 0)) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)

// Power law formula: P(t) = 2.88 * (t / 1000)^5.82

power_law = days_since_genesis > 1 ? 2.88 * math.pow(days_since_genesis / 1000, 5.82) : 0.0

plot(power_law, title="Power Law", color=color.blue, linewidth=2)

// Extrapolate 100 days into the future

days_future = days_since_genesis + 100

power_law_future = days_future > 1 ? 2.88 * math.pow(days_future / 1000, 5.82) : 0.0

// Determine bars to extend based on timeframe

// The goal is to represent 100 days regardless of the chart's timeframe.

// We need to calculate how many bars 100 days translates to for the current timeframe.

float bars_to_future_calc = 0.0

if timeframe.isdaily

    bars_to_future_calc := 100.0

else if timeframe.isweekly

    // 100 days / 7 days/week = approx 14.28 weeks

    bars_to_future_calc := 100.0 / 7.0

else if timeframe.ismonthly

    // 100 days / (approx 30.4375 days/month) = approx 3.28 months

    // We use 30.4375 as the average number of days in a month (365.25 / 12)

    bars_to_future_calc := 100.0 / 30.4375

else

    // For any other timeframe, we default to daily calculation for now or

    // you could add more specific calculations if needed.

    // As the original code defaulted to 100, we'll keep that as a fallback if no specific timeframe matches

    // This is less ideal but maintains original logic for unhandled timeframes.

    bars_to_future_calc := 100.0 / (timeframe.multiplier * (timeframe.isintraday ? 1.0 : 1.0 )) // This line needs more thought for truly general case beyond D, W, M.

    // For this specific 100-day extrapolation, we need to convert 100 days into the current chart's bar duration.

    // The simplest way for non-standard timeframes (beyond D, W, M) is to estimate.

    // Let's refine for a more general approach by calculating days per bar:

    float ms_per_bar = timeframe.in_seconds() * 1000.0

    float days_per_bar = ms_per_bar / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)

    if days_per_bar > 0

        bars_to_future_calc := 100.0 / days_per_bar

    else

        bars_to_future_calc := 100.0 // Fallback if days_per_bar is zero (shouldn't happen for valid timeframes)

// Draw extrapolation line on the last bar

var line future_line = na

// We want to update the line only on the last bar of the chart.

// The `barstate.islast` variable is the most robust way to do this.

if barstate.islast

    line.delete(future_line) // Delete the previous line to redraw

    future_bar_index = bar_index + math.round(bars_to_future_calc)

    future_line := line.new(bar_index, power_law, future_bar_index, power_law_future, color=color.green, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)

// Remarks:

// - Calculates Bitcoin price using power law model: P(t) = 2.88 * (t/1000)^5.82, where t is days since Jan 3, 2009.

// - Plots a blue line for the power law and a dashed green line for 100-day extrapolation.

// - Supports daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes by adjusting bar counts for extrapolation.

// - Uses 'barstate.islast' to ensure the extrapolation line is drawn and updated only on the most recent bar.

**********

Bitcoin Power Law Divergence Banana Zone (%) by JimSixOneEight (TradingView PineScript Indicator) Jim618

This is from https://x.com/JimSixOneEight/ (Jim618)... kudos!

**********

//@version=6

indicator("Bitcoin Power Law Divergence Banana Zone (%)", overlay=false)

//Bitcoin Power Law Divergence - JIM SIX ONE EIGHT - FREE, OPEN SOURCE, Just link to : https://x.com/JimSixOneEight

days_since_genesis = (time - timestamp("UTC", 2009, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0)) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)

power_law = 0.0

if days_since_genesis > 1

    power_law := 2.88 * math.pow(days_since_genesis / 1000, 5.82)

divergence_percent = 0.0

if close > 0

    divergence_percent := ((close - power_law) / close) * 100

plot(divergence_percent, "Price Divergence (%)", color.purple, 2)

hline(0, "Zero Line", color.gray, hline.style_dashed)

// Define transparent colors for background fills

// Transparency is the 4th parameter (0-255, where 0 is fully transparent, 255 is fully opaque)

color_bg_red_60_80 = color.rgb(255, 100, 100, 50) // Light red for 60-80% band

color_bg_red_80_100 = color.rgb(200, 0, 0, 50)   // Medium red for 80-100% band

color_bg_red_above_100 = color.rgb(150, 0, 0, 50) // Dark red for above 100%

color_bg_green_60_80 = color.rgb(100, 255, 100, 50) // Light green for -60 to -80% band

color_bg_green_80_100 = color.rgb(0, 200, 0, 50)   // Medium green for -80 to -100% band

color_bg_green_below_100 = color.rgb(0, 150, 0, 50) // Dark green for below -100%

// Plot horizontal lines and store their IDs for filling

id_h60 = hline(60, "+60% Line", color.rgb(255, 50, 50), hline.style_solid)

id_h80 = hline(80, "+80% Line", color.rgb(200, 0, 0), hline.style_solid)

id_h100 = hline(100, "+100% Line", color.rgb(150, 0, 0), hline.style_solid)

id_h_top = hline(150, "", color.new(na, 100), display=display.none) // An invisible upper boundary for the top fill

id_h_minus60 = hline(-60, "-60% Line", color.rgb(50, 255, 50), hline.style_solid)

id_h_minus80 = hline(-80, "-80% Line", color.rgb(0, 200, 0), hline.style_solid)

id_h_minus100 = hline(-100, "-100% Line", color.rgb(0, 150, 0), hline.style_solid)

id_h_bottom = hline(-150, "", color.new(na, 100), display=display.none) // An invisible lower boundary for the bottom fill

// Fill between the fixed horizontal lines

// Positive zones

fill(id_h60, id_h80, color=color_bg_red_60_80, title="Fill 60-80%")

fill(id_h80, id_h100, color=color_bg_red_80_100, title="Fill 80-100%")

fill(id_h100, id_h_top, color=color_bg_red_above_100, title="Fill >100%") // Fill from 100% up to an arbitrary high point

// Negative zones

fill(id_h_minus60, id_h_minus80, color=color_bg_green_60_80, title="Fill -60 to -80%")

fill(id_h_minus80, id_h_minus100, color=color_bg_green_80_100, title="Fill -80 to -100%")

fill(id_h_minus100, id_h_bottom, color=color_bg_green_below_100, title="Fill <-100%") // Fill from -100% down to an arbitrary low point

**********

Too Big to HODL? The Hidden Risks of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet. Is MicroStrategy Bitcoin’s Next FTX?

The original tweet is this...

“Can’t put my finger on it, but I’ve got a feeling Michael Saylor’s and MicroStrategy are introducing a level of risk for the Bitcoin ecosystem in a similar way that Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX did... Hope I’m wrong.”

I then asked ChatGPT to create a blog post based on the above tweet...

At first glance, comparing MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor to Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX may sound alarmist, even conspiratorial. Saylor has been one of the most vocal and consistent proponents of Bitcoin since MicroStrategy began its aggressive BTC buying spree in August 2020. He has made regular public appearances championing Bitcoin as “digital energy” and a “technological imperative.” Unlike the tangled mess of fraud and mismanagement uncovered at FTX, MicroStrategy’s operations appear clean, and its holdings are transparent.

Yet, the concern doesn’t stem from fraud, at least not yet. It stems from something far subtler and more dangerous: concentration risk, leverage, and the potential for unintended contagion. As the Bitcoin ecosystem grows, it's important to recognise that new systemic risks don’t always emerge from malevolence. Sometimes, they grow from overconfidence, hero worship, and too much leverage in the hands of too few.

Let’s break it down.

MicroStrategy: A Corporate Bitcoin Whale

MicroStrategy, a publicly traded business intelligence company, started accumulating Bitcoin in August 2020 under the leadership of Michael Saylor. By June 2025, the company will have amassed over 226,331 BTC worth more than $15 billion at current prices.

To put that in perspective:

• MicroStrategy holds more Bitcoin than any ETF, any single publicly listed company, and possibly any private entity aside from some early miners or Satoshi Nakamoto himself.

• Its holdings represent over 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, and a significantly higher share of the circulating supply available on exchanges.

These figures alone introduce a form of single-entity exposure that no one anticipated during Bitcoin’s early days. Bitcoin was supposed to be decentralised, censorship-resistant, and robust against any single point of failure. But when one entity controls such a significant percentage of the asset and does so in a leveraged, debt-financed way, it’s worth asking: what happens if they fail?

Leverage: The Ghost of FTX

MicroStrategy has used a mix of convertible bonds, secured loans, and stock sales to finance its Bitcoin purchases. Notably:

• In 2021, MicroStrategy raised $1.05 billion through convertible notes at a 0% interest rate to buy Bitcoin. (SEC filing)

• In 2022, they took out a $205 million loan from Silvergate Bank (yes, that Silvergate) using Bitcoin as collateral.

• In 2024, they began selling shares to raise capital to buy more Bitcoin, effectively tying shareholder equity to Bitcoin price performance.

The concern here isn’t that MicroStrategy will rug pull its Bitcoin or engage in fraud. It’s that it has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin that could trigger volatility if things go south.

Sound familiar? This is similar to what FTX did, albeit with far less transparency and outright fraud. FTX, through Alameda Research, became a concentrated node of risk. When FTX collapsed, it sent cascading ripples through the entire crypto market, affecting retail investors, institutional funds, and even regulated firms like BlockFi and Genesis.

Now imagine MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate a substantial portion of its Bitcoin to meet margin calls or debt obligations. That sale could:

• Send shockwaves through the market.

• Damage investor confidence.

• Create the perception (even if unfair) that Bitcoin itself is risky or unstable.

The parallels may be uncomfortable, but they’re real.

Hero Worship and the Saylor Doctrine

One of the key cultural problems that enabled the FTX debacle was the cult of personality around Sam Bankman-Fried. He was seen as a genius, a philanthropist, a regulator-whisperer who could do no wrong, until it all came crashing down.

Michael Saylor has earned his followers differently, through consistent messaging and big bets. But the end result is similar: a significant segment of the crypto community now sees him as a prophet rather than a CEO. That creates blind spots.

MicroStrategy is not a decentralised protocol. It is a company with obligations to shareholders, debt holders, and regulators. It can fail. And if it fails, it will not be just Saylor that pays the price, Bitcoin’s reputation and price could also suffer, even if only temporarily.

Liquidity and Exit Risk

Unlike most Bitcoin hodlers, MicroStrategy has the legal ability to sell BTC at any time to meet financial obligations. If bondholders or creditors begin to doubt MicroStrategy’s solvency, or if equity markets turn hostile, the firm may be forced to sell Bitcoin. Even a modest sale by MicroStrategy could have outsized effects, not just on price but on market psychology.

Again, the comparison to FTX is instructive. Alameda and FTX were tied together in a feedback loop of confidence and collateral. When one faltered, the other collapsed. MicroStrategy isn’t doing anything nefarious, but its fate is increasingly tied to Bitcoin’s price and Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by MicroStrategy’s behaviour. That’s a dangerous loop.

Regulatory Blowback

Let’s not forget the regulatory angle. The SEC and other global regulators have recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, ostensibly “de-risking” access to BTC for institutional investors. But if MicroStrategy an SEC-regulated public company starts experiencing financial strain due to its Bitcoin exposure, it could draw regulatory scrutiny on BTC as an asset class.

Consider what happened post-FTX: Congress rushed in with multiple bills, the SEC launched lawsuits, and regulatory uncertainty increased. A high-profile Bitcoin-centred implosion could reintroduce political risk into an ecosystem that’s just beginning to gain mainstream traction.

So, Is MicroStrategy the Next FTX?

No. But also... maybe.

To be clear: MicroStrategy has not committed fraud. It has disclosed its holdings transparently. Its accounting, while unusual, is open to public scrutiny. And Michael Saylor has never made promises he hasn’t backed with action.

But what makes systemic risk systemic is interdependence, confidence, and leverage not just bad intentions.

In the 2008 financial crisis, Lehman Brothers didn’t collapse because it was uniquely corrupt. It collapsed because it was too leveraged, too opaque, and too deeply embedded into the financial system. Its fall triggered panic, because the system had come to rely on its stability. The same was true with FTX.

Bitcoin’s entire value proposition rests on trustless, decentralised finance. But we must recognise when centralised actors become so large, so influential, and so intertwined with the asset’s perception that their collapse could hurt the broader ecosystem.

Conclusion: Hope I’m Wrong

This post isn’t a hit piece. It’s a warning not of Saylor’s malice, but of Bitcoin’s creeping fragility as it becomes increasingly financialised.

Bitcoin survived Mt. Gox. It survived China’s mining ban. It survived the collapse of FTX. But each crisis reshaped the ecosystem.

If MicroStrategy’s strategy fails or even stumbles it may not bring Bitcoin down with it. But it could inflict temporary damage to price, investor sentiment, and global regulatory posture.

Michael Saylor may not be Sam Bankman-Fried. But we shouldn’t need another FTX to remind us that hero worship, leverage, and centralisation are antithetical to the very ethos Bitcoin was built on.

Let’s just hope we’re wrong.

Sources and Further Reading:

• MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings: https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations/bitcoin

• SEC Filing on Convertible Notes: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312521045739/d126945d424b5.htm

• FTX Collapse Explained (CoinDesk): https://www.coindesk.com/learn/ftx-collapse-explained/

• Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin is Digital Energy” Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Yjf8h4Q9Y

• Analysis of MicroStrategy’s Leverage (Lyn Alden): https://www.lynalden.com/microstrategy-bitcoin/

Nigel Farage + Bitcoin = The Way

Nigel Farage mentioned in the book "Buy Bitcoin, You'll Thank Yourself In The Future: A book about Bitcoin"

Nigel Farage + Bitcoin = The Way

Download the book now:

• Apple, Kobo, etc click here
• Amazon click here

BIG NEWS: BlackRock Launches Bitcoin ETP in Europe Following USA Success

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETP will be listed on:

a) Euronext Paris and Xetra under the "IB1T" ticker

b) On Euronext Amsterdam under "BTCN" today

For obvious reasons, this is BIG news!

Source:

The Block News

https://www.theblock.co/post/347923/blackrock-europe-bitcoin-etp

Bitcoin Futures and Options: How can options and or futures for Bitcoin be used to drive down the price of Bitcoin, with the intention of buying Bitcoin at a lower price knowing Bitcoin in the future will be much higher in value?

Using Bitcoin options and futures to drive down the price and accumulate BTC at lower levels is a strategy often employed by large institutional players, hedge funds, and whales. Here’s how this could be done:

[Bogdanoff driving prices down for the future :-)]

1. Using Bitcoin Futures to Push the Price Down

Bitcoin futures allow traders to take leveraged short positions, meaning they can profit from a price drop. Here’s how this can be used to suppress BTC price:

Step-by-Step Manipulative Strategy Using Futures:

1. Open Large Short Positions:

   • A trader (or coordinated group) opens a massive short position on Bitcoin using Bitcoin futures contracts on exchanges like CME, Binance, or Deribit.
   • This creates an impression of bearish sentiment and increases selling pressure.

2. Sell Spot Bitcoin Aggressively:

   • At the same time, the trader sells a large amount of Bitcoin in the spot market, causing a short-term price drop.
   • Since BTC markets are highly liquid but still relatively small compared to traditional markets, a large sell order can trigger cascading liquidations.

3. Trigger Liquidations (Short Cascade Attack):

   • Many traders use leveraged long positions. If the price drops suddenly, it triggers margin calls and liquidations, causing the price to drop further.
   • This reinforces the downward momentum and may lead to panic selling.

4. Use Media & FUD to Amplify Fear:

   • Institutions or whales may spread negative news (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to further drive panic selling.
   • News about regulations, exchange hacks, or bans can trigger emotional reactions, increasing selling pressure.

5. Close the Short Position at a Profit & Accumulate Spot Bitcoin Cheaply:

   • Once the price has dropped significantly, the trader closes the short positions at a profit.
   • They then start accumulating BTC at lower prices in the spot market before the next bullish cycle.

2. Using Bitcoin Options to Suppress Price

Bitcoin options provide a way to influence market sentiment and cause price suppression. Here’s how:

Step-by-Step Strategy Using Options:

1. Buy Large Amounts of Put Options:

   • The trader buys a significant amount of put options (which profit when Bitcoin falls).
   • Large put buying can signal to the market that a big player is betting on a price drop, causing others to sell.

2. Short Sell in Spot & Futures Market:

   • Simultaneously, they sell BTC in the spot market and open short futures positions to force a decline.
   • If the price drops, put options increase in value, generating profits.

3. Gamma Squeeze & Options Market Impact:

   • Market makers who sold the put options need to hedge their risk by shorting Bitcoin, increasing selling pressure.
   • If Bitcoin price nears a critical option strike level, market makers may further sell BTC to remain hedged, reinforcing the decline.

4. Close Put Options & Buy BTC at Lower Prices:

   • Once Bitcoin reaches the target lower level, the trader sells their put options for profit.
   • Then, they start accumulating Bitcoin at a discount before the price recovers.

Real-World Example:

1. CME Bitcoin Futures Expirations:
   • Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to decline before CME Bitcoin futures contract expirations. This is often attributed to large players manipulating the market to profit from shorts before expiration.
2. May 2021 & November 2022 Crashes:
   • Institutions took advantage of negative sentiment (China mining bans, FTX collapse, interest rate hikes) to short BTC aggressively.
   • Once liquidations happened, they bought back BTC at lower prices before the next rally.

Conclusion:

By strategically using futures and options, sophisticated traders can temporarily suppress Bitcoin’s price, profit from the downturn, and then buy BTC at lower levels. This requires large capital, leverage, and market influence, but similar tactics have been observed repeatedly in Bitcoin’s history.

***************

Source: ChatGPT

Bitcoin Power Law Code for TradingView (Pine Editor Pinescript) by @apsk32

Step 1: Copy/paste this code into the Pine Editor window and click save.

//

@version

=6 indicator("Power Law", overlay=true) // Days X-Axis Value start = time == timestamp(2010, 7, 18, 0, 0) days = http://request.security('INDEX:BTCUSD', 'D', ta.barssince(start)) offset = 561 // days between 2009/1/3 and "start" d = days + offset a = input(-17.668, 'Power Law Intercept',group = "Power Law Settings") b = input(5.926, 'Power Law Slope',group = "Power Law Settings") price_power_law_0 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d)) price_power_law_1 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+1*365)) price_power_law_2 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+2*365)) price_power_law_3 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+3*365)) price_power_law_4 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+4*365)) price_power_law_5 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+5*365)) p0 = plot(price_power_law_0, color=#ffffffaa, title='Power Law',linewidth = 1) p1 = plot(price_power_law_1, title='Power Law 1',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p2 = plot(price_power_law_2, title='Power Law 2',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p3 = plot(price_power_law_3, title='Power Law 3',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p4 = plot(price_power_law_4, title='Power Law 4',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000) p5 = plot(price_power_law_5, title='Power Law 5',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)

Step 2: Go to "Indicators" "Personal" and select the "Power Law" script. The years ahead metric should now be displayed.

************************************************

Credit: 

• All goes to APSK32 on X/Twitter. 
• The original post is https://x.com/apsk32/status/1891203202017644943

Will the USA Establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026? Analysing the Prospects

The idea of governments incorporating cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into their fiscal strategies is becoming less far-fetched. However, the notion that the United States might announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) by 2026 remains highly speculative and is mired in economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties. Here’s a deeper dive into the feasibility of such a development.

Understanding the Concept of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would mean that the federal government, much like with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, holds a stockpile of Bitcoin as part of its national treasury assets. This could serve multiple purposes: hedging against financial crises, bolstering the dollar's position by diversifying reserves, or even as a strategic asset in trade negotiations. But the path to such an initiative is fraught with hurdles.

Economic and Regulatory Challenges

The volatile nature of Bitcoin poses a significant risk for any government considering its reserve status. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are notorious, and its valuation can swing wildly based on market sentiment, regulatory news, and technological developments. For a conservative entity like a national government, these characteristics make Bitcoin a risky reserve asset.

Moreover, regulatory frameworks in the USA are still catching up with the fast-paced evolution of cryptocurrencies. Issues surrounding tax implications, anti-money laundering (AML) standards, and consumer protection are still being debated. Establishing a reserve would require robust legal frameworks that are currently lacking.

Political Landscape

The political environment regarding cryptocurrencies in the USA is complex and varied. While some lawmakers advocate for progressive cryptocurrency regulations and promote innovation in blockchain technologies, others are staunchly opposed, citing financial risks and potential misuse for illicit activities. This division makes it difficult to achieve the consensus needed to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.

Public Perception and Institutional Readiness

Public trust in Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency technologies is mixed. While there is significant interest and investment from the private sector, the general population remains skeptical about the stability and utility of cryptocurrencies. Without broad public support, a move as bold as establishing a Bitcoin reserve could be politically unviable.

Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department would also need to significantly adapt their operations to manage a Bitcoin reserve. This includes developing new tools for risk assessment, market intervention, and asset management specific to cryptocurrencies.

Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond

Predicting a strategic move such as establishing a Bitcoin reserve by 2026 is challenging. It would require a dramatic shift in regulatory posture, economic strategy, and political will, all within a relatively short timeframe. Given the current landscape, it appears unlikely that the United States will announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026. However, as with all things crypto, the unexpected can always happen.

As stakeholders in the financial world continue to watch the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in global economics, the discussion about its potential integration into national reserves remains a topic of hot debate and speculation. Whether or not the USA takes a monumental step towards such an integration by 2026 remains to be seen, but what is certain is that the conversation isn’t going away anytime soon.