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Tuesday, March 25, 2025
Friday, March 14, 2025
Bitcoin Futures and Options: How can options and or futures for Bitcoin be used to drive down the price of Bitcoin, with the intention of buying Bitcoin at a lower price knowing Bitcoin in the future will be much higher in value?
Using Bitcoin options and futures to drive down the price and accumulate BTC at lower levels is a strategy often employed by large institutional players, hedge funds, and whales. Here’s how this could be done:
[Bogdanoff driving prices down for the future :-)]
1. Using Bitcoin Futures to Push the Price Down
Bitcoin futures allow traders to take leveraged short positions, meaning they can profit from a price drop. Here’s how this can be used to suppress BTC price:
Step-by-Step Manipulative Strategy Using Futures:
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Open Large Short Positions:
- A trader (or coordinated group) opens a massive short position on Bitcoin using Bitcoin futures contracts on exchanges like CME, Binance, or Deribit.
- This creates an impression of bearish sentiment and increases selling pressure.
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Sell Spot Bitcoin Aggressively:
- At the same time, the trader sells a large amount of Bitcoin in the spot market, causing a short-term price drop.
- Since BTC markets are highly liquid but still relatively small compared to traditional markets, a large sell order can trigger cascading liquidations.
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Trigger Liquidations (Short Cascade Attack):
- Many traders use leveraged long positions. If the price drops suddenly, it triggers margin calls and liquidations, causing the price to drop further.
- This reinforces the downward momentum and may lead to panic selling.
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Use Media & FUD to Amplify Fear:
- Institutions or whales may spread negative news (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to further drive panic selling.
- News about regulations, exchange hacks, or bans can trigger emotional reactions, increasing selling pressure.
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Close the Short Position at a Profit & Accumulate Spot Bitcoin Cheaply:
- Once the price has dropped significantly, the trader closes the short positions at a profit.
- They then start accumulating BTC at lower prices in the spot market before the next bullish cycle.
2. Using Bitcoin Options to Suppress Price
Bitcoin options provide a way to influence market sentiment and cause price suppression. Here’s how:
Step-by-Step Strategy Using Options:
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Buy Large Amounts of Put Options:
- The trader buys a significant amount of put options (which profit when Bitcoin falls).
- Large put buying can signal to the market that a big player is betting on a price drop, causing others to sell.
-
Short Sell in Spot & Futures Market:
- Simultaneously, they sell BTC in the spot market and open short futures positions to force a decline.
- If the price drops, put options increase in value, generating profits.
-
Gamma Squeeze & Options Market Impact:
- Market makers who sold the put options need to hedge their risk by shorting Bitcoin, increasing selling pressure.
- If Bitcoin price nears a critical option strike level, market makers may further sell BTC to remain hedged, reinforcing the decline.
-
Close Put Options & Buy BTC at Lower Prices:
- Once Bitcoin reaches the target lower level, the trader sells their put options for profit.
- Then, they start accumulating Bitcoin at a discount before the price recovers.
Real-World Example:
- CME Bitcoin Futures Expirations:
- Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to decline before CME Bitcoin futures contract expirations. This is often attributed to large players manipulating the market to profit from shorts before expiration.
- May 2021 & November 2022 Crashes:
- Institutions took advantage of negative sentiment (China mining bans, FTX collapse, interest rate hikes) to short BTC aggressively.
- Once liquidations happened, they bought back BTC at lower prices before the next rally.
Conclusion:
By strategically using futures and options, sophisticated traders can temporarily suppress Bitcoin’s price, profit from the downturn, and then buy BTC at lower levels. This requires large capital, leverage, and market influence, but similar tactics have been observed repeatedly in Bitcoin’s history.
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Source: ChatGPT
Tuesday, March 4, 2025
Bitcoin Power Law Code for TradingView (Pine Editor Pinescript) by @apsk32
Step 1: Copy/paste this code into the Pine Editor window and click save.
//@version
=6
indicator("Power Law", overlay=true)
// Days X-Axis Value
start = time == timestamp(2010, 7, 18, 0, 0)
days = request.security('INDEX:BTCUSD', 'D', ta.barssince(start))
offset = 561 // days between 2009/1/3 and "start"
d = days + offset
a = input(-17.668, 'Power Law Intercept',group = "Power Law Settings")
b = input(5.926, 'Power Law Slope',group = "Power Law Settings")
price_power_law_0 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d))
price_power_law_1 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+1*365))
price_power_law_2 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+2*365))
price_power_law_3 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+3*365))
price_power_law_4 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+4*365))
price_power_law_5 = math.pow(10, a + b * math.log10(d+5*365))
p0 = plot(price_power_law_0, color=#ffffffaa, title='Power Law',linewidth = 1)
p1 = plot(price_power_law_1, title='Power Law 1',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p2 = plot(price_power_law_2, title='Power Law 2',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p3 = plot(price_power_law_3, title='Power Law 3',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p4 = plot(price_power_law_4, title='Power Law 4',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)
p5 = plot(price_power_law_5, title='Power Law 5',linewidth = 1, color=bar_index % 2 == 0 ? #ffffffaa : #00000000)Step 2: Go to "Indicators" "Personal" and select the "Power Law" script. The years ahead metric should now be displayed.
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Credit:
- All goes to APSK32 on X/Twitter.
- The original post is https://x.com/apsk32/status/1891203202017644943
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