Saturday, August 24, 2024

Was Mike Lynch Satoshi Nakamoto?

The more you look into his background the more you realise he has all the qualities and abilities... Autonomy, HP, DarkTrace, 3 letter agencies...

Mike Lynch OBE FREng FRS
Mike Lynch is a celebrated technologist, entrepreneur and investor. Having pioneered some of the biggest success stories in UK tech, including Autonomy and Blinkx, Mike is regarded as one of Britain's most established technology entrepreneurs. Mike Lynch read Natural Sciences at Cambridge University, where he also gained a Ph.D. and held a research fellowship in adaptive pattern recognition. In the late 1980s he founded his first company, Lynett Systems, before founding Autonomy in 1996. Mike served as CEO of Autonomy for 15 years, during which time it became one of the UK's most successful technology companies on the FTSE100. It was acquired by HP for $11 billion in 2011.

In 2012, Mike Lynch founded Invoke Capital to create, invest in and support world-leading fundamental technology businesses within Europe. Portfolio companies include the world-leader in cyber AI, Darktrace, which employs more than 1,500 people globally, Featurespace, the most advanced platform for fraud and financial crime management, Luminance, a leading artificial intelligence platform which supports over 300 organisations globally, and most recently Hearable, an AI-driven mobile application for people with hearing loss.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-mike-lynch/
Mike Lynch OBE FREng FRS has worked on fundamental methods in the field of AI since the 1980s, during which time he has commercialised AI research on multiple occasions. With a Ph.D. in adaptive pattern recognition from Cambridge University, Mike Lynch has pioneered several of the UK’s leading technology companies, including Autonomy, Blinkx and Darktrace. He founded Autonomy in 1996 and served as CEO for fifteen years, during which time it became one of the UK's most successful tech companies on the FTSE 100. Autonomy was acquired by HP for $11 billion in 2011.

Mike Lynch founded Invoke Capital in 2012 to invest in and support world-leading fundamental technology businesses emerging across Europe. Since then, Invoke has been instrumental in developing and scaling prominent UK tech companies from innovative start-ups out of Cambridge University into global businesses, with portfolio businesses including Darktrace, Luminance and Featurespace.
Mike was awarded an OBE for Services to Enterprise in 2006 and was elected to the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology in 2011. As well as being a fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering and an honorary fellow of Christ's College Cambridge, Mike was also elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2014 and a Trustee of the National Endowment for Science Technology and the Arts in 2010.

Invoke Capital
2012 - Present · 12 yrs 8 mos2012 to Present · 12 yrs 8 mos
Invoke is a very different type of technology investor. Invoke focuses on identifying world-leading technology emerging across Europe through the private sector and university channels. To date, Invoke has invested in Darktrace, Luminance, Sophia Genetics, Featurespace and NeurenceInvoke is a very different type of technology investor. Invoke focuses on identifying world-leading technology emerging across Europe through the private sector and university channels. To date, Invoke has invested in Darktrace, Luminance, Sophia Genetics, Featurespace and Neurence

Neurence
2013 - Present · 11 yrs 8 mos2013 to Present · 11 yrs 8 mos
Neurence is a software platform designed to power connected devices by harnessing advanced machine learning and pattern recognition. Taggar is the world's first mobile application to be built upon the Neurence platform and was released in December 2013. 
Neurence is a software platform designed to power connected devices by harnessing advanced machine learning and pattern recognition. Taggar is the world's first mobile application to be built upon the Neurence platform and was released in December 2013. 

Luminance
Sep 2016 - Feb 2022 · 5 yrs 6 mosSep 2016 to Feb 2022 · 5 yrs 6 mos
Luminance is an AI platform for the legal industry, harnessing the latest advances in machine learning and pattern recognition technology to improve the efficiency of processes such as contract negotiation, due diligence, compliance reviews and e-discovery.Luminance is an AI platform for the legal industry, harnessing the latest advances in machine learning and pattern recognition technology to improve the efficiency of processes such as contract negotiation, due diligence, compliance reviews and e-discovery.
Member of the Science and Technology CommitteeMember of the Science and Technology Committee

Darktrace
2013 - 2022 · 9 yrs2013 to 2022 · 9 yrs
Darktrace is the world’s leading cyber AI company and the creator of Autonomous Response technology. Its self-learning AI is modeled on the human immune system and used by over 8,000 customers in 110 countries to protect against threats to the cloud, email, IoT, networks and industrial systems. The company has over 2,000 employees and 30 global offices.Darktrace is the world’s leading cyber AI company and the creator of Autonomous Response technology. Its self-learning AI is modeled on the human immune system and used by over 8,000 customers in 110 countries to protect against threats to the cloud, email, IoT, networks and industrial systems. The company has over 2,000 employees and 30 global offices.

Autonomy
1996 - 2011 · 15 yrs1996 to 2011 · 15 yrs
Mike founded Autonomy in 1996, the UK’s largest software company at the time, member of the FTSE 100 with a market capitalisation of $11bn, and was its CEO for fifteen years until it was acquired by Hewlett Packard in 2011.Mike founded Autonomy in 1996, the UK’s largest software company at the time, member of the FTSE 100 with a market capitalisation of $11bn, and was its CEO for fifteen years until it was acquired by Hewlett Packard in 2011.

Bridges Ventures
2007 - 2010 · 3 yrs


Steve Chamberlain

Steve Chamberlain
C-level executive with proven track record
Greater Cambridge Area

Career Break
Jun 2023 - Present · 1 yr 3 mos
San Francisco, California

Acquitted in June 2024 and now looking to help growing companies achieve their goals. I have acquired 20 years of experience in finance and operations working on IPO, M&A, fundraising and integrations. Defendant in Silicon Valleys largest fraud case. Operated as full time member of legal team and worked tirelessly to prove my innocence. Acquitted in June 2024 and now looking to help growing companies achieve their goals. I have acquired 20 years of experience in finance and operations working on IPO, M&A, fundraising and integrations. 

Chief Operating Officer
Darktrace · Full-time
Apr 2016 - Jun 2023
Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
Joined as CFO.
Transferred to COO until Sept 2020.
On administrative leave until June 2023.
Part of the leadership team that took the business from $200m valuation to successful float at $3-4billion: 

Sepura plc
4 yrs 2 months
Director of Integration
Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 · 4 mos
Cambridge, United Kingdom
CFO
Mar 2012 - Jan 2016 · 3 yrs 11 mos

VP FinanceVP Finance
Autonomy
Aug 2005 - Mar 2012 · 6 yrs 8 mos
Financial Controller

Care Principles Limited
Feb 2004 - Aug 2005 · 1 yr 7 mos

Senior Audit Manager
Deloitte
1998 - 2004 · 6 yrs1998 to 2004 · 6 yrs

Audit Senior
BDO Stoy Hayward
1994 - 1998 · 4 yrs


After the Autonomy sale, in 2013, Lynch cofounded Darktrace, a cybersecurity firm which hired former high-ranking MI5 agents for senior positions. He made Chamberlain his chief financial officer in 2016. Given the series of unlikely events that has since befallen the pair, it is ironic that Lynch’s specialism was probability. His yacht, the Bayesian, was named after Thomas Bayes, the 18th-century mathematician and Presbyterian minister whose work revolutionised our understanding of predictions.

The scenario is so terrible, tragic and unlikely that nobody would dare dream it up. In the early hours of Monday, the tech tycoon Mike Lynch and the guests on his yacht, the Bayesian, would have been reeling from an awful shock. 

Lynch, 59, was on a lavish Mediterranean holiday with his family and defence team to celebrate his remarkable acquittal on fraud charges in the US after an over decade-long battle.

But on Saturday, Lynch’s co-defendant in the case, Stephen Chamberlain, was killed after being hit by a car while out jogging near his home in Cambridgeshire. The mood onboard must have been sombre on Monday morning when a tornado over water, known as a waterspout, struck the vessel as it was moored off the coast of Sicily.

At the time of writing, 15 of the guests and crew have been rescued. But six bodies – including that of Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter – have been recovered. The dead are believed to include: chef Recaldo Thomas, Lynch’s lawyer Christopher Morvillo, and Jonathan Bloomer, the chair of Morgan Stanley International and Hiscox insurance, who had been a key defence witness in Lynch’s case.

According to experts, the chances of a yacht like the 184-foot Bayesian sinking while at anchor are minimal.

“I’ve been speaking to a lot [of people] in the industry today and they are as shocked as me – enough to disbelieve that this could happen,” Stewart Campbell, editor-in-chief of Boat International, told BBC’s Newsnight.

Given the improbability of these two fatal accidents happening barely two days apart, it is perhaps no surprise that conspiracy theories began to swirl almost immediately afterwards.

Superyachts and billionaires are always fertile ground for speculation, even before an accident like the one that befell Lynch and his guests. The facts in this case make for a truly extraordinary set of coincidences, with added large corporate interests, a defeated US Justice Department and connections to intelligence agencies.

Fed such potent fuel, internet forums – in particular Reddit and X (formerly known as Twitter) – have exploded with conspiracy theories. Have the victims been bumped off by disgruntled US Justice officials? Shadowy corporate actors? Spooks? The Italian authorities have reportedly launched an investigation into whether portholes being left open might have contributed to the rapid sinking. As one Reddit user asserted, it’s the kind of case that “makes you question reality”.

Lynch, a British-born Irish entrepreneur with an academic background in probability theorems, was best known as a co-founder of Autonomy, a software company – Chamberlain was vice president of finance. In 2011, the firm was sold to the American computer giant Hewlett-Packard (HP) for $11 billion, netting Lynch hundreds of millions of pounds in the process. Forbes has put his personal wealth at over $1 billion. 

But the deal was dogged from the start by accusations of foul play – HP accused Autonomy of artificially inflating its profits ahead of the sale. A year later, the firm wrote off billions of pounds worth of value from the deal. HP brought civil charges before the US Justice Department got involved. The odds were stacked against Lynch and Chamberlain. Fewer than one in 200 of such cases end in acquittal.
Speaking just before the trip about the moment of acquittal, Mr Morvillo, a partner at the law firm Clifford Chance, said, “Our side of the courtroom erupted, it was this electric moment. I’ve never seen anything like it in a courtroom before.”

For Lynch, who had been extradited to the US for trial and faced up to 25 years in prison, the verdict was akin to a rebirth. In an interview, he told The Times, “I’d had to say goodbye to everything and everyone, because I didn’t know if I’d be coming back.

“It’s bizarre, but now you have a second life,” he added. “The question is, what do you want to do with it?”

Elsewhere, he criticised the US system, saying that the only reason he was free was because he was able to spend more than $30 million fighting his case. 

“The reason I’m sitting here, let’s be honest, is not only because I was innocent,” he said. “But because I had enough money not to be swept away by a process that’s set up to sweep you away.”

After the Autonomy sale, in 2013, Lynch cofounded Darktrace, a cybersecurity firm which hired former high-ranking MI5 agents for senior positions. He made Chamberlain his chief financial officer in 2016.
Given the series of unlikely events that has since befallen the pair, it is ironic that Lynch’s specialism was probability. His yacht, the Bayesian, was named after Thomas Bayes, the 18th-century mathematician and Presbyterian minister whose work revolutionised our understanding of predictions.

Bayes was famed for his mathematical formula, known as Bayes theorem, which calculates “Conditional Probability” – determining how likely something is to happen given a particular scenario. It is used in medical testing to calculate your chance of dying from cancer at a given age, and in finance, to weigh the risk of lending money to potential borrowers. 

Social media was awash with comments picking out the link between the principle and the seeming improbability that Lynch and his co-defendant could be struck by disaster two days and some 1,800 miles apart.

“Stunned by likely loss of Mike Lynch – two months after acquittal after 10 years legal threat,” said one person on X. “A reference to Bayes theorem on probability [too] … how ironic [a] huge yacht sinks from tornado strike – so unlikely.”

Sander van der Linden, a professor of social psychology at the University of Cambridge who studies conspiracy theories, says the case is a classic example of how conspiratorial thinking can arise. 
“The brain’s always trying to connect the dots,” he says. “It’s hard for people to deal with random coincidences, however unlikely they are.” 

Van der Linden adds that the internet and social media have led to an explosion of conspiracy theories, giving rise to legions of amateur sleuths who question the official version of events. In some cases they even start trying to investigate the case themselves. 

“Social media allows for this kind of online sleuthing where people are finding their own stories and sharing with other people, which creates this vortex of unverified rumours,” he says. “That aspect is new. Ideally there should be no information void, because that’s where people start concocting their own explanations.” 

In the instant-reaction online cauldron, any gap in the official version of events is likely to be seized on and subjected to wild interpretations. Missing people inspire particular speculation. When Nicola Bulley, a mother of two, went missing on a walk in Lancashire in January 2023, the online theorising became so frenzied that amateurs turned up to do their own investigations. The recent riots across the country began in part because conspiracy theorists speculated about the identity of the Southport killer. The deaths of two Boeing whistleblowers, just months apart, has also prompted wild speculation. 

The Lynch case has clearly inspired similar conjecture and added to a canon of conspiracies linked to other incidents at sea, in particular. The mysterious death of the wealthy and powerful in such circumstances is a type of “information void” going back hundreds of years. Think of Robert Maxwell, the father of the disgraced Ghislaine Maxwell who fell to his death on his £15m yacht, or Alfred Loewenstein, who vanished from his plane over the English Channel in 1928. 

“Sure, you could say there’s a 0.001% chance that both of them [Lynch and Chamberlain] were assassinated by some secret organisation, but that’s not the most likely explanation,” van der Linden says. “People should be paying attention to evidence-based explanations, which take time to develop.” 
Taken out of their remarkable coincidences, the facts of each accident are notably non-conspiratorial. Tornadic storms, of the sort that hit the Bayesian, are more common in hot or humid environments. The Mediterranean reached its highest recorded surface temperature last week, of 32 degrees. Chamberlain was hit on Newmarket Road in the village of Stretham. Police said that the driver, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is helping with inquiries. 

“People don’t like the idea that life isn’t certain, that we don’t have all the answers, that you could die at any minute, that bad accidents could happen to you,” says van der Linden. “It’s easier to believe it was all intentional and planned [rather] than somebody disappearing because a storm sank his boat.” 

None of this will be much comfort to the family and friends grieving their dead, being forced to endure some of the worst days of their lives amid fevered public speculation. A fanciful theory for the internet is an all too real loss for the people involved.


Tuesday, August 20, 2024

The Bitcoin Network: A Five-Star Financial Institution That Never Sleeps

Introduction

In the evolving landscape of global finance, the Bitcoin network has emerged as a revolutionary system challenging traditional banking norms. Often likened to a five or even six-star rated bank, Bitcoin offers unparalleled reliability, accessibility, and trustworthiness. Unlike conventional banks, which are bound by geographical, temporal, and institutional limitations, the Bitcoin network operates incessantly, ensuring seamless and secure transactions worldwide. This essay delves into the attributes that position Bitcoin as a superior financial system, outlining five key reasons supported by examples and comparing it to traditional banking structures.

Five Reasons Why the Bitcoin Network Mirrors a Five-Star Bank


1. Decentralization Ensures Unparalleled Reliability
   
   - Explanation: The Bitcoin network operates on a decentralized ledger known as the blockchain, which is maintained by a distributed network of computers (nodes) worldwide. This structure eliminates a central point of failure, making the system remarkably resilient against outages and attacks.
   
   - Example: In contrast to traditional banks that may suffer service disruptions due to technical failures or centralized attacks, Bitcoin has maintained near-continuous operation since its inception in 2009. Even during periods of intense network activity or attempted cyber-attacks, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin ensures that transactions continue to be processed without significant delays or failures.

2. 24/7 Accessibility Facilitates Continuous Financial Operations
   
   - Explanation: Bitcoin transactions can be conducted at any time, irrespective of weekends, holidays, or time zones. This constant availability empowers users to manage their finances whenever needed, without waiting for bank operating hours.
   
   - Example: Consider an international freelancer needing to receive payment from a client in another country. Through traditional banks, this transfer might be delayed due to weekend closures or processing times, potentially taking several days. With Bitcoin, the payment can be sent and confirmed within minutes, regardless of the day or time, ensuring prompt access to funds.

3. Robust Security Through Advanced Cryptography
   
   - Explanation: Bitcoin employs sophisticated cryptographic techniques to secure transactions and control the creation of new units. Each transaction is verified by network nodes and recorded on the blockchain, making it extremely difficult to alter or counterfeit.
   
   - Example: Instances of fraud and unauthorized transactions are prevalent concerns in traditional banking systems. However, Bitcoin's security measures have proven highly effective; for example, the immutable nature of blockchain records has prevented double-spending and ensured transactional integrity, fostering trust among users.

4. Transparency Enhances Trust and Accountability
   
   - Explanation: All Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded on the blockchain, allowing anyone to verify and audit transactions. This transparency reduces the potential for fraudulent activities and enhances accountability within the network.
   
   - Example: In traditional banking, opaque processes can obscure illicit activities such as money laundering. In contrast, Bitcoin's transparent ledger has been instrumental in tracing and investigating suspicious transactions, as evidenced by law enforcement agencies leveraging blockchain analysis tools to track and apprehend cybercriminals involved in illegal activities.

5. Borderless and Inclusive Financial Ecosystem
   
   - Explanation: Bitcoin transcends geographical boundaries, enabling seamless and cost-effective international transactions without the need for intermediaries or currency conversions. This inclusivity opens financial services to unbanked and underbanked populations worldwide.
   
   - Example: Migrant workers often face high fees and long wait times when sending remittances through traditional channels. Bitcoin offers a viable alternative, allowing them to transfer funds quickly and cheaply across borders. For instance, a worker in the United States can send Bitcoin to family in Nigeria almost instantly, avoiding hefty remittance fees and exchange rate losses.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin network embodies the qualities of a five-star financial institution through its decentralized structure, continuous availability, robust security, transparent operations, and inclusive nature. It addresses many of the inefficiencies and limitations inherent in traditional banking systems, offering a modern, efficient, and trustworthy alternative for conducting financial transactions. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected and digitalized, Bitcoin stands out as a resilient and adaptable financial system poised to meet the demands of contemporary society. While challenges and criticisms persist, the fundamental attributes of Bitcoin continue to drive its adoption and integration into the global financial ecosystem, underscoring its potential to redefine our understanding and engagement with money and banking.


[Note: The above was written with input by ChatGPT]

Monday, August 19, 2024

The Bitcoin Power Law: A few simple graphs and tables

In 10 years Bitcoin is expected to increase by at least 600%. This is the “touching cloth” support line according to the BTC PowerLaw:
$50,000 = $300,000
$100,000 = $600,000
$250,000 = $1.4 Million
$500,000 = $3 Million
$1 Million = $6 Million
In 10 years Bitcoin is expected to increase by at least 600%.


If you hold (hodl) your Bitcoin for 10 years, until 2033 then 1 Bitcoin will be no lower than $300,000 USD. This is according to the Bitcoin PowerLaw.
Called the “touching cloth” line… … Here is a 10-year graph (2024–2033) showing the lowest/support line for the Bitcoin price using the PowerLaw.
0-year graph (2024–2033) showing the lowest/support
Called the “touching cloth” line

Here is a table for the next 10 years (2024–2033) showing the lowest/support line for the Bitcoin price using the PowerLaw. This is a conservative way of looking at things.
0-year graph (2024–2033) showing the lowest/support

4-Year graph and table of the Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law. Shows “lowest/support” Bitcoin Price for halving years 2012–2048. This is all you need.


4-Year graph and table of the Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law

4-Year graph and table of the Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law

Inspired by the work of: @Giovann35084111 | @hcburger1 | @dotkrueger | @apsk32 | @math_sci_tech | + others

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Simple chart 2020 - 2048 (4-Year graph) of the Bitcoin Price Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law

Simple chart 2020 - 2048 (4-Year graph) of the Bitcoin Price Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law 

(All credit goes to the outstanding @Giovann35084111 and @hcburger1


Simple 2020 - 2048 (4-Year graph) of the Bitcoin Price Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
Simple chart 2020 - 2048 (4-Year graph) of the Bitcoin Price Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law 

Simple 4-Year table of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048) Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law

Simple 4-Year table of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048) Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law 

(All credit goes to @Giovann35084111 and @hcburger1

Simple 4-Year table of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048) Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law
Simple 4-Year table of the Bitcoin Price (2012 - 2048) Log/Log Bitcoin Power Law 

Was Mike Lynch Satoshi Nakamoto?

The more you look into his background the more you realise he has all the qualities and abilities... Autonomy, HP, DarkTrace, 3 letter agenc...