Bitcoin is a technology that's required to help mankind on the next evolutionary steps

Throughout history, humanity's greatest evolutionary leaps have been catalyzed not by biological mutations, but by technological and social innovations that fundamentally transformed how we organize, communicate, and exchange value. From the invention of writing to the printing press, from the steam engine to the internet, each breakthrough has expanded our collective capabilities and reshaped civilization itself. Today, we stand at another inflection point, where Bitcoin—a decentralized, cryptographically secured monetary protocol—may represent the next essential tool for humanity's continued evolution.

This claim may seem grandiose, even audacious. Yet when we examine Bitcoin through the lens of historical patterns, current global challenges, and future possibilities, a compelling case emerges that this technology addresses fundamental human needs that have plagued societies for millennia: the need for trustworthy money, freedom from centralized control, and a neutral system for storing and transferring value across time and space.

The Historical Context: Money as Social Technology

To understand Bitcoin's evolutionary significance, we must first recognize that money itself is humanity's most important social technology. As Yuval Noah Harari argues in Sapiens, money is "the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised." Before money, human cooperation was limited by the constraints of barter and the boundaries of tribal trust. Money enabled strangers to cooperate, cities to flourish, and civilizations to scale beyond the Dunbar number—the cognitive limit of approximately 150 individuals with whom we can maintain stable social relationships.

However, throughout history, this crucial technology has been repeatedly corrupted. Empires from Rome to Weimar Germany debased their currencies, destroying the savings of citizens and destabilizing entire societies. The Roman denarius, once nearly pure silver, was diluted to less than 5% silver content by the third century CE, contributing to economic chaos and the empire's eventual collapse. In more recent memory, the hyperinflation of 1920s Germany saw prices doubling every few days, wiping out the middle class and creating conditions that enabled totalitarian rise.

Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist, wrote in The Art of War: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." In the context of monetary systems, governments have long subdued their populations not through direct combat, but through the invisible taxation of inflation—a weapon wielded without the political cost of raising explicit taxes. Bitcoin, in this framework, represents a shield against this ancient form of economic subjugation.

The Present Challenge: A Crisis of Trust

We live in an era of unprecedented monetary experimentation and, paradoxically, unprecedented monetary fragility. Since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, fiat currencies have been unmoored from any physical constraint. Central banks have expanded money supplies at rates that would have been unthinkable to previous generations. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend dramatically—the U.S. Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet from roughly $4 trillion to $9 trillion in a matter of months, an increase of 125%.

The consequences ripple through society. Asset prices have inflated dramatically while real wages stagnate. A home that cost 2-3 times annual household income in the 1960s now costs 7-10 times that amount in many developed nations. Educational costs have exploded. The wealth gap has widened to levels not seen since the Gilded Age. Young people face the disturbing reality that they may be the first generation in modern history to be poorer than their parents.

Meanwhile, in authoritarian regimes and failing states, citizens face even more dire monetary circumstances. In Venezuela, hyperinflation destroyed the bolívar, with inflation rates exceeding 1,000,000% at its peak. Citizens lost their life savings overnight. In China, despite rapid economic development, citizens face strict capital controls that prevent them from protecting their wealth by moving it abroad. In Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, citizens must navigate currency restrictions that limit their ability to participate in the global economy.

Einstein, though never speaking directly about cryptocurrency, offered wisdom particularly relevant to our current predicament: "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." The problems of centralized monetary control—inflation, censorship, exclusion, political manipulation—cannot be solved by tweaking the existing centralized system. They require a fundamentally different architecture.

Bitcoin: An Evolutionary Technology

Bitcoin, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, offers precisely such a different architecture. At its core, Bitcoin is a decentralized ledger maintained by a global network of computers, secured by cryptographic proof rather than institutional authority. No single entity controls it. No government can inflate it beyond its predetermined supply schedule. No bank can freeze it. No border can stop it.

These properties are not merely technical curiosities—they represent evolutionary advantages for human cooperation and flourishing.

Scarcity and Sound Money

Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, programmatically enforced by mathematics rather than institutional promises. This makes it the first genuinely scarce digital asset in human history. As the ancient principle holds: "Hard money makes for sound societies." When money maintains its value over time, it encourages saving, long-term planning, and capital accumulation—the foundations of prosperity.

Friedrich Hayek, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, argued in The Denationalization of Money that government monopoly over currency was neither necessary nor desirable, and that competitive private currencies could better serve society. Bitcoin realizes Hayek's vision in digital form—not as a replacement imposed from above, but as an alternative that individuals can voluntarily adopt.

Decentralization and Resilience

Bitcoin's decentralized architecture makes it antifragile—it actually grows stronger through adversity and attack. When China banned Bitcoin mining in 2021, removing an estimated 50% of the network's computing power overnight, the network automatically adjusted and continued operating seamlessly. Miners relocated to other countries, and the network emerged more geographically distributed and resilient than before.

This resilience echoes evolutionary principles found throughout nature. Centralized systems, like monocultures in agriculture, are vulnerable to single points of failure. Distributed systems, like diverse ecosystems, can withstand shocks and adapt. Bitcoin's architecture embodies this biological wisdom in digital form.

Accessibility and Financial Inclusion

Perhaps Bitcoin's most profound evolutionary contribution is its potential to extend financial access to the billions of people excluded from the traditional banking system. According to the World Bank, approximately 1.4 billion adults globally remain unbanked. They cannot save securely, access credit, or participate fully in the digital economy. Bitcoin requires only internet access—increasingly available even in developing regions—and no permission from gatekeepers.

In El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, the experiment demonstrated both promise and challenges. While implementation faced obstacles, it showed that alternative monetary systems are no longer mere theoretical exercises but lived reality. In Nigeria, where the government restricted access to traditional cryptocurrency exchanges, peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading flourished, demonstrating the technology's resistance to censorship.

Historical Parallels: The Printing Press and the Internet

To appreciate Bitcoin's evolutionary significance, consider two historical precedents: the printing press and the internet.

When Johannes Gutenberg invented movable-type printing around 1440, the Catholic Church initially viewed it as a threat to their control over knowledge and religious doctrine. They were correct. Within decades, the printing press enabled the Protestant Reformation, the Scientific Revolution, and the Enlightenment. It democratized information, broke institutional monopolies on knowledge, and fundamentally restructured society.

The church could have banned the printing press. Some tried. But the benefits were too compelling, the technology too useful. It spread anyway, and societies that embraced it flourished while those that resisted it stagnated.

The internet represents a more recent parallel. In the 1990s, many dismissed it as a toy for academics and technologists. Paul Krugman famously predicted in 1998 that "by 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." Today, the internet is the infrastructure upon which modern civilization operates. It has created trillions of dollars in value, connected billions of people, and transformed every industry.

Both technologies shared key characteristics with Bitcoin: they were decentralized protocols, not centrally controlled platforms. They empowered individuals by removing intermediaries. They faced skepticism and resistance from established powers. And they were ultimately unstoppable because they were useful.

Bitcoin follows this pattern. It removes intermediaries from value transfer just as the internet removed them from information transfer. It empowers individuals just as the printing press empowered readers. And it faces similar resistance from institutions whose power depends on the old system.

Present Applications: From Theory to Practice

Bitcoin is not merely theoretical promise—it is actively being used today to solve real problems:

In Authoritarian Regimes: During the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests in Canada, the government invoked emergency powers to freeze the bank accounts of protesters and donors without due process. Bitcoin donations to the protesters could not be similarly frozen, demonstrating its resistance to financial censorship. In Russia, after international sanctions limited access to the SWIFT payment system, citizens turned to Bitcoin to preserve wealth and maintain international transactions.

In Developing Economies: In countries experiencing currency collapse, Bitcoin provides a lifeline. Lebanese citizens, watching their banks impose arbitrary withdrawal limits during the country's financial crisis, used Bitcoin to preserve savings. Argentinians, facing chronic inflation and currency controls, increasingly adopt Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as stores of value.

In Remittances: Migrant workers sending money home face fees averaging 6-7% through traditional services like Western Union. Bitcoin and Lightning Network transactions can reduce these costs to near-zero, allowing workers to send more of their hard-earned money to their families. For the $700 billion annual global remittance market, even small percentage savings translate to tens of billions of dollars returned to recipients.

In Energy Systems: Bitcoin mining has found an unexpected application in energy markets. Because mining operations can instantly turn on or off, they can absorb excess renewable energy that would otherwise be wasted, helping to stabilize electrical grids and make renewable energy projects more economically viable. In Texas, Bitcoin miners provide grid flexibility, shutting down during peak demand to prevent blackouts.

Future Implications: The Next Evolutionary Steps

Looking forward, Bitcoin's role in human evolution may extend far beyond current applications:

Interplanetary Commerce

As humanity expands beyond Earth—with serious proposals for Mars colonies from SpaceX and others—we will need monetary systems that can operate across vast distances where communication delays make real-time transaction verification impossible. Bitcoin's programmatic nature and eventual integration with offline transaction protocols could make it ideal for interplanetary commerce. As Carl Sagan might have appreciated: we need a cosmic perspective on money, just as we need a cosmic perspective on our place in the universe.

AI and Algorithmic Commerce

As artificial intelligence becomes more sophisticated, AI agents will need ways to transact automatically without human intervention. Bitcoin's programmable nature makes it well-suited for machine-to-machine payments. Autonomous vehicles could pay for charging, AI assistants could purchase services, and smart devices could negotiate and settle transactions—all without human involvement. This represents an evolutionary step beyond human-scale economic interaction.

Time Preference and Civilization

Perhaps most profoundly, Bitcoin may help humanity develop lower time preference—the ability to delay gratification and plan for the long term. When money reliably holds value, people save for the future rather than consuming immediately. This shift in collective behavior could address some of civilization's most pressing challenges, from environmental sustainability to infrastructure investment.

As Einstein observed: "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it." Bitcoin makes earning compound interest on sound money possible for everyone, not just those with access to sophisticated financial systems.

Digital Sovereignty

In an age where our digital lives are controlled by mega-corporations and surveillance states, Bitcoin offers a form of digital sovereignty—the ability to own and control digital value absolutely, without permission or oversight. This represents an evolutionary adaptation to digital existence, asserting property rights in cyberspace just as our ancestors developed property rights in physical space.

Counterarguments and Challenges

Intellectual honesty requires acknowledging Bitcoin's limitations and the serious criticisms leveled against it:

Energy Consumption: Bitcoin mining currently consumes significant electrical energy, though estimates vary widely and the percentage derived from renewable sources continues to increase. Critics argue this energy use is wasteful; proponents counter that securing a global monetary network is a worthy use of energy, comparable to the energy costs of maintaining the traditional financial system (bank branches, ATMs, armored vehicles, etc.).

Volatility: Bitcoin's price volatility makes it currently unsuitable as a unit of account or medium of exchange for everyday transactions. This may diminish as adoption increases and market depth grows, but it remains a significant present limitation.

Regulatory Uncertainty: Governments worldwide are still determining how to classify and regulate Bitcoin, creating legal uncertainty that inhibits adoption.

Technological Barriers: Using Bitcoin securely requires technical knowledge that many people lack. Loss of private keys means permanent loss of funds—a harsh reality incompatible with human fallibility. User experience must improve dramatically for mass adoption.

Environmental Concerns: Beyond energy consumption, the electronic waste generated by mining hardware poses environmental challenges that must be addressed.

These challenges are real and substantial. Yet they may represent growing pains rather than fatal flaws. The internet faced similar criticisms in its early decades—too slow, too complex, too dangerous for commerce, lacking regulation. Evolutionary processes are messy, and transformative technologies typically require decades to mature.

Wisdom from the Ages

Throughout history, visionaries have articulated principles that illuminate Bitcoin's potential significance:

Sun Tzu taught: "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win." Bitcoin represents preparation—building alternative infrastructure before the need becomes desperate, before the existing system fails catastrophically.

Einstein warned: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." We have tried centralized monetary control for centuries, with repeated failures. Bitcoin offers something genuinely different.

Benjamin Franklin observed: "In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." Bitcoin challenges even this cynical wisdom—it creates space for economic activity beyond the reach of taxation and control, restoring some balance between individual liberty and state power.

And Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's mysterious creator, wrote in the genesis block: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." This timestamp captures Bitcoin's founding purpose: to provide an alternative when traditional financial institutions fail and governments bail them out at the expense of ordinary citizens.

Conclusion: An Evolutionary Imperative

Human evolution has never been purely biological. Our greatest evolutionary leaps have come through our unique ability to create tools, develop language, and build social technologies that extend our capabilities. Money is one such technology—perhaps the most important for enabling cooperation at scale.

Bitcoin represents the next iteration of this ancient technology, adapted for a digital, globalized, interconnected world. It addresses fundamental problems that have plagued monetary systems throughout history: centralized control, arbitrary inflation, censorship, and exclusion. It does so not through benevolent leadership or institutional reform, but through mathematical certainty and distributed consensus.

Whether Bitcoin ultimately succeeds in becoming a global reserve currency or remains a niche asset for those seeking alternatives, it has already demonstrated that decentralized digital money is possible. It has proven that money can exist without government decree. It has shown that financial systems can operate without banks or intermediaries. These proofs of concept cannot be undone.

As we face the challenges of the 21st century—climate change, resource scarcity, technological disruption, geopolitical tension—we need every tool available to navigate successfully. We need systems that empower individuals while enabling cooperation. We need money that cannot be arbitrarily manipulated. We need alternatives when institutions fail.

The question is not whether humanity needs to evolve its monetary systems—the failures of the current system make this clear. The question is whether Bitcoin, specifically, is the technology that enables this evolution. History suggests that the answer may be yes. Technologies that decentralize power, that remove intermediaries, that give individuals greater control—these technologies have repeatedly proven to be on the right side of history.

Sun Tzu wrote: "Opportunities multiply as they are seized." Bitcoin presents an opportunity for humanity to seize control of one of civilization's most essential tools. Whether we are wise enough to take it, and patient enough to nurture it through its maturation, will help determine whether our next evolutionary steps lead toward greater freedom and prosperity, or whether we remain bound by the limitations of systems designed for a bygone era.

The choice, as always in human evolution, is ours to make.

Imagine the world today if Bitcoin hadn't been invented

In January 2009, an anonymous figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first Bitcoin block, embedding within it a pointed message: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." This moment marked the birth of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. But what if that genesis block had never been created? What would our financial, technological, and social landscape look like today without Bitcoin's influence?

The Financial System: Stability or Stagnation?

Without Bitcoin, the traditional banking system would have faced less disruption but also less innovation pressure. The 2008 financial crisis would have prompted reforms, but the fundamental architecture of centralized financial institutions would have remained largely unchallenged. Major banks might have continued their gradual digitization without the urgent need to respond to decentralized alternatives.

On one hand, this could mean greater stability. The cryptocurrency boom-and-bust cycles that have wiped out fortunes—from Bitcoin's peak of nearly $69,000 in 2021 to subsequent crashes—would never have occurred. Retail investors wouldn't have lost billions in exchange collapses like Mt. Gox or FTX. Regulators wouldn't be scrambling to create frameworks for digital assets, and financial crime investigators wouldn't be tracking ransomware payments through blockchain explorers.

On the other hand, monopolistic inefficiencies might have persisted longer. International remittances would still cost an average of 6-7% through traditional channels, taking days to settle. Millions of unbanked individuals in developing nations would lack the alternative financial infrastructure that cryptocurrency has provided. The financial system's gatekeepers would face less competitive pressure to reduce fees or improve services.

Technological Innovation: A Different Trajectory

Bitcoin's underlying blockchain technology has spawned applications far beyond currency. Without it, distributed ledger technology might have emerged eventually, but likely much later and in different forms. IBM's supply chain tracking systems, Estonia's digital government infrastructure, and countless enterprise blockchain projects drew direct inspiration from Bitcoin's proof-of-concept.

The venture capital landscape would look dramatically different. Billions of dollars that flowed into blockchain startups since 2013 would have been allocated elsewhere—perhaps accelerating progress in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, or biotechnology instead. The initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017-2018, which raised over $20 billion despite being largely fraudulent, simply wouldn't have happened. This represents both avoided waste and foregone legitimate innovation.

Smart contract platforms like Ethereum, which launched in 2015 building on Bitcoin's foundation, might never have materialized. This means no decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, no NFT marketplaces, and no decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). Whether this represents a loss depends on one's perspective—these innovations have enabled both remarkable experiments in digital ownership and spectacular scams.

Geopolitical Implications: Power Structures Preserved

Bitcoin emerged as a form of financial resistance to centralized control. Without it, authoritarian governments would face less challenge to their monetary sovereignty. Citizens in Venezuela, where hyperinflation destroyed the bolivar, or in Argentina, where currency controls restrict economic freedom, would lack one tool for preserving wealth. During Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cryptocurrency enabled millions in donations to flow directly to defenders; this avenue for financial activism wouldn't exist.

However, these same properties have enabled illicit activities. Without Bitcoin, ransomware attacks would be far more difficult to monetize—criminals couldn't demand untraceable payments as easily. The Silk Road darknet marketplace, which facilitated over $1 billion in illegal drug sales before its 2013 shutdown, relied entirely on Bitcoin. North Korea's state-sponsored hackers wouldn't have stolen billions in cryptocurrency to fund their weapons programs.

The U.S. dollar's position as the global reserve currency might be even more entrenched without cryptocurrency alternatives. China's central bank digital currency project was explicitly developed as a response to Bitcoin and private cryptocurrencies; without that impetus, digital yuan development might have proceeded more slowly. The entire conversation around monetary sovereignty in the digital age would be fundamentally different.

Cultural and Social Impacts: Dreams Deferred

Bitcoin created a unique subculture—one that blends libertarian economics, technological utopianism, and anti-establishment sentiment. The "crypto bro" stereotype wouldn't exist, for better or worse. Online communities like Reddit's r/Bitcoin and countless Discord servers dedicated to cryptocurrency trading would never have formed. Millions of people wouldn't identify as "Bitcoiners" with a shared ideological framework.

The "get rich quick" narratives that have characterized cryptocurrency would be absent. Young people wouldn't have stories of turning thousands into millions through early Bitcoin investments, but they also wouldn't have tales of life savings lost in cryptocurrency collapses. The wealth inequality created by Bitcoin's distribution—where early adopters and miners hold enormous advantages—wouldn't exist, though traditional wealth inequality certainly would remain.

Educational institutions and career paths have also been shaped by Bitcoin's existence. University blockchain programs, cryptocurrency research institutes, and entire job categories from blockchain developers to crypto tax accountants wouldn't exist. This represents thousands of diverted careers and educational resources that might have been applied elsewhere.

The Economic Debate: Value Created or Destroyed?

Critics argue that without Bitcoin, enormous amounts of energy and human capital wouldn't have been wasted. Bitcoin mining now consumes roughly as much electricity annually as entire nations like Argentina. Thousands of brilliant programmers and entrepreneurs who built cryptocurrency infrastructure might have instead worked on climate solutions, medical research, or poverty reduction.

Proponents counter that Bitcoin demonstrated the viability of decentralized systems and inspired innovation in cryptography, distributed systems, and economic mechanism design. The talent attracted to cryptocurrency has advanced computer science in ways that may yield benefits far beyond finance. Moreover, Bitcoin has functioned as intended for those who needed censorship-resistant money, even if that population is smaller than early advocates imagined.

Looking Forward from an Alternate Present

In a world without Bitcoin, we would likely be having different conversations about the future of money—perhaps focused more on central bank digital currencies developed without the competitive pressure of cryptocurrencies, or on incremental improvements to existing payment systems like faster bank transfers and lower credit card fees.

Technology giants like Facebook (with its abandoned Libra project) wouldn't have attempted to create private currencies. Governments wouldn't be wrestling with how to tax, regulate, and monitor cryptocurrency transactions. The 2021 El Salvador experiment of making Bitcoin legal tender wouldn't have happened, along with its subsequent economic difficulties.

Yet something else would have filled Bitcoin's cultural niche. The desire for financial alternatives to traditional institutions, the appeal of get-rich-quick schemes, and the drive for technological disruption are all enduring human impulses. Without Bitcoin, perhaps gold would have experienced an even stronger revival, or peer-to-peer payment systems would have evolved differently, or some other form of alternative finance would have emerged.

Conclusion: Progress, Regress, or Simply Different?

Judging whether the world would be better or worse without Bitcoin requires weighing incommensurable values. We would have avoided cryptocurrency's substantial harms: the scams, the environmental costs, the ransomware epidemic, and the billions lost in failed exchanges. But we would also lack its innovations: a proven decentralized digital currency, blockchain technology's demonstrated applications, and a financial alternative for those failed by traditional systems.

Perhaps the most honest assessment is that the world would simply be different—neither utopian nor dystopian, but shaped by other technologies and other choices. Bitcoin's invention was not inevitable, and the paths not taken always carry their own possibilities. Whether we're better off in this timeline than in one without Satoshi Nakamoto's creation remains a question without a definitive answer, dependent on which values we prioritize and whose perspective we adopt.

Will the USA Establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026? Analysing the Prospects

The idea of governments incorporating cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into their fiscal strategies is becoming less far-fetched. However, the notion that the United States might announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) by 2026 remains highly speculative and is mired in economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties. Here’s a deeper dive into the feasibility of such a development.

Understanding the Concept of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would mean that the federal government, much like with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, holds a stockpile of Bitcoin as part of its national treasury assets. This could serve multiple purposes: hedging against financial crises, bolstering the dollar's position by diversifying reserves, or even as a strategic asset in trade negotiations. But the path to such an initiative is fraught with hurdles.

Economic and Regulatory Challenges

The volatile nature of Bitcoin poses a significant risk for any government considering its reserve status. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are notorious, and its valuation can swing wildly based on market sentiment, regulatory news, and technological developments. For a conservative entity like a national government, these characteristics make Bitcoin a risky reserve asset.

Moreover, regulatory frameworks in the USA are still catching up with the fast-paced evolution of cryptocurrencies. Issues surrounding tax implications, anti-money laundering (AML) standards, and consumer protection are still being debated. Establishing a reserve would require robust legal frameworks that are currently lacking.

Political Landscape

The political environment regarding cryptocurrencies in the USA is complex and varied. While some lawmakers advocate for progressive cryptocurrency regulations and promote innovation in blockchain technologies, others are staunchly opposed, citing financial risks and potential misuse for illicit activities. This division makes it difficult to achieve the consensus needed to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.

Public Perception and Institutional Readiness

Public trust in Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency technologies is mixed. While there is significant interest and investment from the private sector, the general population remains skeptical about the stability and utility of cryptocurrencies. Without broad public support, a move as bold as establishing a Bitcoin reserve could be politically unviable.

Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department would also need to significantly adapt their operations to manage a Bitcoin reserve. This includes developing new tools for risk assessment, market intervention, and asset management specific to cryptocurrencies.

Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond

Predicting a strategic move such as establishing a Bitcoin reserve by 2026 is challenging. It would require a dramatic shift in regulatory posture, economic strategy, and political will, all within a relatively short timeframe. Given the current landscape, it appears unlikely that the United States will announce a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by 2026. However, as with all things crypto, the unexpected can always happen.

As stakeholders in the financial world continue to watch the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in global economics, the discussion about its potential integration into national reserves remains a topic of hot debate and speculation. Whether or not the USA takes a monumental step towards such an integration by 2026 remains to be seen, but what is certain is that the conversation isn’t going away anytime soon.

How Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto Helped Donald Trump Become the 47th President

On January 20th, 2025, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. His return to the Oval Office has sparked discussions worldwide, but one perspective stands out: the pivotal role Bitcoin and cryptocurrency played in enabling his second presidency. Without Satoshi Nakamoto's revolutionary invention, this political outcome, and its broader implications for the world, might never have come to pass.

The Power of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency, was introduced in 2009 by the pseudonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto. Initially dismissed by many as an experimental oddity, Bitcoin became the foundation for a new global financial system. It empowered individuals to transact and store value without relying on traditional banks or governments, ushering in a new era of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Over the years, Bitcoin’s influence has expanded beyond finance. It became a symbol of freedom from central authority, appealing to millions who sought transparency, privacy, and self-sovereignty. By the 2020s, its influence permeated politics, as the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency became a rallying cry for many.

Bitcoin’s Role in Trump’s 2024 Campaign

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency owes much to the grassroots support powered by cryptocurrency. Campaign financing in the modern era increasingly relies on small, direct contributions from individuals. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin allowed Trump's supporters to contribute to his campaign without traditional banking barriers, transcending geographical boundaries and political restrictions.

Moreover, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin helped counteract censorship and traditional financial roadblocks. During his 2024 campaign, there were significant efforts to deplatform and financially stifle his movement. Cryptocurrency provided an alternative, unshackled medium for fundraising and communication, enabling a resilient and resourceful campaign infrastructure.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Unlikely Role in Global Politics

It’s fascinating to consider the chain of events set in motion by Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention. Without Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency revolution might never have occurred. Without the decentralization and financial freedom Bitcoin enabled, Trump's political movement may have been unable to thrive in the face of institutional challenges.

Bitcoin not only financed the campaign but symbolized a deeper message: a rejection of centralized control. Trump's campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” resonated with the crypto community’s ethos of empowering individuals over institutions. For many, Bitcoin became a metaphor for self-determination, a fitting parallel to Trump's own brand of populist politics.

Bitcoin, Trump, and the World Stage

Donald Trump's second presidency, made possible in part by Bitcoin, presents a unique opportunity for cryptocurrency on the global stage. Trump has publicly expressed mixed views on Bitcoin in the past, but his second term could see a dramatic policy shift. Bitcoin and blockchain technology might now find a champion in the White House, shaping U.S. economic and technological policy for decades to come.

The geopolitical implications are enormous. A pro-Bitcoin administration could position the U.S. as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption and innovation, further decentralizing power and reshaping the global financial order. Trump’s presidency, enabled by Bitcoin, may also accelerate discussions about digital currencies' role in fostering individual freedoms and countering authoritarian control worldwide.

The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin Saved the World

The story doesn’t end with Trump. Bitcoin’s rise signifies something much larger: the dawn of a decentralized world. By removing the need for intermediaries, Bitcoin has empowered billions, fostering financial inclusion and innovation.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation didn’t just change finance, it reshaped society’s understanding of power, freedom, and trust. Whether they intended it or not, Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention has influenced everything from technology to politics, culminating in Donald Trump’s second presidency.

Conclusion

Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention of Bitcoin set off a chain reaction that, years later, helped Donald Trump become the 47th President of the United States. This event underscores the profound and unexpected ways Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are reshaping our world.

In the years to come, Trump’s presidency and its relationship with Bitcoin may redefine the global order. And while history will judge Trump’s leadership, one thing is clear: Satoshi Nakamoto’s legacy extends far beyond technology, it is now intertwined with the fate of nations.

Bitcoin saved the world. Satoshi Nakamoto saved the world. And now, Donald Trump has a chance to do the same.

USA Elections 2024 and Bonfire Night in the UK: A Night of Democracy, History, and Anticipation For Bitcoin

November 5, 2024, is shaping up to be a night of high energy and deep significance on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, millions of Americans are heading to the polls to vote in a critical presidential election. At the same time, in the United Kingdom, people are gathering to celebrate Bonfire Night, or Guy Fawkes Night, with fireworks and bonfires. While these events are distinct in purpose and tradition, both involve themes of civic engagement, historical reflection, and the power of the people.

USA Elections 2024: The Stakes Are Higher Than Ever

In the United States, the 2024 election has captured global attention with a rematch that’s as polarizing as it is consequential. Voters are choosing between Donald Trump, who has mounted an unprecedented return campaign, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who represents continuity from the current administration. This election is not just a contest between two individuals; it reflects broader ideological divides within the country, from economic policies to healthcare reform to the United States' role on the world stage.

Donald Trump’s campaign has emphasized a return to his brand of economic populism, and border security, and promises to “drain the swamp” in Washington. His supporters view him as a champion of the working class and a force against establishment politics. Trump’s campaign has also centred on deregulatory policies, pledging to free businesses from perceived governmental constraints to foster economic growth. He’s taken a hard line on immigration, pushing for stricter policies and promising to restore "law and order."

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has focused on continuing the policies she supported as Vice President, such as affordable healthcare, climate action, and progressive social policies. Her campaign has emphasized unity, justice, and inclusivity, appealing to a broad coalition of young voters, minorities, and moderate Democrats. Harris has also made history as the first woman of colour to serve as Vice President, and if she wins, she would become the first female President in U.S. history—a milestone with enormous symbolic and practical impact.

The outcome of this election will shape the United States for years to come, impacting both domestic policy and international relations. The world will be watching as swing states tally their votes, and communities across the U.S. hold their breath in anticipation of the results.

Bitcoin and the Future of U.S. Financial Policy

One of the unique issues in this election has been the role of cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, in the American economy. Digital currencies have gained popularity as both an investment asset and a potential alternative to traditional banking systems. Each candidate has a different stance on how the U.S. should engage with Bitcoin and other digital currencies, which could impact the future of financial policy and the economy at large.

Donald Trump has been vocal in his scepticism of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, often warning of its potential risks and volatility. He has argued that cryptocurrency could undermine the U.S. dollar and facilitate illegal activities. A second Trump administration might push for stricter regulations on digital currencies to protect traditional banking and national economic stability. This could lead to policies that discourage or even restrict Bitcoin use, potentially limiting the growth of cryptocurrency markets within the U.S.

Kamala Harris, however, has taken a more open-minded approach to digital assets, considering cryptocurrency as an area ripe for innovation. While Harris has not fully endorsed Bitcoin as an alternative currency, she has signalled a willingness to work with blockchain experts and has proposed regulations that balance innovation with consumer protection. If Harris were to win, it’s possible that the U.S. would adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrency, integrating it more fully into the economy and even exploring a government-backed digital dollar, as some other countries have done.

Bonfire Night in the UK: A Celebration of Democracy and Tradition

While Americans are casting their votes, British people are marking Bonfire Night, a beloved tradition with its own unique historical significance. Also known as Guy Fawkes Night, Bonfire Night commemorates the failed Gunpowder Plot of 1605, when Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators attempted to blow up the Houses of Parliament and assassinate King James I. The plot was foiled, and the king survived, leading to annual celebrations of the monarchy's preservation and, over time, a broader reflection on British governance and unity.

Across the UK, communities come together to celebrate with firework displays, bonfires, and the burning of effigies of Guy Fawkes. Families gather in parks and back gardens to enjoy seasonal treats and watch the skies light up with bright, colourful displays. For many, Bonfire Night is a reminder of the long-standing democratic traditions in Britain and the importance of protecting freedom from the threat of violence and tyranny.

Bridging Two Worlds on November 5th

Although separated by geography and purpose, the events in the United States and the United Kingdom on November 5th are bonded by themes of history, tradition, and civic duty. For Americans, this election represents a chance to set a new direction or reaffirm a previous path, with the future of the economy, the climate, healthcare, and more hanging in the balance. For Britons, Bonfire Night is an opportunity to celebrate their rich history and the triumph of democratic ideals, while remembering that political engagement is as crucial today as it was in 1605.

Both the election and Bonfire Night evoke a shared spirit of community and collective action. While Americans await the final vote tallies, the skies over the UK will be filled with fireworks—a reminder that democracy, in all its forms, remains a powerful force for unity and progress. This November 5th, as votes are counted and bonfires are lit, the world is reminded of the enduring importance of people-powered change, from the streets of Washington to the parks of London.

Bitcoin is not crypto, and crypto is not Bitcoin

Bitcoin and crypto are not the same thing. This is an important point. Yes, Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but do not be misguided and lump Bitcoin with all other cryptocurrencies, (known as crypto or alt coins). Once this is understood, everything becomes much clearer about Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not crypto

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

Good video by CF Benchmarks "What is Crypto?"...

https://vimeo.com/840192125

The quiet master of cryptocurrency — Nick Szabo

In conversation with Naval Ravikant
by Tim Ferris
https://tim.blog/2017/06/04/nick-szabo/

A basic glossary of terms for Bitcoin

A few short and simple definitions
https://tangelo.co/insights/blog/techs-must-have-reference-guide-to-blockchain-and-cryptocurrency

Ever wonder how bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) actually work?

From 3Blue1Brown:

https://youtu.be/bBC-nXj3Ng4

Great resource: collection of bibliography links for cryptocurrency course

Here are links to research papers. These were listed in the Princeton University cryptocurrency course:

https://ws680.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=910977

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.472.9475&rep=rep1&type=pdf

http://www.hashcash.org/papers/hashcash.pdf

https://lamport.azurewebsites.net/pubs/paxos-simple.pdf

https://unglueit-files.s3.amazonaws.com/ebf/05db7df4f31840f0a873d6ea14dcc28d.pdf

https://fc13.ifca.ai/proc/1-2.pdf

https://cs.jhu.edu/~sdoshi/crypto/papers/shamirturing.pdf

https://users.encs.concordia.ca/~clark/papers/2015_ccs.pdf

https://allquantor.at/blockchainbib/pdf/taylor2013bitcoin.pdf

http://www.allied-control.com/publications/Analysis_of_Large-Scale_Bitcoin_Mining_Operations.pdf

http://www.jbonneau.com/doc/BMCNKF15-IEEESP-bitcoin.pdf

https://www.cs.cornell.edu/~ie53/publications/btcProcFC.pdf

https://www.econinfosec.org/archive/weis2013/papers/KrollDaveyFeltenWEIS2013.pdf

https://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~smeiklejohn/files/imc13.pdf

https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/Brito_BitcoinPrimer.pdf

https://svn.torproject.org/svn/projects/design-paper/tor-design.pdf

http://antoanthongtin.vn/Portals/0/UploadImages/kiennt2/Sach/Sach-CSDL4/D039.pdf

https://www.cs.ru.nl/~jhh/pub/secsem/chaum1985bigbrother.pdf

https://www.dfs.ny.gov/legal/regulations/adoptions/dfsp200t.pdf

https://www.tarsnap.com/scrypt/scrypt.pdf
http://www.std.org/~msm/common/memorybound.pdf

http://hashcash.org/papers/cuckoo.pdf

https://eprint.iacr.org/2013/784.pdf

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~ericz/predictionmarkets.pdf

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/PromisePredMkt.pdf
https://blockstream.com/sidechains.pdf

http://randomwalker.info/publications/namespaces.pdf

http://blockchainlab.com/pdf/Ethereum_white_paper-a_next_generation_smart_contract_and_decentralized_application_platform-vitalik-buterin.pdf

https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/702.pdf

Visualisation...start of Bitcoin

Here is an interesting interactive graphic.

It shows the entire six-year history of all bitcoin transactions – as recorded in the 35 gigabyte blockchain ledger. 

What insights can be extracted from data, and why are we doing this? Elliptic is working to counter the illicit use of bitcoin, by providing businesses with tools that can analyse cryptocurrency payments and determine whether they are likely to be proceeds of crime. By identifying dark marketplaces, known thefts and other illicit activity on the blockchain we can help businesses to prevent money laundering.


https://info.elliptic.co/hubfs/big-bang/bigbang-v1.html?t=1533042584917

Analysis Websites....

Here are a couple of websites for analysis of transactions.

Chainalysis
https://www.chainalysis.com

Elliptic
https://www.elliptic.co

Mt. Gox - Magic: The Gathering Online eXchange

Here is an interesting read. This is all about an exchange that was hacked. The name is/was Mt. Gox - Magic: The Gathering Online eXchange.

http://fortune.com/longform/bitcoin-mt-gox-hack-karpeles/

Mt. Gox and the Surprising Redemption of Bitcoin’s Biggest Villain
He led the world's largest Bitcoin exchange before a mysterious heist made it go bust. As clues emerge and Bitcoin's price surges, Mark Karpelès is on the hunt for answers.
By Jen Wieczner
April 19, 2018

The moment that would change the history of Mt. Gox came without so much as a beep. Mark Karpelès, the CEO of what until recently had been the world’s biggest Bitcoin exchange, was finally alone, save for his tabby cat, in his palatial penthouse with a panoramic view of Tokyo. It was the evening of March 7, 2014, and Karpelès had barely slept in the week since Mt. Gox had sought bankruptcy protection, announcing that 850,000 of its Bitcoins, worth some $473 million at the time—and representing 7% of all Bitcoins then in existence—had somehow disappeared. With protesters and camera crews swarming in front of Mt. Gox’s office and the price of Bitcoin in free fall, the usually unflappable Frenchman had been confined to a self-imposed house arrest, subsisting on the buttery pastries he liked to bake and reading the hate mail that flooded in from all corners of the Internet—most of it accusing him of stealing the money himself. Today the Mt. Gox hack remains the worst disaster in Bitcoin’s short history.

It wasn’t until his lawyers had gone home for the day that Karpelès could retreat to his computer, and that’s when he noticed the shocking number on his screen. Following his company’s collapse, he’d spent days methodically double-checking Mt. Gox’s old digital wallets, where the secret alphanumeric keys for accessing Bitcoins are stored. One after another—a dozen so far—the wallets had come up empty. But this time, when the blockchain-scanning program finished running after six hours, it had silently served up an unexpected result: He’d found 200,000 Bitcoins, stashed away in an archived file in the cloud—apparently forgotten and untouched for three years.

Mark Karpelès in Tokyo’s Shinjuku district. The former Mt. Gox CEO, who once felt safe leaving his laptop on a park bench, refused to set down his bag for fear of theft.
Mark Karpelès in Tokyo’s Shinjuku district. The former Mt. Gox CEO, who once felt safe leaving his laptop on a park bench, refused to set down his bag for fear of theft. Photographed by Eric Rechsteiner for Fortune
In a series of conversations with Fortune, Karpelès shared for the first time the full details of what he says really happened in the final days of Mt. Gox—including his account of how he stumbled on the 200,000 Bitcoins.

The surprise discovery would turn out to be, to this day, the only hope Mt. Gox customers have of getting their money back. It’s been proved that the other 650,000 missing Bitcoins were stolen—we now know, by various hackers. But Karpelès continues to be one of the most infamous figures in cryptocurrency. And his legal fate is uncertain, even as new evidence has emerged that largely exonerates him.

Ironically, today Karpelès doesn’t view the retrieval of the 200,000 Bitcoins as a lucky break. They’ve become such a subject of contention, in fact, that he wonders whether it might have been better if they’d remained lost. “At the time, I felt finding these was a good thing for everyone,” recalls Karpelès, now 32, his French accent still strong after nearly nine years in Japan. “But now this is also the main reason why we are stuck fighting.”

To many, the belated revelation seemed too good to be true—making the unemotional programmer-turned-mogul look even guiltier. Was he just coughing up his go-bag in an attempt to wiggle out of trouble? Soon, they had even more reason to suspect him: Leaked trading records suggested that what could only be an internal Mt. Gox account—widely known today as the “Willy bot”—was artificially inflating its account balance and using the money to buy Bitcoins. When Mt. Gox ran low on Bitcoins, Willy helped make up the shortfall. Sometimes its trades went the other way, selling borrowed Bitcoins to generate cash. Critics speculate that it was a fraudulent, if failed, exercise to keep Mt. Gox afloat.

That suspicious activity by the Willy bot led to Karpelès’s arrest in August 2015 on charges of manipulating electronic data; he admitted in court last summer to running what he called the “obligation exchange” but disputes doing anything illegal. After spending almost a year in jail, Karpelès is currently on trial in Tokyo, facing criminal allegations such as embezzlement and breach of trust, all unrelated to the missing Bitcoins.

But it was an unforeseen twist that today is causing Karpelès the greatest angst. Between the time Mt. Gox shut down and when it entered liquidation in April 2014, the price of Bitcoin had plummeted more than 20% to $483. It would be over two and a half years before Bitcoin would regain its previous high—long enough that many Mt. Gox victims didn’t even bother filing a claim for what they considered an insignificant sum. Then early last year, Bitcoin finally broke its old record. By late May, it was trading at nearly $2,200, making Mt. Gox’s remaining Bitcoins—202,185 to be exact—worth more than everything it owed in claims. When the Bitcoin price peaked at $20,000 in December, the value of Mt. Gox’s assets (by then including Bitcoin derivatives such as Bitcoin Cash) ballooned to $4.4 billion—nearly 10 times the amount Mt. Gox said it lost in the first place. “The fact that you have a bankruptcy where the only asset that it owns goes up by 5,000%, that’s pretty unprecedented,” says Daniel Kelman, a lawyer and Mt. Gox creditor who spent a year in Tokyo working on the case.

After months studying Japan’s bankruptcy code while in solitary confinement, Karpelès knew there was a wrinkle: Under the law, most of that excess would return to shareholders of Mt. Gox, of which he held 88%. At current prices, the windfall would make him a billionaire. It would also mean an interminable nightmare of lawsuits and threats that Karpelès—who is also in personal bankruptcy—is desperate to avoid. He says he’d happily give the money back if it came to him, but the estimated 60% tax triggered in the process would be catastrophic.

“I never expected to get anything out of this,” Karpelès tells me when we meet in Tokyo in March. “It would bring more trouble than anything.”

We’re on the second floor of a Japanese café, in a stuffy meeting room that Karpelès says is not much bigger than his jail cell. Deprived of a computer behind bars, he passed time by measuring the room using the length of his notebook. (After his release, Karpelès sent friends a chart of the 70 pounds he’d lost while detained.) It’s the first day in Tokyo that finally feels like spring, cherry blossoms in bloom, but he has holed up here in the café because it’s roughly equidistant from the offices of his various lawyers, as well as the bankruptcy trustee, whom he meets with regularly out of a sense of “duty” to his former customers. He’s been so busy, he says, he didn’t have time to shave that morning.

Karpelès took control of Mt. Gox—the name is an acronym for Magic: The Gathering Online eXchange, after the trading card game that inspired the original site—in 2011 from founder Jed McCaleb. Employees don’t remember Karpelès ever seeming fazed about anything: He took meetings from a vibrating massage chair and churned out combs using a 3D printer he’d bought for the office. His hallmark reply to questions: “Should be fine.”

But he’s lately developed a sense of gallows humor uncharacteristic of his Mt. Gox days. Even if he wanted to buy Bitcoin today, he doubts he could find an exchange that would take his money, he laughs, and notes that it’s been a few months since he’s received any death threats—“a new record.” He turns serious, though, when he recounts the sleepless nights in February 2014 when he says he first discovered that all of Mt. Gox’s Bitcoins were missing. “I think this really is the worst experience for anyone to have in life,” he says. Still, he’s not sure he could have done the job better. “If I knew at the time what I know today, I would have done things differently, of course,” he says with a practiced tone. “But based on the information I had at the time, and the situation at the time, I still think that I’ve done the best I could do with what I had.”

The question of what Karpelès knew, and when, though, remains more of a mystery than even who stole the coins. Bitcoin’s public ledger, or blockchain, allows anyone to trace the path of transactions, showing the wallets where Mt. Gox’s Bitcoins went. But the same blockchain analysis, multiple experts have confirmed, has also revealed an unsettling fact: By mid-2013, Mt. Gox had already lost all its Bitcoins—eight months before it admitted so publicly.

The timing of this insolvency, analysis shows, coincided with the Willy bot kicking into high gear—perhaps providing a hint as to Karpelès’s true motivations. “I feel that this is a reaction to this revelation that okay, all the money is gone,” says Michael Gronager, CEO of Chainalysis, which was hired by the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee to investigate the Bitcoins’ disappearance. Yet it’s also why he doesn’t believe Karpelès was planning to run away with the 200,000 Bitcoins. “I think that had he found them before he went bankrupt, he would never have gone bankrupt,” says Gronager. Rather, he says, Karpelès would have used the hoard to cover his losses.



When Mt. Gox froze Bitcoin withdrawals in 2014, a customer named Kolin Burges hopped a flight from London to Tokyo. For more than two weeks, until Mt. Gox declared bankruptcy, he kept vigil outside the exchange’s headquarters, holding a sign reading, “MTGOX WHERE IS OUR MONEY?” Other protesters soon joined him, demonstrating the frustration of Mt. Gox customers worldwide.

Kim Nilsson was just as vexed, but standing in the snow wasn’t his style. A modest Swedish software engineer with a goatee and a quiet voice, Nilsson, who also owned Bitcoins at Mt. Gox, had never before worked on blockchain technology. But he had a reputation for getting to the bottom of the toughest software bugs; in his off-time, he’d been known to beat all the levels of Super Mario Bros. 2 in an afternoon sitting. And that’s how he approached Mt. Gox: “It was basically just the world’s biggest puzzle at the time—like whoever solves this, imagine the recognition.”

Kim Nilsson, the software engineer who cracked the Mt. Gox case, standing on the street near Shinjuku Station in Tokyo.
Kim Nilsson, the software engineer who cracked the Mt. Gox case, standing on the street near Shinjuku Station in Tokyo. Photographed by Eric Rechsteiner for Fortune
He teamed up with some other Mt. Gox customers to launch WizSec, a blockchain security firm dedicated to cracking the case. But while the company quickly dissolved, Nilsson stayed on the case in secret, teaching himself blockchain analysis and painstakingly tracing the money stolen from Mt. Gox. Although Nilsson started off investigating Karpelès’s role in the theft, he soon realized the CEO was just as eager as he was to know what happened. At a time when Karpelès needed friends most, the WizSec team scored an invite to his apartment by offering to bring the Frenchman the ingredients he needed to bake his famous apple quiche. Soon, Karpelès was feeding Nilsson internal Mt. Gox data that could help solve the case. “I wish I had stolen the money, because then I could just give it back,” Karpelès told them at the time.

Over the next four years, Nilsson estimates he spent a year-and-a-half’s worth of full-time hours pursuing the Mt. Gox hackers. He’s never been paid for his work; his 12.7 Bitcoin claim at Mt. Gox makes him one of its smallest creditors. To J. Maurice, who helped found WizSec but left the company early on and was not involved in the investigation, Nilsson’s effort epitomizes the virtues of Bitcoin—a decentralized system free of government control, which relies instead on individual users to sustain it. “Kim is humble, he doesn’t brag, he doesn’t even want to get rich. He’s just working hard on something for years as his passion project,” Maurice says. “That’s what Bitcoin is.”

By early 2016, Nilsson had a suspect. As he tracked the stolen funds, he saw that, of the 650,000 Bitcoins reported stolen from Mt. Gox, 630,000 had gone straight into wallets controlled by the same person. That person also had an account at Mt. Gox, associated with the username WME. Then Nilsson stumbled across an old post in an online Bitcoin forum in which someone with the handle WME had thrown a tantrum, complaining that another cryptocurrency exchange had frozen his funds. “Give [me] my CLEAN MONEY!” read the post. In the process, WME dropped clues that he owned some of the Bitcoin wallets in question. But the big break came when the same user posted a letter from his lawyer, his first and last name visible for the whole world to see. Nilsson, as he routinely did with his findings, dashed off an email to Gary Alford, a special agent with the IRS in New York who has helped catch cybercriminals.

Then one scorching day last July, police stormed a beach in Greece to arrest a Russian citizen vacationing with his family. U.S. federal prosecutors charged Alexander Vinnik, a 38-year-old IT specialist, with laundering 530,000 of the stolen Mt. Gox Bitcoins through his WME wallets and other accounts. They also accused him of helping to run the exchange BTC-e, whose primary purpose was allegedly to launder money. It is plausible, investigators say, that BTC-e was founded specifically to launder funds stolen from Mt. Gox. Blockchain analysis shows that the hack that devastated Mt. Gox began in autumn 2011, around the time BTC-e started up. Keys to Mt. Gox’s “hot wallet”—its online Bitcoin repository—were stolen and copied, compromising the exchange’s deposit addresses. So for the next two years, in nine out of 10 instances, coins were being stolen as soon as they came in, says Chainalysis’ Gronager, who is also a creditor: “It meant that you had a hole in the bottom of the well, and someone was just draining money.”

Karpelès claims he never noticed because the hackers stole small amounts at a time, and the balances generally seemed to move upward. “Bitcoin didn’t exactly decrease,” he says. “It’s just that they didn’t increase as much as they should.”

Nilsson, who believes he has convincingly linked Vinnik to at least 100,000 more Mt. Gox Bitcoins than the feds allege, still doesn’t know whether he helped the government’s investigation or simply confirmed its conclusions. With Vinnik fighting extradition from Greece and five outstanding defendants whose names remain redacted in the U.S. indictment, the IRS won’t comment on the “active and ongoing” investigation. But Kathryn Haun, a former federal prosecutor who signed off on the indictment, says Vinnik’s use of Bitcoin helps clearly connect him to the crime: “At first blush what seemed unsolvable turned out to be traceable through the use of digital currency.”

For Karpelès, Vinnik’s arrest reinforced a long-held theory: that Russian Bitcoin exchange administrators were behind a series of ­denial-of-service and other cyberattacks that hit Mt. Gox in 2011. Says Karpelès, “What he did, Mt. Gox is a victim of this, which means that all creditors are victims of this, and I am too a victim of this.”

Vinnik, who has denied the charges, has not been charged with stealing from Mt. Gox. But the magnitude and duration of his involvement points to some familiarity with the thieves whose profits he was allegedly laundering: “I assume at least he knows where to send the check,” says Nilsson.

Still, there’s an ironic punch line to the case: Because the stolen Bitcoins were sold right away, allegedly by Vinnik and long before Mt. Gox disclosed the hack, victims lost much more, in dollar value, than the hackers ever made—which, according to Chainalysis, was only about $20 million.

And as soon as the Bitcoins were converted to cash, the blockchain trail was broken. That means that even if authorities seize Bitcoins from the suspects, there won’t be anything to prove they’re from Mt. Gox. Sean Hays, a creditor in Arizona who says his 338 Bitcoin claim would be “life-changing,” adds, “I’ll be glad to have part of it back, but I think there will always be the hunt for where’s the rest?”

But for Burges, the key question that inspired his protest has finally been answered. “We know where the coins went, and we won’t get them back,” he says. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s solved.”

For almost four years, Josh Jones assumed he’d eventually receive his rightful portion of his nearly 44,000 Bitcoins locked inside Mt. Gox. By mid-2017, Bitcoin’s price was soaring, and Mt. Gox had enough to pay out the $430 million it owed in claims several times over. Then last September, Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi, a top restructuring lawyer also representing Takata in the airbag-maker’s bankruptcy, broke the news: Under Japanese bankruptcy law, the value of creditors’ claims were capped at what they were worth back in 2014: $483 per Bitcoin. “That’s just crazy,” says Jones, who held most of the coins on behalf of his clients at Bitcoin Builder, the service he built to facilitate arbitrage trading at Mt. Gox in its final weeks. “That can’t be how it’s going to work out.”

But while there was little Jones could do back home in Santa Monica, another major creditor took it upon himself to ensure the Bitcoins would be fully divvied up among Mt. Gox victims. Richard Folsom, an American who worked for Bain & Co. in Tokyo before founding one of the first private equity shops in Japan, hired the biggest Japanese law firm and came up with a plan: What if Mt. Gox wasn’t technically bankrupt anymore? Their petition for “civil rehabilitation” of Mt. Gox, filed in November, is now pending before the Tokyo District Court; an outside examiner recommended in its favor in February. Shin Fukuoka, the partner at Nishimura & Asahi leading the effort, is confident it will be approved, as early as the end of April. “We think that the court has sufficient understanding about the problems in the case of proceeding with bankruptcy,” Fukuoka says.

Those problems, of course, include the fact that the majority of Mt. Gox’s assets would otherwise accrue to Mark Karpelès. “Such an outcome would be a travesty,” says Jesse Powell, CEO of Kraken, the San Francisco–based Bitcoin exchange appointed to help investigate and distribute Mt. Gox claims (and himself a substantial creditor).

If Fukuoka’s plan works, it would be the first time in Japan that a business “abolished” in bankruptcy was rehabilitated, he says: “These are very unique circumstances.” In a traditional civil rehabilitation, once the court gives the green light, it typically takes six months for the plan to be finalized—meaning optimistically, creditors could begin to get paid, preferably in Bitcoins, as soon as late this year. Fukuoka says he’s also considering mandating further investigation into the stolen Bitcoins as part of the rehab plan, in hopes more will be recovered. (A $75 million lawsuit from CoinLab that has held up the bankruptcy process could be sidestepped by setting aside a legal reserve fund in the meantime, he adds.) It would be an extraordinary outcome for creditors like Thomas Braziel, managing partner of New York–based hedge fund B.E. Capital Management, who has bought up $1 million worth of claims at 80¢ on the dollar, believing he will turn a profit no matter what. “Of course, if the rehabilitation happens, it’s a bonanza, and you make eight, nine, 10 times your money,” Braziel says.

That would be a relief to Mt. Gox’s disgraced CEO, who says he’s had enough of the cryptocurrency business to last a lifetime: “The only thing I’m touching related to cryptocurrency is how to solve this bankruptcy. Nothing more,” says Karpelès. Besides, he has lost faith in the initial promise of digital money: “Bitcoin right now is, I believe, doomed.”

Since his release from jail two summers ago, Karpelès has been moving apartments every few months out of concerns for his own safety. During three months of all-day interrogations while detained, he refused to confess to the accusations Japanese authorities threw at him—including, at one point, that he was Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s mysterious founder. Still, despite what he feels is a weak case against him, he thinks the odds are he’ll be found guilty, at least during this first trial; Japan, which has a more than 99% conviction rate, is also one of a few countries that allows prosecutors to appeal an acquittal twice. In a year or two, he could be sent back behind bars. “After I came out, I felt like in a kind of dream, like I didn’t feel things were real,” he says, over a slice of cake with cream and cherries. “Even today I’m not sure yet.”

Karpelès, though, is not on trial for what even his sympathizers fault him for the most: lying about Mt. Gox’s insolvency. “When Mt. Gox didn’t have any of the coins, he was getting new deposits from other customers to pay off other people—kind of like a Bernie Madoff,” says Kelman, the lawyer.

For now, Karpelès, who’s never been to the United States (and isn’t allowed to leave Japan while on trial), is leveraging his mastery of Japanese and the country’s formal business customs. The arrest of Vinnik has made it easier to find work, he says, by lifting some blame from Karpelès. Even so, the taint of Mt. Gox follows him. “He is unhirable,” says Mike Kayamori, the CEO of Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Quoine.

Yet earlier this year, Mark Karpelès landed a big new job: chief technology officer at London Trust Media, a Denver-based corporation that runs the largest virtual private network (VPN) service in the world. It has recently been expanding into cryptocurrency-related ventures. “I am more than willing to give a second chance to Mark in this fight’s critical hour,” says Andrew Lee, cofounder and chairman of London Trust Media, who also briefly ran Mt. Gox’s U.S. operations.

Even if Mt. Gox’s rehabilitation succeeds, the company is unlikely to take another voyage. Still, that hasn’t stopped Karpelès from dreaming up schemes to get back the missing 650,000 Bitcoins. Even if the original coins can’t be retrieved, perhaps Mt. Gox could be revived long enough to generate revenue to finally make creditors whole; Karpelès also says he’s found one exchange that seems interested in pledging some of its own profits to victims.

But others, such as Kraken’s Powell, say the hole is simply too deep to fill. Besides, even if Mt. Gox did reopen, who would want to trade there? Adds Burges, the Mt. Gox protester, “It’s like having another ship called the Titanic.” For him, closure means letting the rest of the Bitcoins go down with the ship.